December 2023

[ebwx]

Flurries from around 2:30-2:45 walking down 5th next to central park

 

[MJO812]

Wow

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 

With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 

And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 

Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 

Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

There’s nothing to get upset about with regards to weather.

 

If you’re lucky you’re here for 80 years. You’re a blip, so am I. if it’s cold, wear a jacket, if it’s warm, wear shorts.

Humanity is not willing to make the drastic changes that will be necessary to stop carbon dioxide. So they will adapt to a new warmer world.

 

 

 

 

[North and West]

There’s nothing to get upset about with regards to weather.
 
If you’re lucky you’re here for 80 years. You’re a blip, so am I. if it’s cold, wear a jacket, if it’s warm, wear shorts.
Humanity is not willing to make the drastic changes that will be necessary to stop carbon dioxide. So they will adapt to a new warmer world.
 
 
 
 

I really do think we’re going to find a way to make carbon capture economically sound and efficient by 2050.


.

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea years ago there was. I was certain he had won it lol

I thought he did too one year but Kevin beat him for Weenie of the Decade.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

There’s nothing to get upset about with regards to weather.

 

If you’re lucky you’re here for 80 years. You’re a blip, so am I. if it’s cold, wear a jacket, if it’s warm, wear shorts.

Humanity is not willing to make the drastic changes that will be necessary to stop carbon dioxide. So they will adapt to a new warmer world.

 

 

 

 

This X 100.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

Unfortunately, this:

Not this:

Nevertheless, it should be a wild event. 1"-2" of rain will be likely (likely washing away my idea that 2023 would fall just short of 55" annual precipitation in NYC), with 40 mph+ gusts, coastal flooding and beach erosion. The temperature could spike to 60° or above. Tree damage is possible and some power lines could be brought down.

Note: All images were AI-generated.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, this:

Not this:

Nevertheless, it should be a wild event. 1"-2" of rain will be likely (likely washing away my idea that 2023 would fall just short of 55" annual precipitation in NYC), with 40 mph+ gusts, coastal flooding and beach erosion. The temperature could spike to 60° or above. Tree damage is possible and some power lines could be brought down.

Note: All images were AI-generated.

 

 

I hope this happens during the day, its terrifying hearing the wind through the trees when trying to sleep lol.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope this happens during the day, its terrifying hearing the wind through the trees when trying to sleep lol.

At this time, the worst of the storm appears likely to occur during the night. However, there could still be some changes in the timing.

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not sure why you you’re not grasping what I’m saying. Pre 1980s there was significantly more sea ice in the fall then there is now. As the summer melt out now exposes more area to solar insulation. Thus warmer fall/early winter temps in the Arctic our obvious cold air source. The Arctic Ocean still freezes over each winter though, and the darkness allows to cold to reload later in the winter. Thus exposing us to better source airmass’s later in the winter. 

Yes you are correct, a frozen arctic would make things colder.  My bad, I thought you had some inside information that the ice caps would be returning to more normal coverage.

[wdrag]

12 hours ago, wdrag said:

Am not starting a wind damage thread yet...but EPS ensemble max wind gust mean is increasing. Here is the 00z/6 version for later Sunday-Monday morning. GEFS less.  Click for clarity. 

!2z version of this 00z/6 post is about identical.  Watching the trend overnight, ditto Canadian and GFS for a possible threat start tomorrow..mainly wind damage but rainfall looks 3+ for a small portion of our area if deepening occurs with stationary frontal position for 6 hours late Sunday.  Still lack of consensus, especially Canadian. 

[snowman19]

It’s generally not a good sign for a cold pattern when all of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, arctic sea ice is low and snowcover on our side of the hemisphere looks like this:
 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s generally not a good sign for a cold pattern when all of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, arctic sea ice is low and snowcover on our side of the hemisphere looks like this:
 

Terrible call on your east based Super Nino.

[North and West]

At this time, the worst of the storm appears likely to occur during the night. However, there could still be some changes in the timing.

What’s the timing? If, say, someone is flying into Newark on Saturday evening, that would be ok?


.

[North and West]

Unfortunately, this:

Not this:

Nevertheless, it should be a wild event. 1"-2" of rain will be likely (likely washing away my idea that 2023 would fall just short of 55" annual precipitation in NYC), with 40 mph+ gusts, coastal flooding and beach erosion. The temperature could spike to 60° or above. Tree damage is possible and some power lines could be brought down.
Note: All images were AI-generated.
 
 

Those paintings are frighteningly good.


.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At this time, the worst of the storm appears likely to occur during the night. However, there could still be some changes in the timing.

Truth be told, I cannot sleep when it's windy/stormy at night ever since a tree fell on my house during one of the March 2018 snowstorms.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

What’s the timing? If, say, someone is flying into Newark on Saturday evening, that would be ok?


.

The worst of the winds will probably be after 9-10 pm.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Truth be told, I cannot sleep when it's windy/stormy at night ever since a tree fell on my house during one of the March 2018 snowstorms.

I can understand. It’s a terrible experience that one often does not forget.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Those paintings are frighteningly good.


