December 2023

[MJO812]

Still looking good

[EastonSN+]

Good to see the wave strengthen a little in 7 and 8.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s generally not a good sign for a cold pattern when all of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, arctic sea ice is low and snowcover on our side of the hemisphere looks like this:
 

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Gorgeous sunrise this morning

Sure was-red sky here but no storm with this one.  

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Thanks for this.

Is this typical for el ninos? I always thought El ninos have blocking and a POS PNA, however the POS EPO usually keeps the PV on the other side. Always feel like when snow a lot in El ninos the temps are always marginal compensated by good storm tracks and rapid intensification leading to dynamic cooling.

[EastonSN+]

How often do we see prolonged periods of the PV over our area?

I think it happened in 76/77, 93/94 and 13/14 (every 15 to 20 years)?

 

[wdrag]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Sure was-red sky here but no storm with this one.  

You should get a period of light snow or flurries midday.

Interesting that one major channel in NYC had no mention of snow this morning in their forecast for today, the others did. Interesting if they have another model that dries it all out? HRRR continues to bring it on into NYC as of the 11z cycle. 

[EastonSN+]

I may be mistaken, however to my El nino question above, snow on the ground would lower monthly temp departures even though the air mass is marginal.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

Is this typical for el ninos? I always thought El ninos have blocking and a POS PNA, however the POS EPO usually keeps the PV on the other side. Always feel like when snow a lot in El ninos the temps are always marginal compensated by good storm tracks and rapid intensification leading to dynamic cooling.

I think the much faster northern branch than usual for an El Niño with the more Niña-like MJO phases keeps eroding the PNA ridge from the west. So we get a very mild Pacific flow and more of a neutral PNA. Every time the PNA tries to amplify, the ridge gets pushed into our region. Parts of the PAC NW have had their wettest start to December on record. Most of the other wet starts were La Niña years. So a continuation of the very hostile PAC Jet which has defined recent years. 
 

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Really ugly look for us

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Not to digress, where did you find this one? Its beautiful

I created it with a prompt (18th century harbor scene following a snowstorm) using the DaVinci AI.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You should get a period of light snow or flurries midday.

Interesting that one major channel in NYC had no mention of snow this morning in their forecast for today, the others did. Interesting if they have another model that dries it all out? HRRR continues to bring it on into NYC as of the 11z cycle. 

I would be surprised if we don't see some snow flurries in the City. A somewhat heavier snow shower is possible, though most of those will probably occur outside of the City.

[the_other_guy]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Come on, we are not going for a +5 month here. Even you don’t believe that.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Come on, we are not going for a +5 month here. Even you don’t believe that.

Probably +2 to maybe +3  Typical of most months around here.  Nov was a colder outlier

[jm1220]

GFS has 60+ mph gusts overnight Sun into Mon with the cold front east of the city. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, jm1220 said:

GFS has 60+ mph gusts overnight Sun into Mon with the cold front east of the city. 

Going to be a mess if that verifies.    Other models are somewhat weaker though...

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Come on, we are not going for a +5 month here. Even you don’t believe that.

It's possible

[snowman19]

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.
 

 

Red flags all over the place for late month. If anyone believes that we are going into an arctic cold pattern by then with a look like that they are going to be in for a real huge surprise

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Come on, we are not going for a +5 month here. Even you don’t believe that.

+2.5 to +5.0 is certainly is in range for stations in our area when you keep seeing these big ridges progressing east in the very fast Pacific flow. Obviously, the later portion of the month will determine whether it’s just closer to +2.5 or some of our warmest sites get closer to +5.0. That’s why I put out a range. Very hard to predict the exact number so early in the month but a forecast range is certainly possible. NYC is sitting at +3.8 and ISP +4.9 with 50s to near 60° expected by this weekend.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Those maps are garbage . This is the high resolution map of the eps.

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Really ugly look for us

Nothing is looking ugly for us moving forward.  Stop being a troll. 

Check out the Mid Atlantic Subforum . They are talking about the upcoming pattern near the holidays.  

I think I'm going to take a break from this subforum because alot of misinformation.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's possible

Where ?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Where ?

Ewr will be +5 by mid month with mostly above after that

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is looking ugly for us moving forward.  Stop being a troll. 

Check out the Mid Atlantic Subforum . They are talking about the upcoming pattern near the holidays.  

I think I'm going to take a break from this subforum because alot of misinformation.

see you for the 12z runs...

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Those maps are garbage . This is the high resolution map of the eps.

 

Going to need to get Canada cooled off-that's alot of PAC air that's flooded Canada.    The area in the east is colder but I'm not sure that's cold enough to snow given mid Dec averages?

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Those maps are garbage . This is the high resolution map of the eps.

 

First of all, the maps are not garbage. But the scales are different. One uses C and the other F. Plus wxbell uses 1° increments and TT has .0.5. 
 

[Allsnow]

First flurries of the season here currently 

 

32 

 

Looks the Philly area is in for a nice surprise this morning 

[ForestHillWx]

With all the talk of the coming warmth, I have 30 degrees with legit light snow at present.

Roofs and roads are dusted; all the little kids were excited as could be at pre-k drop off. 

Seasons in seasons type stuff…

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Those maps are garbage . This is the high resolution map of the eps.

 

The 5-10 or 6-10 day period could see cool readings. Tropical Tidbits is still using the old 1981-2020 base period, which understates the cold and overstates the warmth relative to the warmer 1991-2020 baseline that is now in use.

The warmth rebounds for a time (check out days 10-15). It's not extreme warmth, but readings wind up in the middle and perhaps upper 40s (45 is the end value for Central Park) by the end of the 0z EPS run in the NYC area. The latest CFSv2 weeklies keep the warm anomalies going through the end of the month. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a pattern evolution. If past years are representative, the change to a more favorable pattern might take somewhat longer than currently modeled. It seems that the weekly guidance has two big issues beyond two weeks: either a bias for continuity that frequently runs through weeks 5-6 or, when it breaks from continuity, the rushing of pattern changes. I still think January and February will offer opportunities for cold and snow. The last week of December could see cold start to return, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it takes until the first week in January.

There has been notable warming of the stratosphere, focused on 5 mb to 10 mb. However, there's still no forecast for the kind of wind reversal that defines major warming events through 10 days (ECMWF ensemble mean). For now, the stratospheric vortex still looks to remain weak through the foreseeable future, which should afford higher blocking possibilities. There is a risk that once the stratosphere cools, especially if there is no zonal wind reversal, that could allow the stratospheric polar vortex to strengthen. There's no guidance showing such an outcome, but it has happened in some past winters. Such a development would cause problems for January and perhaps beyond. I'm articulating this risk, but I don't think it is the most likely outcome right now.

Finally,there has been some chatter about extreme cold (e.g., single-digit-type cold for NYC) to end December/start January. I'm very skeptical of such calls. Numerous El Niño winters, even snowy ones, have not seen single-digit or colder peak cold in NYC.

[Brian5671]

We did have a big cold outbreak in 15-16-I think NYC got close to zero in the Feb outbreak?