December 2023

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

that's the case the EURO has it weaker in phase 4 than GEFS and quicker to 8.

Those RMMs are chasing convection to the east. The actual VP anomaly charts from Euro and GEFS never get the actual forcing past 4-7 for the next few weeks.  But this is to be expected with the record +30C SSTs from near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. Strong forcing near the Dateline is still in the warmer phase 7. 

 

 

[Eduardo]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those RMMs are chasing convection to the east. The actual VP anomaly charts from Euro and GEFS never get the actual forcing past 4-7 for the next few weeks.  But this is to be expected with the record +30C SSTs from near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. 
 

Is this why they’ve been so unreliable over the past few years?  I’ve just been reflexively disregarding them, but until today never really thought about the reason(s) why they weren’t worth trusting.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those RMMs are chasing convection to the east. The actual VP anomaly charts from Euro and GEFS never get the actual forcing past 4-7 for the next few weeks.  But this is to be expected with the record +30C SSTs from near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. 
 

how? that is showing subsidence over the MC after the 15th. the rising air is over the dateline and east as well as the western IO. those are phases 7, 8 and 1

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those RMMs are chasing convection to the east. The actual VP anomaly charts from Euro and GEFS never get the actual forcing past 4-7 for the next few weeks.  But this is to be expected with the record +30C SSTs from near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. Strong forcing near the Dateline is still in the warmer phase 7. 

 

 

Spot on, incredible analysis as usual from you

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Spot on, incredible analysis as usual from you

 

those Hovmoller plots show the MJO propagating into phases 7 and 8. there is sinking air into the MC when looking at straight VP plots too. not sure how there is any forcing into 4 or 5 here

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those Hovmoller plots show the MJO propagating into phases 7 and 8. there is sinking air into the MC when looking at straight VP plots too. not sure how there is any forcing into 4 or 5 here

Right. I mean, yes there are 30c ssts in the MC, but there are also 30c ssts in nino 4 and part of 3.4. Once the mjo wave propagates through the MC now, the forcing will move over the warmest ssts in the nino areas. 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those Hovmoller plots show the MJO propagating into phases 7 and 8. there is sinking air into the MC when looking at straight VP plots too. not sure how there is any forcing into 4 or 5 here

Strong forcing near the Dateline is still phase 7. While we can debate how reliable week 2 models forecasts are, they are not showing a MJO 8 pattern. If we verify that Aleutians ridge and Western Trough with an Eastern Ridge, then it will be reflective of  a more MJO 4-7 pattern in mid-December. But Tip just had a very good point about the Pacific Jet in the main El Niño thread. It too could produce a more La Niña-like pattern which is similar to warmer MJO phases pattern. So we could very well see a blend of warmer influences that may not perfectly match any given composite exactly. Just that the lowest common denominator will be a Pacific pattern intent on producing warmth with a very fast jet. Whether we describe it as El Niño or La Niña may not make much difference on the final outcome.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how? that is showing subsidence over the MC after the 15th. the rising air is over the dateline and east as well as the western IO. those are phases 7, 8 and 1

Check out the old gefs in the long range to the new one.

Gefs is correcting colder because of the MJO.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strong forcing near the Dateline is still phase 7. While we can debate how reliable week 2 models forecasts are, they are not showing a MJO 8 pattern. If we verify that Aleutians ridge and Western Trough with an Eastern Ridge, then it will be reflective of  a more MJO 4-7 pattern in mid-December. But Tip just had a very good point about the Pacific Jet in the main El Niño thread. It too could produce a more La Niña-like pattern which is similar to warmer MJO phases pattern. So we could very well see a blend of warmer influences that may not perfectly match any given composite exactly. Just that the lowest common denominator will be a Pacific pattern intent on producing warmth with a very fast jet. Whether we describe it as El Niño or La Niña may not make much difference on the final outcome.

 

 

 

Look at my post above. The gefs changed to colder outcome. 

 

[Terpeast]

I’ve found that MJO 7 is actually a precursor to some of the biggest EC snowstorms. So I would love for us to get to 7 sooner than later, and keep the forcing around or just east of the dateline. MJO 7 may be a mild look in December, but think that changes later into the winter. 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look at my post above. The gefs changed to colder outcome. 

 

Thank you for the weenies because you know I'm right. Enjoy your torch Allsnow.

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thank you for the weenies because you know I'm right. Enjoy your torch Allsnow.

Haha. EPS says good luck 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. EPS says good luck 

weeklies are still insistent on a pattern change holiday week. it makes sense, the torch is pretty transitory as the MJO circles around

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies are still insistent on a pattern change holiday week. it makes sense, the torch is pretty transitory as the MJO circles around

Yep weeklies have been consistent.

The PV is also weakening alot

 

[EastonSN+]

I am a little confused lol. Is the MJO making it to 8 or not.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

Good morning Rmine 1, Torch Tiger, Allsnow. Even at worst there will always be hope and a tree lighting. Stay well, as always …..