.

That’s an earlier version AI. The images are even better (but not yet comparable to top humans) on the more advanced tools. 

Here’s one from another AI:

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 

With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 

And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 

Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 

Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

Regarding this part:

"There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks."

I look at it this way - In the worst case scenarios, NYC metro's weather in 25-30 years will be similar to what, current northern VA?

If you grew up there in the 80s/90s, you still had some historical and memorable snowstorms and cold.  You wouldn't have thrown in the towel, right?  The snow and storms wouldn't come quite as often as here - maybe - since there are so many other factors as we know -  but they'd still happen.

Same situation here.  It's not like we live in the Arctic, and I think the 2001-2019 set our expectations way higher than they should be.  If temperatures continue to rise like they have been, regarding historic snows, it's like our odds of winning $500 on a lottery ticket dropped from 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,500.  At the coast at least, it's always been a longshot, with enough other factors at play that the total amount of winters we're around and able to appreciate it are barely sufficient for a good sample size. 

 

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Regarding this part:

"There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks."

I look at it this way - In the worst case scenarios, NYC metro's weather in 25-30 years will be similar to what, current northern VA?

If you grew up there in the 80s/90s, you still had some historical and memorable snowstorms and cold.  You wouldn't have thrown in the towel, right?  The snow and storms wouldn't come quite as often as here - maybe - since there are so many other factors as we know -  but they'd still happen.

Same situation here.  It's not like we live in the Arctic, and I think the 2001-2019 set our expectations way higher than they should be.  If temperatures continue to rise like they have been, regarding historic snows, it's like our odds of winning $500 on a lottery ticket dropped from 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,500.  At the coast at least, it's always been a longshot, with enough other factors at play that the total amount of winters we're around and able to appreciate it are barely sufficient for a good sample size. 

 

Within 25-30 years we’ll likely have multiple deadly heat waves where NYC gets over 105 degrees in the summer over multiple days, maybe even each summer. We’ve lucked out over the last few summers where the worst of the summer heat has been SW of us. That won’t last forever. TX and FL had their record or near record hottest summer this year. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow should be another cool, but not very cold, day. Some snow flurries and snow showers are again possible.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday with a very mild weekend following. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday. Strong southeasterly winds could impact the region as the strengthening storm passes to the north and west of the region. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely.

Overall, the first 10 days of December remain on track to finish with a solidly warmer than normal anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around November 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -2.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.427 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.551 (RMM). The December 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.323 (RMM).

 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Within 25-30 years we’ll likely have multiple deadly heat waves where NYC gets over 105 degrees in the summer over multiple days, maybe even each summer. We’ve lucked out over the last few summers where the worst of the summer heat has been SW of us. That won’t last forever. TX and FL had their record or near record hottest summer this year. 

Phoenix had both its hottest summer and hottest fall. Phoenix added a record high today to its collection of record highs this year. Miami is all but certain to record its warmest year on record. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 will all rank among its 10 warmest years on record. Miami's full-year records go back to 1896.

[MJO812]

Flurries here

[North and West]

That’s an earlier version AI. The images are even better (but not yet comparable to top humans) on the more advanced tools. 
Here’s one from another AI:

That’s nice. Almost like I would want it in my house, but then also knowing a robot made it.




.

[North and West]

Phoenix had both its hottest summer and hottest fall. Phoenix added a record high today to its collection of record highs this year. Miami is all but certain to record its warmest year on record. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 will all rank among its 10 warmest years on record. Miami's full-year records go back to 1896.

.

[wdrag]

Am not starting a 55-65 MPH wind threat thread for Sunday night yet... not a lock despite GFS amping up a bit on 06z/7 cycle..the EPS is down a little bit from yesterday and the Canadian is routine.  I don't want to post a thread for only eastern LI verification where I'm pretty sure we'll see a 1-4 hour period of these 55-65 MPH gusts. SVR threat still lingers coastal NJ-LI. Would rather have a good look at this around 730PM tonight inclusive of ensembles etc.  Have a day including forenoon-midday flurries with measurable just west of NYC though roads just wet where a little measurable. 

[TJW014]

Gorgeous sunrise this morning

[the_other_guy]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s an earlier version AI. The images are even better (but not yet comparable to top humans) on the more advanced tools. 

Here’s one from another AI:

Not to digress, where did you find this one? Its beautiful

[the_other_guy]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Within 25-30 years we’ll likely have multiple deadly heat waves where NYC gets over 105 degrees in the summer over multiple days, maybe even each summer. We’ve lucked out over the last few summers where the worst of the summer heat has been SW of us. That won’t last forever. TX and FL had their record or near record hottest summer this year. 

No we wont. Stop the dramatic stuff. It serves none of us well.

1. we cant get over 100 anymore because the air is so damn saturated.

2. our summer climate is now very much like Florida minus the intensity of the sun. 

You will run your AC from May to Oct and tell everyone you know that its great “because everything is air conditioned” just like my Floridian relatives have said for 30 years. 

We will adapt and for the most part be fine

 

29F this morning…