December 2023

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

T-minus 5 minutes from attack from mjo812

This is to be expected with a strong nino. This winter is going to happen from Jan 15 to feb 15

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

It doesn’t matter anymore whether we have an El Niño like this December or a La Niña like last January. We keep getting these  ridiculous Pacific Jet extensions that bring record warmth to North America. My guess is that all the warmth in the Western to Central Pacific MJO regions are driving this phenomenon. This time with the orientation in the ridge, the warmest departures will probably line up further west than last January. But even in a warming planet, it’s noteworthy to get two consecutive winters with monthly departures so high for the North American continent.

 

[snowman19]

It doesn’t matter anymore whether we have an El Niño like this December or a La Niña like last January. We keep getting these  ridiculous Pacific Jet extensions that bring record warmth to North America. My guess is that all the warmth in the Western to Central Pacific MJO regions are driving this phenomenon. This time with the orientation in the ridge, the warmest departures will probably line up a bit further west than last January. But even in a warming planet, it’s noteworthy to get two consecutive winters with monthly departures so high for the North American continent.




 

Eric Webb (love him or hate him) makes an interesting point, is AGW making the warmth even more dramatic?

[the_other_guy]

31F. Cant wait to see reports from city this morning.

 

UHI thrives in this warm up type of day

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb (love him or hate him) makes an interesting point, is AGW making the warmth even more dramatic?

Higher ocean heat content is increasing the convection in the warmer MJO phases.

[Allsnow]

Here you can see the slow down in 6/7 like the OLR maps were showing days ago 

 

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Here you can see the slow down in 6/7 like the OLR maps were showing days ago 

 

 

Especially with the bias corrected charts.

 

[the_other_guy]

can we establish that the linear conclusion between MJO and the type of winter weather you expect has been disrupted by AGW?

 

it seems that guys that are relying on  MJO phases for pattern changes have been shooting blanks for the past few years.

[snowman19]

Here you can see the slow down in 6/7 like the OLR maps were showing days ago 
 
 

As suspected, once the MJO gets into phase 7, it constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave and slows down. Expect the associated WWB to also increase in strength as we get closer in time. This is almost certainly going to result in substantial warming of Nino regions 3 and 3.4 at the end of this month….it has a lot of warmth in the subsurface and OHC to work with…..

[Allsnow]

@MJO812 you still expecting this wave to race through the warm phases? 

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

can we establish that the linear conclusion between MJO and the type of winter weather you expect has been disrupted by AGW?

 

it seems that guys that are relying on  MJO phases for pattern changes have been shooting blanks for the past few years.

I began to suspect it after seeing the extreme warmth in December 2015 when we had a record MJO 5 for a super El Niño. But we recently got confirmation in 2019 that this is the case. It’s not just chance that we have had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row which never happened before. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle

• M. K. Roxy, 
• Panini Dasgupta, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Tamaki Suematsu, 
• Chidong Zhang & 
• Daehyun Kim 

Nature volume 575, pages 647–651 (2019)Cite this article

• 12k Accesses

• 91 Citations

• 498 Altmetric

• Metrics details

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation¹, tropical cyclones^2,3 and the monsoons^{4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000–20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases¹¹, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10⁵ km² (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10⁵ km²(the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador

[Brian5671]

maybe we get some cold mid Jan into mid Feb and a storm or two but looks like this wont be a big winter now that December and into early Jan look to be toast...

[North and West]

I began to suspect it after seeing the extreme warmth in December 2015 when we had a record MJO 5 for a super El Niño. But we recently got confirmation in 2019 that this is the case. It’s not just chance that we have had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row which never happened before. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4

Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle

• M. K. Roxy, 
• Panini Dasgupta, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Tamaki Suematsu, 
• Chidong Zhang & 
• Daehyun Kim 

Nature volume 575, pages 647–651 (2019)Cite this article

• 12k Accesses
  
• 91 Citations
  
• 498 Altmetric
  
• Metrics details
  

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation¹, tropical cyclones^2,3 and the monsoons^{4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000–20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases¹¹, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10⁵ km² (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10⁵ km²(the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador

What does this mean for people who don’t speak nerd?


.

[North and West]

maybe we get some cold mid Jan into mid Feb and a storm or two but looks like this wont be a big winter now that December and into early Jan look to be toast...

.

[bluewave]

Just now, North and West said:

What does this mean for people who don’t speak nerd?


.

That the warming of the Western Pacific loads the dice for warmer winter outcomes in our area. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

That the warming of the Western Pacific loads the dice for warmer winter outcomes in our area. 

Looks like Nina returns next winter which is usually a 3 year run. The snow drought might continue for a while if that happens 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@MJO812 you still expecting this wave to race through the warm phases? 

I'm staying put but  the change is looking less likely for this month. 

I will give credit where it's due.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like Nina returns next winter which is usually a 3 year run. The snow drought might continue for a while if that happens 

We all might have to move near the lakes .

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm staying put but  the change is looking less likely for this month. 

I will give credit where it's due.

you owe some apologies around here.....

[suzook]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

maybe we get some cold mid Jan into mid Feb and a storm or two but looks like this wont be a big winter now that December and into early Jan look to be toast...

Toast?? LOL. a bit of an exaggeration, but I do think the snow comes in January.

[Brian5671]

Just now, suzook said:

Toast?? LOL. a bit of an exaggeration, but I do think the snow comes in January.

I do too-but models are fairly warm temp wise through about 1/1....Pattern change hopefully comes but we are starting to kick the can forward 

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

maybe we get some cold mid Jan into mid Feb and a storm or two but looks like this wont be a big winter now that December and into early Jan look to be toast...

if the second part of that statement confirms, the first part will confirm. Which, doesnt say much, but says it all…

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you owe some apologies around here.....

The month isn't over yet 

[the_other_guy]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you owe some apologies around here.....

stop this bs. this is why people are so turned off by this forum.

 

He doesn’t owe an apology to anybody. he’s looking at charts and posting what he sees. You already writing off Winter until January 15 like you have a clue.

Should I call you out if we get snow on January 3?

 

Ridiculous

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Higher ocean heat content is increasing the convection in the warmer MJO phases.

It's not restricted to the warmer MJO phases.  In general, our Oceans are very, very warm.   We are increasingly breaking single day precipitation event records as a result of warmer temperatures as a consequence of, in part, higher oceanic heat content. 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The overnight model runs have gotten even stronger with the PAC jet late month. This is pretty incredible
 

 

 

 

 

Such jet streaks often develop during moderate or strong El Niño events and high amplitude passage of the MJO through Phases 5-6-7. Below is a composite of Phase 5 (amplitude 1.5 or above) and El Niño Region 3.4 anomaly of 1.0 or above and then rolled forward five days.

Day 0:

Day 1:

Day 2:

Day 3:

 

Day 4:

Day 5:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

It's not restricted to the warmer MJO phases.  In general, our Oceans are very, very warm. 

But the long term convection is increasing faster over the parts of the oceans which contain the warmest MJO phases. 

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the long term convection is increasing faster over the parts of the oceans which contain the warmest MJO phases. 

So we might not see any more snow events if that's the case. 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So we might not see any more snow events if that's the case. 

You see this is the problem with this forum. Bluewave is vey smart but does have a warm bias. Posting red maps over and over again doesn't mean it's not going to snow anymore. LOL..It's a December strong nino..they all turn out mild and snowless.No big surprise here.Maybe we'll see something in January, February and March.