December 2023

[brooklynwx99]

it is Nov 26th and already unbearable. hate to see it

literally nothing has changed. I posted about the 5th and onward, and the pattern still becomes favorable after the 5th. what is the argument here for a "pushback" or "wasted blocking?" models have been incredibly consistent

[WestBabylonWeather]

We have had years of warm Decembers that lacked snow. The streak has to break at some point I would think.


.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, Allsnow said:

In the 11-15 day range. How many times have we been through this? 

Yeah, we need these day 11-15 favorable Pacific forecast patterns to still be there once we are in the more reliable day 6-10 forecast period. We can remember how the day 11-15 EPS had a favorable Pacific pattern to start December. Now the new day 6-10 is milder than the old day 11-15 since a trough is forecast to dig into the West. 

New run for December 1st 

 

Old run for December 1st

 

[Allsnow]

@bluewave you’re absolutely slaying this forum currently. I see you got everyone bothered because you are providing evidence of another mild/snowless winter in the enso thread 

I do agree, hopefully we catch a rouge event in February 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave you’re absolutely slaying this forum currently. I see you got everyone bothered because you are providing evidence of another mild/snowless winter in the enso thread 

I do agree, hopefully we catch a rouge event in February 

People don't want to hear the truth. Raindancewx has been on a roll too, and if it helps, he's much more optimistic this year than last for us. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People don't want to hear the truth. Raindancewx has been on a roll too, and if it helps, he's much more optimistic this year than last for us. 

Last year we got nothing so it can’t be worst 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, they're both doing well with their analysis. Bluewave's showing of how we have followed similar progressions as the last few year's makes me think this Feb won't be a huge +PNA-Nino like everyone thinks (Hopefully we have -NAO). 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, they're both doing well with their analysis. Bluewave's showing of how we have followed similar progressions as the last few year's makes me think this Feb won't be a huge +PNA-Nino like everyone thinks (Hopefully we have -NAO). 

why are we comparing this year to the last few years when we have a strong Nino? the last few years we have had a La Nina

this is what baffles me. we have completely different tropical forcing in play. why are we using the same reasoning as we did for the last several years? it's just glorified persistence forecasting, which ends up wrong at some point

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it is Nov 26th and already unbearable. hate to see it

literally nothing has changed. I posted about the 5th and onward, and the pattern still becomes favorable after the 5th. what is the argument here for a "pushback" or "wasted blocking?" models have been incredibly consistent

First half of Decemver was always supposed to be mild. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

why are we comparing this year to the last few years when we have a strong Nino? the last few years we have had a La Nina

this is what baffles me. we have completely different tropical forcing in play. why are we using the same reasoning as we did for the last several years? it's just glorified persistence forecasting, which ends up wrong at some point

There are many factors at play, ENSO is one of them. So far in this El Nino event, we have seen a N. Pacific trough more often, but it's still correlating on the level of like a Weak El Nino. Usually Dec and Jan is where that correlation picks up, but we'll see.. I know '97 and '82 had massive N. Pacific low's right now. 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, they're both doing well with their analysis. Bluewave's showing of how we have followed similar progressions as the last few year's makes me think this Feb won't be a huge +PNA-Nino like everyone thinks (Hopefully we have -NAO). 

The reason the ensembles corrected to a West Coast trough is due to the MJO going into phases 3 and 4, not as a result of a static background state Imo.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason the ensembles corrected to a West Coast trough is due to the MJO going into phases 3 and 4, not as a result of a static background state Imo.

Mjo going briefly in the warm phases. 

[donsutherland1]

December 2023 appears poised to move into little charted, if not uncharted territory for an El Niño event with a Region 3.4 anomaly of +1° or above and a negative PDO. None of the three cases since 1950 featured a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The possibility of such an outcome exists this time around, possibly due to ongoing marine heatwaves that have distorted the effects of the ongoing El Niño to date. With the AAM forecast to go positive during the first week of December, there is also the risk of the development of a more typical El Niño hemispheric pattern. During that time, the MJO could approach or reach the warmer Maritime Continent phases.

