December 2023

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Super helpful for the simple-minded folk such as myself, thank you!


.

This is a good read too on the western warm pool 

https://skybrary.aero/articles/western-pacific-warm-pool

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

And this is TYPICAL for the 80s and 90s. A couple of good periods in a winter. 2000 through 2018 (like 55 through 69) are rare and are actually what put our average snowfall totals where they are. 70s, 80s and 90s to me ARE the norm.

The last 5 years, 1 above average snowfall winter, feels like normal to me lol. Poster may have to wait a couple decades to get 2000/2018 again.

It definitely feels like we are sliding back into a stretch of crappy winters...last real long lasting arctic outbreak was 17-18 as well so it's been a torch on top of the bad snowfall years since then (except 20-21) Time will tell if this one breaks that stretch but I think some are rushing things....patience

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It definitely feels like we are sliding back into a stretch of crappy winters...last real long lasting arctic outbreak was 17-18 as well so it's been a torch on top of the bad snowfall years since then (except 20-21)

Yes, and that was the 90s in a nutshell so not alarming.

Also, one of the posters showed that there were 70 degree days in December in the 80s (82). I know some think the 80s were frigid however I do remember roasting a lot of times too. 80s were more volatile with temp swings than (frigid) like the years of the revolutionary war with Washington crossing the ice jammed Delaware lol. Snowfall was abismal in the 80s.

2000 through 2018 was 55 through 69 and we had a 30 year snow drought in between. I EXPECT the last 5 years of results to be around for a while before we get another great period. Hopefully I am still around for it.

Good news, we had some good years sprinkled in (77/78, 93/94 and 95/96). 

 

[JTA66]

The North American plate is drifting west by about 2.3cm per year. In another hundred million years or so, those warm MJO phases may work out for us. Patience!

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yes, and that was the 90s in a nutshell so not alarming.

Also, one of the posters showed that there were 70 degree days in December in the 80s (82). I know some think the 80s were frigid however I do remember roasting a lot of times too. 80s were more volatile with temp swings than (frigid) like the years of the revolutionary war with Washington crossing the ice jammed Delaware lol. Snowfall was abismal in the 80s.

2000 through 2018 was 55 through 69 and we had a 30 year snow drought in between. I EXPECT the last 5 years of results to be around for a while before we get another great period. Hopefully I am still around for it.

Good news, we had some good years sprinkled in (77/78, 93/94 and 95/96). 

 

The one thing I have noticed with snowfall at places like Islip is the all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 90s. Either very high years or very low ones. Mid range years have become very rare but were much more common from the 60s to 80s.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one thing I have noticed with snowfall at places like Islip is the all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 90s. Either very high years or very low ones. Mid range years have become very rare but were much more common from the 60s to 80s.

Yeah. Here in my town only 01/02, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 were below average snowfall winters from 2000 through 2018, however each were way below average. Of course some pretty epic years with 17/18 being my favorite.

The 90s were all or nothing as well though. 93/94 and of course the historic 95/96. 92/93 was the only average snowfall winter. The remaining 7 were well below average snowfall winters. At least IMBY. I think Eastern LI may have had better luck especially in the 80s.

 

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yes, and that was the 90s in a nutshell so not alarming.

Also, one of the posters showed that there were 70 degree days in December in the 80s (82). I know some think the 80s were frigid however I do remember roasting a lot of times too. 80s were more volatile with temp swings than (frigid) like the years of the revolutionary war with Washington crossing the ice jammed Delaware lol. Snowfall was abismal in the 80s.

2000 through 2018 was 55 through 69 and we had a 30 year snow drought in between. I EXPECT the last 5 years of results to be around for a while before we get another great period. Hopefully I am still around for it.

Good news, we had some good years sprinkled in (77/78, 93/94 and 95/96). 

 

The 80's were almost famous for bitter cold and then rain 24 hrs later.   Storm track was awful-either inland or well OTS.    

[ag3]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Still no evidence of a cooler/snowier pattern showing up on the ensembles. Our mild pattern might go into the the New Year 

 

nina forcing in the mjo warm phases keeping us in the same pattern 

There is usually a big lag. I believe January will struggle as well. Especially the 1st half of January.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The 80's were almost famous for bitter cold and then rain 24 hrs later.   Storm track was awful-either inland or well OTS.    

