December 2023

[JustinRP37]

Listen, I am about as negative as they come, but this place is really ridiculous now. This weekend will TORCH, but month to date, I am 1.7 degrees above normal in my area. Again you can all talk about the city etc, but New England and north NY has not been as bad as you all make it sound. And the anomaly over the Hudson Bay is quite warm, but if you notice that is largely over the water itself thanks to the summer. Decembers, once again, are RARELY snowy in these part until the last week. It can snow in an above normal temperature pattern and it does. It has also been snowing mood snow all day here with a light accumulation. Next week looks average for the time of year before another warmup on the weekend. 

[JustinRP37]

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Listen, I am about as negative as they come, but this place is really ridiculous now. This weekend will TORCH, but month to date, I am 1.7 degrees above normal in my area. Again you can all talk about the city etc, but New England and north NY has not been as bad as you all make it sound. And the anomaly over the Hudson Bay is quite warm, but if you notice that is largely over the water itself thanks to the summer. Decembers, once again, are RARELY snowy in these part until the last week. It can snow in an above normal temperature pattern and it does. It has also been snowing mood snow all day here with a light accumulation. Next week looks average for the time of year before another warmup on the weekend. 

I don’t understand why the terms like positive and negative keep getting thrown around when discussing weather model output and patterns that are outside our control to influence. 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I was wondering why I didn’t see the weeklies posted all over this site today…

 

4-7 mjo….enough said 

I have to comment because you are posting lies. 

No one has said that the weeklies looked good before the 20th. They still look really good around the holidays and beyond .

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they have looked the same for the last two to three weeks and have been moving forward in time. remarkably consistent, actually

Exactly

I wish people would stop posting lies or troll.  That's why people are posting elsewhere.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air. 

Bingo

[vegan_edible]

Just now, bluewave said:

I don’t understand why the terms like positive and negative keep getting thrown around when discussing weather model output and patterns that are outside our control to influence. 

i think there is an interesting psychological phenomenon when it comes weather and specifically the issue of lack of snow itself. whether we like it or not, we're all snow weenies here. it gets us excited to track and see the outcome. its nearly akin to gambling. we know we have ZERO control of the outcome and thats half of the excitement. when the terms positive or negative get tossed around it is a display of emotive nature, especially considering we all got jipped last year, so we have high hopes of a positive outcome, but someone displaying legitimate scientific evidence will be viewed as negative due to playing mental gymnastics

you probably already knew that, but i wanted to follow up because it really is insane how the past week has been with subjective feelings being projected onto objective outcomes

that being said, we better get a nor'easter in the metro this year

[Brian5671]

Snow is serious business.  LOL 

[North and West]

Snow is serious business.  LOL 

My favorite part of this is when I’m reading weather boards, my wife asks, “So, how are the weenies?”


.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air. 

That’s partially true. It’s rare we have a snowstorm where it’s snowing in the teens. Arctic air usually means clear skies and strong CAA. You really want to be right on the boundary where it’s just cold enough. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s partially true. It’s rare we have a snowstorm where it’s snowing in the teens. Arctic air usually means clear skies and strong CAA. You really want to be right on the boundary where it’s just cold enough. 

Yep-upper 20's to around 32 does the trick

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i think there is an interesting psychological phenomenon when it comes weather and specifically the issue of lack of snow itself. whether we like it or not, we're all snow weenies here. it gets us excited to track and see the outcome. its nearly akin to gambling. we know we have ZERO control of the outcome and thats half of the excitement. when the terms positive or negative get tossed around it is a display of emotive nature, especially considering we all got jipped last year, so we have high hopes of a positive outcome, but someone displaying legitimate scientific evidence will be viewed as negative due to playing mental gymnastics

you probably already knew that, but i wanted to follow up because it really is insane how the past week has been with subjective feelings being projected onto objective outcomes

that being said, we better get a nor'easter in the metro this year

I understand the sentiment. So while we can’t control the lack of snow, we can have control over how we respond to it. Keeping expectations low in patterns like this can help. I find some of the biggest weather disappointments of the past occurred at times when expectations were raised unreasonably high. Not when difficult patterns gave clues so the lack of snow was expected. 
 

 

[JustinRP37]

40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s partially true. It’s rare we have a snowstorm where it’s snowing in the teens. Arctic air usually means clear skies and strong CAA. You really want to be right on the boundary where it’s just cold enough. 

That's the point. Cold air holds far less moisture. Usually if you are in the low teens and below you are dealing with an incredible dry air mass. We can get snow though just usually not like our bigger storms. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I don’t understand why the terms like positive and negative keep getting thrown around when discussing weather model output and patterns that are outside our control to influence. 

I guess from my perspective a negative would be a winter like last year where you couldn't even really ski on decent man made snow. It was slush. To some 60+ in December is a positive, but to most on these boards they are a negative. I'll roll with whatever I have to roll with and jut get outside. I enjoy being outside unless is it pouring down rain and 40 with gusty winds... I guess kind of like the forecast for Sunday night

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I guess from my perspective a negative would be a winter like last year where you couldn't even really ski on decent man made snow. It was slush. To some 60+ in December is a positive, but to most on these boards they are a negative. I'll roll with whatever I have to roll with and jut get outside. I enjoy being outside unless is it pouring down rain and 40 with gusty winds... I guess kind of like the forecast for Sunday night.