Some lessons from the past might be applicable, especially when one considers the periods of blocking that occurred during those past three cases (December 15-18, 1972 and December 1-6, 1991):

1. Cold could be nearby or present when Atlantic blocking is ongoing. As the climate has warmed since these cases, especially 1972, areas of cold could be less expansive and less impressive than they were during the December 1972 and December 1991 blocking episodes. Overall, December 2023 could be colder relative to normal than the 1972, 1991, and 1994 cases, but not necessarily colder than normal, as blocking should be present for a longer period of time than during those cases.

2. Monthly snowfall will likely be linked to the presence of the blocking. All of December 1991's 0.7" snowfall in New York City occurred when the AO and NAO were negative. Total snowfall for December 1972 and 1994 came to a trace.

Given historic experience with the three El Niño cases above, keeping in mind the tiny sample size, there remains at least some risk that the blocking forecast for early December could break down for the second half of the month.

[MJO812]

Allsnow loves those weenie emojis. 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason the ensembles corrected to a West Coast trough is due to the MJO going into phases 3 and 4, not as a result of a static background state Imo.

The static background state is the expanding record WPAC warm pool leading to stronger and more frequent MJO 4-6 phases and multiyear La Ninas. This can even occur during super El Niños like in December 2015. And we saw how this background state prevented the 18-19 El Niño from coupling.
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

• Bin Wang, 
• Weiyi Sun, 
• Chunhan Jin, 
• Xiao Luo, 
• Young-Min Yang, 
• Tim Li, 
• Baoqiang Xiang, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Mark A. Cane, 
• Feifei Jin, 
• Fei Liu & 
• Jian Liu 

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 1075–1081 (2023)Cite this article

• 8180 Accesses

• 188 Altmetric

• Metrics details

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

Abstract

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

[donsutherland1]

"Hot" off the CPC press:

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The static background state is the expanding record WPAC warm pool leading to stronger and more frequent MJO 4-6 phases and multiyear La Ninas. This can even occur during super El Niños like in December 2015. And we saw how this background state prevented the 18-19 El Niño from coupling.
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

• Bin Wang, 
• Weiyi Sun, 
• Chunhan Jin, 
• Xiao Luo, 
• Young-Min Yang, 
• Tim Li, 
• Baoqiang Xiang, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Mark A. Cane, 
• Feifei Jin, 
• Fei Liu & 
• Jian Liu 

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 1075–1081 (2023)Cite this article

• 8180 Accesses

• 188 Altmetric

• Metrics details

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

Abstract

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

Yup. 2019 we ended up with a La Niña February even with a favorable mjo. We got most of our snow in March that season 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

"Hot" off the CPC press:

@MJO812 patience we have blocking 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@MJO812 patience we have blocking 

Blocking will eventually develop.  Every guidance develops a block. We just need the Pacific to cooperate .

Many meteorologists who have been on the warm train for December have changed their tune.

But keep calling me out like I'm the only one saying that.

 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

"Hot" off the CPC press:

Mjo in the warm phases. The faster we get out the better.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blocking will eventually develop.  Every guidance develops a block. We just need the Pacific to cooperate .

Many meteorologists who have been on the warm train for December have changed their tune.

But keep calling me out like I'm the only one saying that.

 

It’s developing. We’ll need it to be sustained. If the Pacific can then improve, we should be in business for potential wintry outcomes. That’s still beyond the skillful range of the guidance. Hopefully, things will evolve to allow us to break the ongoing snow drought.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The static background state is the expanding record WPAC warm pool leading to stronger and more frequent MJO 4-6 phases and multiyear La Ninas. This can even occur during super El Niños like in December 2015. And we saw how this background state prevented the 18-19 El Niño from coupling.
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

• Bin Wang, 
• Weiyi Sun, 
• Chunhan Jin, 
• Xiao Luo, 
• Young-Min Yang, 
• Tim Li, 
• Baoqiang Xiang, 
• Michael J. McPhaden, 
• Mark A. Cane, 
• Feifei Jin, 
• Fei Liu & 
• Jian Liu 

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 1075–1081 (2023)Cite this article

• 8180 Accesses

• 188 Altmetric

• Metrics details

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

Abstract

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

It's all those Nukes NK fired into that Area 

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blocking will eventually develop.  Every guidance develops a block. We just need the Pacific to cooperate .

