kat5hurricane Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: ‘93 was great; ‘96 was the one for me though. I vividly remember Al Roker bumping projected totals each update, all the while my dad saying “don’t worry you’ll have school”. 2 days later he came home driving in a front end loader to clear the end of our dead end street as we were plowed in. I don’t think we had school for 2.5 days. Yeah, '96 was projected to hammer the mid Atlantic and spare us the worst then the night before totals got bumped up higher and higher. Sort of like Boxing Day but more expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 We track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We track Warm on this run but the gfs keeps showing a split flow . Nice adjustments on the models to colder weather ahead. Mjo doesn't lie 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Warm on this run but the gfs keeps showing a split flow . Nice adjustments on the models to colder weather ahead. Mjo doesn't lie obv its too far deep for me to take seriously, but its been nice seeing the models trend colder over the past 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible. I received 10” from that storm in western Suffolk County. After a period of heavy snow the storm transitioned to a period of a very nasty wind blown heavy sleet and freezing rain. You had to be in eastern PA in order to get into the heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 4 hours ago, MANDA said: I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though. That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland. Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze. A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley. Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area. Winds on LI gusted to 60-70 mph for much of the day as that storm passed by well to our west. It was an amazing wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I received 10” from that storm in western Suffolk County. After a period of heavy snow the storm transitioned to a period of a very nasty wind blown heavy sleet and freezing rain. You had to be in eastern PA in order to get into the heavy snows. Yeah, what was left of the snowpack in the Long Beach West End turned into icebergs like in this video from the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in Mass when the storm surge came in. They froze into concrete blocks with the flash freeze the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 obv its too far deep for me to take seriously, but its been nice seeing the models trend colder over the past 24hrs 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We track More rain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 52 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More rain Maybe But the pattern looks to get colder. Good sign. No torch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Tomorrow through Thursday should be cool, but not very cold, days. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday with a very mild weekend following. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday. Strong southeasterly winds could impact the region as the strengthening storm passes to the north and west of the region. Overall, the first 10 days of December remain on track to finish with a solidly warmer than normal anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around November 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen somewhat further this month. The SOI was -6.85 on December 4. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.817 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On December 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.409 (RMM). The December 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.402 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: This storm HUGGED the coast with a worse air mass than 93 and still hammered. That was a real dud here in CNJ....5 inches of sleet. And totally predictable, Mitch Volk was on here the night before saying that it was unlikely NYC and surroundings would see much snow. Based on March storms struggling to get over 10 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 4 hours ago, guinness77 said: I know it’s still 5 or so days away but Sunday night/Monday early morning looks like it could get nasty, especially the further east you go. I was just out at sea today and the captain was telling people to come out this week because Sunday was gonna be a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: SE winds tend to do more damage since prevailing winds are out of the west-so trees tend to bend that way. On the plus side-all the leaves are off so that will help limit downed limbs We used to joke about that out on the deck....come on out with us in the afternoon and we'll show you a prevailing wind... a SE that will kick your ass...seen it break the windows on a 65 foot head boat. Water pouring through the cabin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 5 hours ago, uofmiami said: Winds definitely look like a real threat for coastal areas, if the models maintain the intensity, as we get closer to the event. Plenty of time for it to trend boring but 18z GFS has over 40kt SSE winds overnight Sun into Mon. That's definitely enough to bring some trees down/scattered power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Flurries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Interesting evolution being depicted on the 0z runs for the cold front coming through the northeast late this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Am not starting a wind damage thread yet...but EPS ensemble max wind gust mean is increasing. Here is the 00z/6 version for later Sunday-Monday morning. GEFS less. Click for clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Not impossible, but not probable... NYC CP first 0.1" of the season Thursday morning sometime between 9A-Noon ? Not probable but like the flurries that occurred in NJ overnight, NYC has a pretty good chance of flurries tomorrow morning...but not necessarily measurable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Not impossible, but not probable... NYC CP first 0.1" of the season Thursday morning sometime between 9A-Noon ? Not probable but like the flurries that occurred in NJ overnight, NYC has a pretty good chance of flurries tomorrow morning...but not necessarily measurable. It’s been sitting there as a possibility for several days now. Cold air in place. definitely worth mentioning. 28F this morning. Nice to be back in mid December temperatures 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Maybe But the pattern looks to get colder. Good sign. No torch The models don’t have any real cold. It’s an average of normal days like today and near +10 days in the 50s to perhaps around 60° like we saw last weekend. So when you average out normal and +10 it’s still warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The models don’t have any real cold. It’s an average of normal days like today and near +10 days in the 50s to perhaps around 60° like we saw last weekend. So when you average out normal and +10 it’s still warm. It's not a torch like a few people were predicting . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: It's not a torch like a few people were predicting . What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Latest MJO moving along just fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm. 50s plus 40s is normal at this time of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm. That's the problem with that silly term, it's arbitrary and the goal posts seem to change seasonally for many. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Not a torch but you need real arctic air to get snow in December...normals are still 40+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Snowing here in Patterson as I get ready to take the train down to the city. Nice mood snow. Torch weekend and then back to normal. Next week Thunder Ridge should get many nights of blasting the hill with snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not a torch like a few people were predicting . It was never a torch. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 50s plus We’ll we have been getting those regularly since the start of the month. In the old days, we didn’t regularly get 40°+ Decembers as frequently as we have since 2011. I bolded the 40°+Decembers since 2011. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 11 1994 42.2 0 12 1923 42.0 0 13 2012 41.5 0 14 1996 41.3 0 - 1953 41.3 0 15 1979 41.1 0 16 1956 40.9 0 - 1931 40.9 0 17 1971 40.8 0 18 2014 40.5 0 - 1965 40.5 0 19 1957 40.2 0 20 2018 40.1 0 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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