My greatest weather disappointment was missing the Nemo 50DBZ  jackpot zone with 6”+ per hour rates and 30-40”totals. I would gladly take 3 winters in a row like 2001-2002 for just one storm experience like that.

[vegan_edible]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My greatest weather disappointment was missing the Nemo 50DBZ  jackpot zone with 6”+ per hour rates and 30-40”totals. I would gladly take 3 winters in a row like 2001-2002 for just one storm experience like that.

i was 6 then, i wish i remember this

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My greatest weather disappointment was missing the Nemo 50DBZ  jackpot zone with 6”+ per hour rates and 30-40”totals. I would gladly take 3 winters in a row like 2001-2002 for just one storm experience like that.

I’d take March 1888 over that in a heartbeat. Hands down the greatest blizzard in our region in the last 200 years. Based on what I have read the snow in the park was way under measured. It was likely our largest total of all time using modern measuring. The pics of tunnels cut through drifts in Brooklyn are on a level we have never seen. Hurricane force gusts and 30”+ totals. 

[uofmiami]

 

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i was 6 then, i wish i remember this

You're 16?

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My greatest weather disappointment was missing the Nemo 50DBZ  jackpot zone with 6”+ per hour rates and 30-40”totals. I would gladly take 3 winters in a row like 2001-2002 for just one storm experience like that.

Nassau County would’ve had 18”+ if so much of the start wasn’t wasted on sleet and rain. I’m sure you remember-it was pounding sleet in Long Beach for probably 2 hours as the heaviest of the precip was overhead. And there was still 10-11” snow after. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’d take March 1888 over that in a heartbeat. Hands down the greatest blizzard in our region in the last 200 years. Based on what I have read the snow in the park was way under measured. It was likely our largest total of all time using modern measuring. The pics of tunnels cut through drifts in Brooklyn are on a level we have never seen. Hurricane force gusts and 30”+ totals. 

Yeah, that would be one I would love to experience also from the 1800s. My number one pick from the 1700s would be NY Harbor freezing over in 1780. My guess is that January 1780 averaged around 15°-17° in NYC. The coldest recorded month since the late 1800s in NYC was Feb 34° at 19.9°.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/05/opinion/a-cold-snap.html

In the winter of 1779-1780, New York Harbor lay frozen for five weeks. It was possible to walk to Staten Island. The Hudson River was a broken pavement of ice, and by spring nearly every tree in the city, and much of its furniture, had been burned for heat. Those were the days before official weather records were kept, so no one knows exactly how cold that terrible winter was, when even the Chesapeake froze over.

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nassau County would’ve had 18”+ if so much of the start wasn’t wasted on sleet and rain. I’m sure you remember-it was pounding sleet in Long Beach for probably 2 hours as the heaviest of the precip was overhead. And there was still 10-11” snow after. 

the morning of nemo the euro showed the 2" liquid line well into nj

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air. 

Except you CAN'T have snow without cold air.  Oxymoron? Contradiction?  Would rather have cold and take my chances that the timing is right?

[Roger Smith]

People were shorter in 1888, perhaps it wasn't under-measured. 

[Dark Star]

56 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’d take March 1888 over that in a heartbeat. Hands down the greatest blizzard in our region in the last 200 years. Based on what I have read the snow in the park was way under measured. It was likely our largest total of all time using modern measuring. The pics of tunnels cut through drifts in Brooklyn are on a level we have never seen. Hurricane force gusts and 30”+ totals. 

I was too young to remember, I guess...

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

i read through that the other night actually, you posted it in the enso thread or sne, cant remember. although i couldnt understand half of it due to my lack of knowledge it was a great read

Any specific questions, let me know.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Listen, I am about as negative as they come, but this place is really ridiculous now. This weekend will TORCH, but month to date, I am 1.7 degrees above normal in my area. Again you can all talk about the city etc, but New England and north NY has not been as bad as you all make it sound. And the anomaly over the Hudson Bay is quite warm, but if you notice that is largely over the water itself thanks to the summer. Decembers, once again, are RARELY snowy in these part until the last week. It can snow in an above normal temperature pattern and it does. It has also been snowing mood snow all day here with a light accumulation. Next week looks average for the time of year before another warmup on the weekend. 

Yup, you would think it's been tropical from the talk. It's been an average December up here in MHV. Yesterday's high was 37 with snow showers. Last night went down to 22 and today's high was 35. After a mild weekend most of next week will be close to 40 for daytime highs. Not planting any palm trees here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I have to comment because you are posting lies. 

No one has said that the weeklies looked good before the 20th. They still look really good around the holidays and beyond .

Mid December has looked like ass for awhile now.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I guess from my perspective a negative would be a winter like last year where you couldn't even really ski on decent man made snow. It was slush. To some 60+ in December is a positive, but to most on these boards they are a negative. I'll roll with whatever I have to roll with and jut get outside. I enjoy being outside unless is it pouring down rain and 40 with gusty winds... I guess kind of like the forecast for Sunday night

It was rough-my boys' school did a ski club last year-first time ever-4 weeks at Powder Ridge in CT which was terrible (it's not that far north)  They still enjoyed it but the place was maybe 1/3 open-I was a chaperone one week it was literally like slush and mud even in the evening...

[psv88]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I don’t understand why the terms like positive and negative keep getting thrown around when discussing weather model output and patterns that are outside our control to influence. 

Agreed.