December 2023

[EastonSN+]

Wild that April too!! 

[EastonSN+]

Fantastic September. 1888 seemed to be a great long summer season, inclusive of an epic blizzard.

[Blue Dream]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because one is hi res and the other one isn't.  Have fun talking about the warmth on here. 

I will be back once the sanity returns .

I guess you forgot you're only allowed to talk about torches and how every MJO phase is now warm for us

[EastonSN+]

Final one - epic summer season in 1888. That plus the blizzard sign me up any day.

 

[Rjay]

Just now, Blue Dream said:

I guess you forgot you're only allowed to talk about torches and how every MJO phase is now warm for us

Bluewave > weenie of the decade runner-up 

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Anywho…close the shade for a while on cold/snow in our location. Hopefully Sunday is interesting with the wind. Looks like another sloppy jets game 

Agree, it will take awhile for the pac jet to get shifted. So maybe we can get an occasional snow shower/mood flakes. It’s too early in the season to start pulling hairs out of our heads watching each model run. As for the jets, this season they could play sloppy inside a closed dome

[Blue Dream]

Just now, Rjay said:

Bluewave > weenie of the decade runner-up 

I don't know about that but he certainly does seem to love talking about warmth

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Rjay said:

Bluewave > weenie of the decade runner-up 

I love both posters to be honest and for different reasons of course. They both make me look forward to logging into this site daily.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree, it will take awhile for the pac jet to get shifted. So maybe we can get an occasional snow shower/mood flakes. It’s too early in the season to start pulling hairs out of our heads watching each model run. As for the jets, this season they could play sloppy inside a closed dome

Haha. Very true 

 

I have G. Wilson and Hall on my fantasy team…it’s been very frustrating year 

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bluewave > weenie of the decade runner-up 

Maybe send him a hat for a prize 

 

[EastonSN+]

Final snip and the downer for 1888. Christmas Grinch torch we all know too well.

[Allsnow]

Looks like Sunday and Monday will hit 60 in nyc 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

I don't know about that but he certainly does seem to love talking about warmth

He's talking about the actual pattern.  If it looked cold he'd say that. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I love both posters to be honest and for different reasons of course. They both make me look forward to logging into this site daily.

Always loved metsfan but he's lost his mind. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

I don't know about that but he certainly does seem to love talking about warmth

Each forum tends to have its own flavor.

If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you.

If you want warmth optimism this is your forum.

I like to look at all three as you get a well rounded viewpoint.

Taking all three, looking like warmth through the 20th, variable to the 25th and a potential favorable snowfall patter after the 25.

Also known as a typical El nino December lol.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Models are still playing catch up with how warm North America is going to get from mid to late December with a crazy just extension like that. International falls is already around +10 after one of its warmest starts to December. So there is a chance that those double digit departures could be maintained. Not good news for people that like ice fishing up in those areas.

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That signal for a raging, extended PAC jet come late December is crazy

So December is over? 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Models are still playing catch up with how warm North America is going to get from mid to late December with a crazy just extension like that. International falls is already around +10 after one of its warmest starts to December. So there is a chance that those double digit departures could be maintained. Not good news for people that like ice fishing up in those areas.

Thanks for this.

I wish we had the tools back in 1888, would love to see what drove that years pattern.

1.) I am surprised on how warm that entire year was! April through December was an absolute torch. Perhaps it was the same type of setup we see now.

2.) It's incredible how wide the daily temperature spreads were especially in the winter months. Shows how much the heat island effect has taken hold.

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Each forum tends to have its own flavor.

If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you.

If you want warmth optimism this is your forum.

I like to look at all three as you get a well rounded viewpoint.

Taking all three, looking like warmth through the 20th, variable to the 25th and a potential favorable snowfall patter after the 25.

Also known as a typical El nino December lol.

The New England banter and bickering in the main thread is absolutely hilarious at times, especially when it’s more lighthearted. Some real characters there. 

[North and West]

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Always loved metsfan but he's lost his mind. 

The pattern is getting to people.    Also on other boards there's talk of a big pattern change towards XMAS.  Someone will be wrong one way or the other.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Each forum tends to have its own flavor.

If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you.

If you want warmth optimism this is your forum.

I like to look at all three as you get a well rounded viewpoint.

Taking all three, looking like warmth through the 20th, variable to the 25th and a potential favorable snowfall patter after the 25.

Also known as a typical El nino December lol.

I don’t think many posters here want warm/boring in the winter. I think it’s realism and people reacting/trolling when the realism isn’t what they want to read. People here forget when Bluewave was analyzing the trends and how the background state promotes big blizzards for our sub forum more often than the past. 

I don’t think you can deny that the WPAC warm pool persisting for several winters and -PDO have enhanced a Nina like state in the winter which promotes us being warmer/West and Plains colder. Maybe this year the Nino can overcome that and we get a great second half, hopefully we see this. In any event I learn a ton when I read Bluewave’s analyses as well as others like GaWx, 40/70 Benchmark etc and I definitely appreciate that work. People need to chill out/calm down since we’re only at 12/8 and have 3 months to go. And at the end there’s nothing we can do about any of these factors anyway. It’s not like Bluewave or any supposed “warm” poster can change anything with their posts. As I said and should be obvious, the 2000-2018 period with repeated big winters/storms won’t last forever and we’re due for a boring stretch. The background AGW is also working against us but not to the point where it’s prohibitive yet. 

