December 2023

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are late to the game. They have been widely scattered around the Long Island South Shore for a decade now. But only the ones that are cold hardy. Numerous December days in the 50s to near 60 with a sprinkling of near average days in between  is a big help to people with reduced heating bill costs. A NYC December average In the low 40s is the same as the November average in the late 1800s. Our new January average in the low 30s is the same as the December average temperature in the late 1800s. So December has become more of a fall month than a winter one as it now takes winter later to get going. I think we got spoiled with all those cold and snowy Decembers from 2000 to 2010. 

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away. 

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's more that I had a blanket thought that most El ninos are snowy here. Just like some la ninas are favorable, some El ninos are not. 

CPC did/does some work on ENSO and snowfall.  The problem is the composites haven't updated since 2010, so it's a bit outdated.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away. 

Windmill palms native to the Himalayas are the only true palms that can handle our winters. Hardy down to around 0. So back in the 80s they weren’t yet viable. If we get to the point that our lowest possible winter temps are like 20, then allot more options will be available. So sometime late this century NYC will really become a palm city. You see allot of palms in coastal SE England where that’s always been the case. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away. 

My neighbors back on the South Shore would wrap their windmill palms and they would survive the winters. Probably made more effective by not having any cold winters since 14-15. I like the look of the newer Crepe Myrtles more. They match the look of our natural tree varieties better in my opinion than palms. The palms on the GSB in the winter in Lindenhurst when the bay freezes look out of place to me. But I can see how people like them the rest of the year with the party atmosphere down there.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pop’s in Island Park (closed now) had all the summer palm trees sit out in the winter and die. To me such a ridiculous waste. At least Malibu in Lido Beach puts them away. 

Places here leave them out as well and they are all dead now-they treat them as annuals I guess

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Blue Dream said:

why does snowman19 weenie everything you say?  Asking for a friend

Good late morning Blue Dream. Anthony and S19 present an interesting cold season dynamic. There would probably be less weenies if the responses were not post limited. I believe Anthony considers the source and probably doesn’t feel insulted by S19’s emoji comment. Stay well and my best to your friend. As always …..

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You are late to the game. They have been widely scattered around the Long Island South Shore for a decade now. But only the ones that are cold hardy. Numerous December days in the 50s to near 60 with a sprinkling of near average days in between  is a big help to people with reduced heating bill costs. A NYC December average In the low 40s is the same as the November average in the late 1800s. Our new January average in the low 30s is the same as the December average temperature in the late 1800s. So December has become more of a fall month than a winter one as it now takes winter later to get going. I think we got spoiled with all those cold and snowy Decembers from 2000 to 2010. 

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 

With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 

And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 

Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 

Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

[cardinalland]

i just saw like 6 snowflakes guys

[binbisso]

I wonder if we can sneak and event here in the 8 to 12 day period. There's a big PNA spike on the GE FS And the pretty significant change from the ensemble from several days prior.

New run

 

Old run

 

[binbisso]

850's

[BoulderWX]

Looking quiet for most of the area from a snow perspective through end of month. Hopefully a few storms in the JFM period but hopes not particularly high. 

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My neighbors back on the South Shore would wrap their windmill palms and they would survive the winters. Probably made more effective by not having any cold winters since 14-15. I like the look of the newer Crepe Myrtles more. They match the look of our natural tree varieties better in my opinion than palms. The palms on the GSB in the winter in Lindenhurst when the bay freezes look out of place to me. But I can see how people like them the rest of the year with the party atmosphere down there.

Yeah I’ve been seeing a lot of Crape Myrtle popping up around my area in Somerset County, NJ.

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I wonder if we can sneak and event here in the 8 to 12 day period. There's a big PNA spike on the GE FS And the pretty significant change from the ensemble from several days prior.

New run

 

Old run

 

Move that ridge a little to the left and we are good. +PNA always trumps a neg NAO and a deep RNA (see last 2 Decembers).

Good progress.

[Eduardo]

34 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I wonder if we can sneak and event here in the 8 to 12 day period. There's a big PNA spike on the GE FS And the pretty significant change from the ensemble from several days prior.

New run

 

Old run

 

Good post!  Would love to luck our way into something.  Worth keeping an eye on.

[NorthShoreWx]

On 12/2/2023 at 10:21 PM, jm1220 said:

Hopefully this winter there will be numerous spot on the money measurements from Smithtown and plenty of snow hikes. Need to preserve our >35” average since the late 1990s. 

Snow / graupel in Smithtown.

[Cfa]

Graupel in Hauppauge. Caught me off guard.

[psv88]

Some flakes in Melville

[wishcast_hater]

Taconic North - Putnam Dutchess Borderline. Came down heavy and temp dropped from 36 to 32 then back up to 36 after I passed this.


.

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it’s a feedback do to lack of sea ice. Once the Arctic freezes back over, cold air is able to build. I think it’s at least part of why we have been seeing winters become increasingly backloaded. 

I'm confused.  Is the Arctic supposed to re-freeze anytime soon?  Did I miss something?  I hope to see it.

[jm1220]

Brief snow shower here in Melville. 

[NittanyWx]

Thinking is for a transient few cooler days around mid month sandwiched around warmer ones.  I still don't see permanent blowtorch, though I do think the post cool period could produce several much above normal days.

 

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Looking quiet for most of the area from a snow perspective through end of month. Hopefully a few storms in the JFM period but hopes not particularly high. 

Snowing here right now. 

[STORMANLI]

Snow Shower

[Rjay]

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I hope you have your affairs in order.  

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, Blue Dream said:

why does snowman19 weenie everything you say?  Asking for a friend

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

[steve392]

Had snow showers in Bergen County earlier.  Blue skies finally gave way to clouds. 

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

I mean, at least he’s out front about it.  Place wouldn’t be as fun without him TBH.

[lee59]

40 degrees and flurries here.

[Brian5671]

I've seen more snowflakes this month and last month than all of January of last winter