Many meteorologists who have been on the warm train for December have changed their tune.

But keep calling me out like I'm the only one saying that.

 

Blocking only matters if we have arctic air to trap right now it’s pac polar which won’t cut it in December 

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2023 appears poised to move into little charted, if not uncharted territory for an El Niño event with a Region 3.4 anomaly of +1° or above and a negative PDO. None of the three cases since 1950 featured a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The possibility of such an outcome exists this time around, possibly due to ongoing marine heatwaves that have distorted the effects of the ongoing El Niño to date. With the AAM forecast to go positive during the first week of December, there is also the risk of the development of a more typical El Niño hemispheric pattern. During that time, the MJO could approach or reach the warmer Maritime Continent phases.

Some lessons from the past might be applicable, especially when one considers the periods of blocking that occurred during those past three cases (December 15-18, 1972 and December 1-6, 1991):

1. Cold could be nearby or present when Atlantic blocking is ongoing. As the climate has warmed since these cases, especially 1972, areas of cold could be less expansive and less impressive than they were during the December 1972 and December 1991 blocking episodes. Overall, December 2023 could be colder relative to normal than the 1972, 1991, and 1994 cases, but not necessarily colder than normal, as blocking should be present for a longer period of time than during those cases.

2. Monthly snowfall will likely be linked to the presence of the blocking. All of December 1991's 0.7" snowfall in New York City occurred when the AO and NAO were negative. Total snowfall for December 1972 and 1994 came to a trace.

Given historic experience with the three El Niño cases above, keeping in mind the tiny sample size, there remains at least some risk that the blocking forecast for early December could break down for the second half of the month.

The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts. 

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts. 

Normally I love Don’s posts, but I’m not sold on 1991 as a top analog. 1972, sure. But in 1991 there was no blocking wall to wall (except for a few days), and it looks like we’ll get plenty of blocking this winter. 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

The worst of the worst Nino Analogues , lol. The 82-83, 97-98 and even '15-16 were all better in much of the Central/ Southern Apps and MA Snowfall wise. May be different in your area . Man, if this one follows those, talk about a depressing one for Winter weather enthusiasts. 

Those weren’t great winters up here. Parts of the South from Georgia into the Carolinas had a historic snowstorm during February 1973.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Normally I love Don’s posts, but I’m not sold on 1991 as a top analog. 1972, sure. But in 1991 there was no blocking wall to wall (except for a few days), and it looks like we’ll get plenty of blocking this winter. 

It’s not an analog but an illustration of how few winters there have been with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of 1C or above and a negative PDO. This December could be unique as there should be more blocking than during any of those three cases.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those weren’t great winters up here. Parts of the South from Georgia into the Carolinas had a historic snowstorm during February 1973.

Yeah, that one clocked that area with up to two feet in South Carolina ! 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Blocking will eventually develop.  Every guidance develops a block. We just need the Pacific to cooperate .

Many meteorologists who have been on the warm train for December have changed their tune.

But keep calling me out like I'm the only one saying that.

 

The blocking is developing but it’s favoring Europe. When we see the polar vortex shift over to Europe, it takes a lot of patience to see improvement here. Notice how there is no real cold air anywhere in North America as we head into December. 

 

 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blocking is developing but it’s favoring Europe. When we see the polar vortex shift over to Europe, it takes a lot of patience to see improvement here. Notice how there is no real cold air anywhere in North America as we head into December. 

 

 

No cold at all on our side of the globe on the entire eps run last night. The pac improvements around mid month are very brief as we go back to the same -pna look…