[North and West]

I love catching up on sixty-plus posts in the morning and finding that everyone is acting and bickering and bitching like my mother and her friends, who are all over 70.

Everyone is really suffering from snow withdrawal, after getting hit after warm syrupy hit of snow in the past twenty years.


.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

I wish we had the tools back in 1888, would love to see what drove that years pattern.

1.) I am surprised on how warm that entire year was! April through December was an absolute torch. Perhaps it was the same type of setup we see now.

2.) It's incredible how wide the daily temperature spreads were especially in the winter months. Shows how much the heat island effect has taken hold.

Models are starting to show 5 sigma jet speed departures north Japan even before the main extension later this month. The EAMT that Eric references is a direct result of the MJO in the Maritime Continent phases interacting with the El Niño.

 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t think many posters here want warm/boring in the winter. I think it’s realism and people reacting/trolling when the realism isn’t what they want to read. People here forget when Bluewave was analyzing the trends and how the background state promotes big blizzards for our sub forum more often than the past. 

I don’t think you can deny that the WPAC warm pool persisting for several winters and -PDO have enhanced a Nina like state in the winter which promotes us being warmer/West and Plains colder. Maybe this year the Nino can overcome that and we get a great second half, hopefully we see this. In any event I learn a ton when I read Bluewave’s analyses as well as others like GaWx, 40/70 Benchmark etc and I definitely appreciate that work. People need to chill out/calm down since we’re only at 12/8 and have 3 months to go. And at the end there’s nothing we can do about any of these factors anyway. It’s not like Bluewave or any supposed “warm” poster can change anything with their posts. As I said and should be obvious, the 2000-2018 period with repeated big winters/storms won’t last forever and we’re due for a boring stretch. The background AGW is also working against us but not to the point where it’s prohibitive yet. 

I do agree the WPAC waters are warm now and lately. I do not know if it's static or a cycle and will cool. Only time will tell.

I do not look at posts from those who are predicting cold/snow as all trolling (there are trollers both ways), rather I like to believe this is their true viewpoint and they are entitled to it whether I agree or not. 

My current view is we are in a warm pattern like 1888, the late 80s through the 90s etc. I do believe that in the future we will go back to 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, albeit 1 or 2 degrees warmer.

 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models are starting to show 5 sigma jet speed departures north Japan even before the main extension later this month. The EAMT that Eric references is a direct result of the MJO in the Maritime Continent phases interacting with the El Niño.

 

See I would love to get this analysis for 1888 LOL. That year was an absolute furnace, and I have to wonder if that setup was close to this year in some ways.

Side note I would pay almost anything to be able to get a radar loop from the 1888 blizzard. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

See I would love to get this analysis for 1888 LOL. That year was an absolute furnace, and I have to wonder if that setup was close to this year in some ways.

Side note I would pay almost anything to be able to get a radar look from the 1888 blizzard. 

or what the storm would look like on today's model runs leading up to it...

[donsutherland1]

The MJO continues to slog through the Marine Continent right now. It still appears likely to exist Phases 4-6 around or just after mid-month. The ECMWF (bias corrected) has a notably slower passage, but it remains an outlier.

At the same time, a powerful EPO+ Pacific Trough prevails. The combination of the MJO's progression and the EPO+ suggests that Arctic air will likely be unavailable to be tapped for the foreseeable future. Even as the upcoming weekend storm is followed by a period of cooler but not very cold weather, another warmup lies ahead. It still appears more likely than not that at least some colder air will begin to push into the region in the closing week of December, though the guidance could still be rushing the transition. At least for now, the question seems to concern more the timing of the transition (last week of December vs. first week of January) rather than whether there will be a transition. Of course, skill level at those extended timeframes is low.

Fun EPO+ Facts for NYC:

• Since 1950, there were 6 cases where the EPO reached positive levels at least comparable to the current event for 3 or more days during the first week of December
• All 6 cases saw the lowest temperature during the December 21-31 period reach at least 22 degrees in NYC
• One-third of the cases saw one or more days of light measurable snowfall (highest total snowfall: 5.6", 1967)
• Snowfall after the first week of December for those cases came to the following amounts: 1951-52: 19.7"; 1952-53: 8.4"; 1952-54: 13.6"; 1967-68: 16.3"; 1987-88: 18.0"; 1996-97: 9.9"
• The biggest snowstorm following the first week of December produced the following amounts: 1951-52: 5.8"; 1952-53; 2.0"; 1953-54: 8.6"; 1967-68: 6.6"; 1987-88: 5.8"; 1996-97: 3.5"
• 1951-52, 1953-54, and 1987-88 were El Niño winters

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

See I would love to get this analysis for 1888 LOL. That year was an absolute furnace, and I have to wonder if that setup was close to this year in some ways.

Side note I would pay almost anything to be able to get a radar loop from the 1888 blizzard. 

December 1888 250 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly:

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 1888 250 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly:

Thanks for this!

I may be reading that map incorrectly, however it looks like there is a trough in the east. Why were the temps so high that December with a trough? Perhaps the positive EPO flooding the continent with marine air?