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December 2023


brooklynwx99
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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

He lives in Maine 

The lives in Massachusetts and he's a great professional so he's not just concerned with his backyard. He encompasses all of New England including SW CT with is a stones throw from central park, so his statements carry heavy weight even for our forum. 

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2 hours ago, North and West said:


I think that AGW does its part in regards from us hitting .285 (above league average) to .255 (league average), while non-AGW stuff is we’ve had some hard hit balls that were just in the wrong spot, and therefore caught.

So, it’s still very possible, even if a little less likely from both warming and bad luck.


.

AGW causes you to roll snake eyes more often but there are still plenty of possibilities for good winters. However the average probability of a rat all else equal definitely is going up. We have numerous factors on a yearly basis that are more impactful than that background signal. 

We were (hopefully still are) in a snowy Northeast period from 2000-2018, and eventually the pendulum will swing away. There’s been record cold in MT/WY/Northern Plains in recent winters so it can definitely still happen. Just remains to be seen if we’re back in a 1980s to mid 1990s lousy stretch. Eventually it’s bound to happen. Anyone knows Central Park long term isn’t getting away with over 30” snow averages and that’s even before AGW impacts. 

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Great post, Don. I wouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of a 2015-esque month, however. Obviously, we are only 3 days into the month, but 2023 is running 0.8F warmer than 2015 in those 3 days. So, we are certainly off to a running start.

image.png.69da884c809693e36dcbc8731cea767c.png

While I wouldn't rule out a 2001-type outcome were the blocking to break down during the 12/18-25 period, I don't see anything that suggests a 2015-type scenario. December 2015 had no freezes (we could see one this week). December 2015 also had 11 days with lows of 50° or above and 11 days with highs of 60° or above at Central Park.

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51 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Having analyzed everything I personally don't see a huge signal for any big storm or cold air outbreak this month. I think attention should be focused on January's potential given current state of the stratosphere. Synoptically, this month holds a mild pattern look.

January has huge potential but don't give up on the outlook towards the holidays . 

Yes I know it's 384 hours on the geps but it has trended colder.

17017116733886569388166935887636_4815093804203.png

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So the MJO going into 8 and 1 later this month doesn't mean anything down here ?

 

It could but who knows this far out....last year it got stuck in 7 or on the doorstep of 8 several times so we'll see.   It'll also depend on the cold air source.   Normals are still in the low 40's for most of December need a good supply of fresh arctic for anything meaningful snow wise....I'm in the Jan/Feb camp myself, Dec is probably rushing it....We wait and watch.   (and weenie)

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

January has huge potential but don't give up on the outlook towards the holidays . 

Yes I know it's 384 hours on the geps but it has trended colder.

17017116733886569388166935887636_4815093804203.png

That would not be a cold look here in NYC. Ridge in the Aleutians with all Cold locked in Ak. The flow on that map is directly from the PAC 

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4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Montreal and eastern Canada were hit pretty hard last night. Is this a good source region or do we prefer Alaska and wester Canada epo/PNA reasons?

I'd prefer Canadian prairies and upper Midwest, personally.    Now thats not to say it CAN'T snow without those areas, but more often than not your source region is north and west and gets modulated and weakened without snowcover.

 

More important to me is a loading pattern that at least brings in some cold into western Canada to tap into.  We're lacking that currently.

 

Models today towards the end are starting to show some signs of that, but that's really step 1 in the process.

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The problem has been very typical for December. Up and down temperatures with more upside than downside and when the storms come, it’s always ridiculously warm due to cutting.

 

if you could get something going on Thursday or Friday of this week, it would make the situation not so bad. That doesn’t seem to happen anymore around here. Certainly not in December.

We have 3 BN days starting tomorrow. Followed by 4 AN days with greater deviation and rain. No way to run a business ahem December

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That would not be a cold look here in NYC. Ridge in the Aleutians with all Cold locked in Ak. The flow on that map is directly from the PAC 

So I guess it will never snow again. and its December 2015 all over again, Can we try for 80 on Christmas? Pacific air..you will never see phase 8 in your lifetime!,.cold dumped into the west  Just trying to be as negative as eveybody else on the forum. How am I doing?..ho ho ho

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2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

So I guess it will never snow again. and its December 2015 all over again, Can we try for 80 on Christmas?  Just trying to be as negative as eveybody else on the forum. How am I doing?..ho ho ho

:weenie: He's not saying that he's saying what the setup looks like verbatim-the cold air source is lacking...read more post less

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2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

The 540 line is in southern Canada lol; that's not what you want to see.

Yeah, that blue in the southeast is probably just storms with the active pac jet. 
 

All of the ensembles agree on that look going into the middle of the month 

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11 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

So I guess it will never snow again. and its December 2015 all over again, Can we try for 80 on Christmas? Pacific air..you will never see phase 8 in your lifetime!,.cold dumped into the west  Just trying to be as negative as eveybody else on the forum. How am I doing?..ho ho ho

Would you rather us be all positive and sugar coat it?

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Don't feed the trolls...this forum is all negativity

14 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

So I guess it will never snow again. and its December 2015 all over again, Can we try for 80 on Christmas? Pacific air..you will never see phase 8 in your lifetime!,.cold dumped into the west  Just trying to be as negative as eveybody else on the forum. How am I doing?..ho ho ho

 

 

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21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it'll probably take until Christmas week but that progression has been hammered upon by extended guidance and the beginnings are showing up on ensembles. just need to see it move forward in time now. makes sense given the progression of tropical forcing

I think we are all traumatized from the past several years. Maybe my memory is incorrect but we did have snow about a week and a half before Christmas last year (at least up here) and then it warmed up.  The long range always showed cold that never arrived and before you knew it - March was here. 

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Alright here's the deal..We have a strong nino in December. I've been through them 65,72,82,86,97,15..It snowed once in December..the middle of the month in 82 we had 3 inches but Christmas was 60...It was 58 degrees Christmas day in 1965 and 65 on Christmas day 2015.I know the odds are against any snow this December or a white Christmas..Just trying to be optomistic that maybe we can sneak something in maybe the last week because of the MJO progression..If we don't no big deal. Just trying to be hopeful that this strong Nino will produce in December.

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