Yup. Basically last December in a nutshell. Back then we only had the weather channel and they used the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast, don't worry warm air is heading in"

[North and West]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It definitely feels like we are sliding back into a stretch of crappy winters...last real long lasting arctic outbreak was 17-18 as well so it's been a torch on top of the bad snowfall years since then (except 20-21) Time will tell if this one breaks that stretch but I think some are rushing things....patience

I think you're right. We got lucky in my spot since February 2021 was bonkers for snow, but that was it in five years. 

I think we (and especially the younger crew around here) are just witnessing the reality of what it's like living here in regards to snow and cold, even without the background warming state. It's either feast (4'+ here in February 2021) or famine (every other month the past five years).

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The North American plate is drifting west by about 2.3cm per year. In another hundred million years or so, those warm MJO phases may work out for us. Patience!

We have a choice of combating GW or accelerating the plate movement it seems.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

There is usually a big lag. I believe January will struggle as well. Especially the 1st half of January.

Great to hear from you! I hope all is well

[Brian5671]

Just now, North and West said:

I think you're right. We got lucky in my spot since February 2021 was bonkers for snow, but that was it in five years. 

I think we (and especially the younger crew around here) are just witnessing the reality of what it's like living here in regards to snow and cold, even without the background warming state. It's either feast (4'+ here in February 2021) or famine (every other month the past five years).

Definitely a regression to the mean occuring since 2018-the period from 2000-2018 was well above including 4 years in a row of 40+ for NYC and a few with 60+.       Nowhere to go but down given our average of 25-30 inches around here...

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah. Here in my town only 01/02, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 were below average snowfall winters from 2000 through 2018, however each were way below average. Of course some pretty epic years with 17/18 being my favorite.

The 90s were all or nothing as well though. 93/94 and of course the historic 95/96. 92/93 was the only average snowfall winter. The remaining 7 were well below average snowfall winters. At least IMBY. I think Eastern LI may have had better luck especially in the 80s.

 

The more more amplified snowfall distribution pattern began at Islip in 1994. Prior to that, midrange seasons were much more common. 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2023-04-30	5.0	0
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0
1999-04-30	19.4	0
1998-04-30	2.6	0
1997-04-30	12.4	1
1996-04-30	77.1	0
1995-04-30	5.1	0
1994-04-30	37.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1993-04-30	28.6	0
1992-04-30	13.4	0
1991-04-30	13.8	0
1990-04-30	19.0	0
1989-04-30	19.0	0
1988-04-30	19.5	0
1987-04-30	22.5	0
1986-04-30	15.2	0
1985-04-30	26.9	0
1984-04-30	27.5	0
1983-04-30	31.9	0
1982-04-30	35.4	0
1981-04-30	20.8	0
1980-04-30	9.0	0
1979-04-30	28.1	0
1978-04-30	68.0	0
1977-04-30	28.0	0
1976-04-30	30.2	0
1975-04-30	14.5	0
1974-04-30	34.0	0
1973-04-30	4.5	0
1972-04-30	15.6	0
1971-04-30	18.9	0
1970-04-30	27.0	0
1969-04-30	33.5	0
1968-04-30	22.6	0
1967-04-30	50.8	0
1966-04-30	15.7	0
1965-04-30	39.5	0
1964-04-30	39.7	6

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think you're right. We got lucky in my spot since February 2021 was bonkers for snow, but that was it in five years. 

I think we (and especially the younger crew around here) are just witnessing the reality of what it's like living here in regards to snow and cold, even without the background warming state. It's either feast (4'+ here in February 2021) or famine (every other month the past five years).

EXACTLY. This is normal to me lol. Maybe that's why I am underlaying GW lol.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I know people hear terms like MJO, PDO, El Niño, La Niña, etc and it can get lost in the translation. So a simplified version is using the term marine heatwaves. These are just blobs of much normal than normal ocean temperatures. Unfortunately as the planet warms, most of the heat actually goes into the oceans. So we have many warm blobs in the tropical and subtropical oceans.

Since the Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet and lies just west of North America, it exerts a super sized influence on our weather. Thunderstorms gravitate to the areas of warmer waters. These create giant atmospheric waves which influence where the ridges and troughs will set up. Sometimes, we get standing waves that get stuck and drive more extreme patterns here of mostly warmth but on rare occasions cold.

Unfortunately, when the Central to Western Pacific basin is much warmer than other regions, the thunderstorms line up there. And thunderstorms in those regions drive warmer patterns for us. It also also been one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. So this is why people have been referring to La Niña background state. 

When the MJO is active like it is now in the warmer phases, it can take a longer time getting to cooler phases since the Western Pacific is so warm. The MJO numbers are just regions on a map where the thunderstorms are concentrating. Plus when you have convection firing in multi warm regions like we have now, it can come out more as a chord than an individual note. 

So all these factors in recent years have been conspiring to making the Pacific Jet stronger than average which in term floods North America with mild Pacific air like we are seeing this month and many other recent ones.
 

 

This is exactly the kind of stuff I come here for.  Thanks Chris!  Bolded sentences a perfectly-put and cut through a lot of the semantic noise that’s emerged lately.

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

EXACTLY. This is normal to me lol. Maybe that's why I am underlaying GW lol.

I don’t think our crappy last few winters has anything to do with GW, just bad patterns. It’s not like we’ve missed out on marginal storms. We’ve been torching  and the storm tracks have been horrible. 
 

i think we get some snow in January this year but get a December shut out (more than an inch)

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I don’t think our crappy last few winters has anything to do with GW, just bad patterns. It’s not like we’ve missed out on marginal storms. We’ve been torching  and the storm tracks have been horrible. 
 

i think we get some snow in January this year but get a December shut out (more than an inch)

Yeah as I said if parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast can get 3 feet of snow just 2 winters ago we certainly still have the potential for a big winter 

[North and West]

Yeah as I said if parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast can get 3 feet of snow just 2 winters ago we certainly still have the potential for a big winter 

I think that AGW does its part in regards from us hitting .285 (above league average) to .255 (league average), while non-AGW stuff is we’ve had some hard hit balls that were just in the wrong spot, and therefore caught.

So, it’s still very possible, even if a little less likely from both warming and bad luck.


.

[the_other_guy]

after looking at next weekend, now that we’re only five days out, I’m willing to write off this month. If we get something for the end great, but this looks like another shit December. In shorts again this morning. Not even flinching

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

after looking at next weekend, now that we’re only five days out, I’m willing to write off this month. If we get something for the end great, but this looks like another shit December. In shorts again this morning. Not even flinching

Too early to write off the end of December when everything looks good except for the op runs.

[MJO812]

The slow down happens in the favorable phases , not the warm phases. I don't see how people can just cancel this whole month .

[North and West]

The slow down happens in the favorable phases , not the warm phases. I don't see how people can just cancel this whole month .

Even though looking at this is about as coherent to me as listening to the nanny in Muppet Babies is, it’s tradition at this point to throw in the towel when it looks unfavorable.

Truth is, we really don’t know. We have trends and likelihoods, but more than week out, we truly can’t be certain.


.

[donsutherland1]

The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome):

The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low.

The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions.

With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).

 

Things could be worse from a winter lover's perspective. This most definitely is not December 2015 where New York City experienced a monthly mean temperature of 50.8°, decimating the record of 44.1° that had been set in 2001.

Finally, Miami hit 89° yesterday, which tied its December monthly record. Miami is all but certain to record its warmest year on record. In fact, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 will all rank among its 10 warmest years on record.

[Allsnow]

Another mild December day outside currently 

[FPizz]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another mild December day outside currently 

Isn't the high supposed to be what the average high typically is for today?  Warmer than average morning though.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Isn't the high supposed to be what the average high typically is for today?  Warmer than average morning though.

48 is average at ewr.  Already at 52

Tomorrow looks average then 2 days below before back above and torchy this weekend 

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

48 is average at ewr.  Already at 52

Tomorrow looks average then 2 days below before back above and torchy this weekend 

We'll probably be in the 60s on Sunday ahead of the storm. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome):

The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low.

The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions.

With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).

 

Things could be worse from a winter lover's perspective. This most definitely is not December 2015 where New York City experienced a monthly mean temperature of 50.8°, decimating the record of 44.1° that had been set in 2001.

Finally, Miami hit 89° yesterday, which tied its December monthly record. Miami is all but certain to record its warmest year on record. In fact, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 will all rank among its 10 warmest years on record.

Great post, Don. I wouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of a 2015-esque month, however. Obviously, we are only 3 days into the month, but 2023 is running 0.8F warmer than 2015 in those 3 days. So, we are certainly off to a running start.

[MJO812]

ORH