 

 

Palm trees will eventually become more common around NYC in coming decades once the January average temperature gets above 36°.

https://modernfarmer.com/2018/03/will-climate-change-make-your-hometown-full-of-palm-trees-this-is-literally-a-story-about-palm-trees-its-not-a-leading-question/

But palm trees are popping up in more locations than ever before, and can serve as signposts since they can only grow in certain climates. If you’ve got a palm tree that survives year-round, that tells you something about the local climate. To learn more, researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory took a closer look at the gentle, picturesque palm tree.

Lead author Tammo Reichgelt, who has previously studied Antarctic ice melt, looked into the specific requirements of palms, and used records of more than 20,000 fossil palm records to see how palms have spread over time. Palm seedlings, in particular, are extremely sensitive to cold; palms in general cannot survive if the average temperature during the coldest month of the year is lower than 36 degrees Fahrenheit.

That need for consistently warm, or at least not consistently cold, weather is why palms are so associated with warm climates; they are hardy plants, widespread and capable of growing in both dry and wet areas in great concentration, but winter knocks them out. That said! Rising temperatures might allow palms to survive in places not ordinarily considered tropical.

Let’s take, just for example, Norfolk, Virginia and Greenville, North Carolina. As recently as the 1980s, these cities were too cold to permit palms to survive without a hefty amount of human assistance. Now, though, they’ve breached that climate border; Reichgelt’s research suggests palms could survive there now.

 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am a little confused lol. Is the MJO making it to 8 or not.

Depends who you ask

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Palm trees will eventually become more common around NYC in coming decades once the January average temperature gets above 36°.

https://modernfarmer.com/2018/03/will-climate-change-make-your-hometown-full-of-palm-trees-this-is-literally-a-story-about-palm-trees-its-not-a-leading-question/

But palm trees are popping up in more locations than ever before, and can serve as signposts since they can only grow in certain climates. If you’ve got a palm tree that survives year-round, that tells you something about the local climate. To learn more, researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory took a closer look at the gentle, picturesque palm tree.

Lead author Tammo Reichgelt, who has previously studied Antarctic ice melt, looked into the specific requirements of palms, and used records of more than 20,000 fossil palm records to see how palms have spread over time. Palm seedlings, in particular, are extremely sensitive to cold; palms in general cannot survive if the average temperature during the coldest month of the year is lower than 36 degrees Fahrenheit.

That need for consistently warm, or at least not consistently cold, weather is why palms are so associated with warm climates; they are hardy plants, widespread and capable of growing in both dry and wet areas in great concentration, but winter knocks them out. That said! Rising temperatures might allow palms to survive in places not ordinarily considered tropical.

Let’s take, just for example, Norfolk, Virginia and Greenville, North Carolina. As recently as the 1980s, these cities were too cold to permit palms to survive without a hefty amount of human assistance. Now, though, they’ve breached that climate border; Reichgelt’s research suggests palms could survive there now.

 

 

BRB moving to Yellowknife. 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. EPS says good luck 

This is a torch ?

[North and West]

Haha. EPS says good luck 

.

[North and West]

Palm trees will eventually become more common around NYC in coming decades once the January average temperature gets above 36°.

https://modernfarmer.com/2018/03/will-climate-change-make-your-hometown-full-of-palm-trees-this-is-literally-a-story-about-palm-trees-its-not-a-leading-question/

But palm trees are popping up in more locations than ever before, and can serve as signposts since they can only grow in certain climates. If you’ve got a palm tree that survives year-round, that tells you something about the local climate. To learn more, researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory took a closer look at the gentle, picturesque palm tree.

Lead author Tammo Reichgelt, who has previously studied Antarctic ice melt, looked into the specific requirements of palms, and used records of more than 20,000 fossil palm records to see how palms have spread over time. Palm seedlings, in particular, are extremely sensitive to cold; palms in general cannot survive if the average temperature during the coldest month of the year is lower than 36 degrees Fahrenheit.

That need for consistently warm, or at least not consistently cold, weather is why palms are so associated with warm climates; they are hardy plants, widespread and capable of growing in both dry and wet areas in great concentration, but winter knocks them out. That said! Rising temperatures might allow palms to survive in places not ordinarily considered tropical.

Let’s take, just for example, Norfolk, Virginia and Greenville, North Carolina. As recently as the 1980s, these cities were too cold to permit palms to survive without a hefty amount of human assistance. Now, though, they’ve breached that climate border; Reichgelt’s research suggests palms could survive there now.

 

 

That’s amazing. Thank you for sharing. I love them.


.

[rclab]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Palm trees will eventually become more common around NYC in coming decades once the January average temperature gets above 36°.

https://modernfarmer.com/2018/03/will-climate-change-make-your-hometown-full-of-palm-trees-this-is-literally-a-story-about-palm-trees-its-not-a-leading-question/

But palm trees are popping up in more locations than ever before, and can serve as signposts since they can only grow in certain climates. If you’ve got a palm tree that survives year-round, that tells you something about the local climate. To learn more, researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory took a closer look at the gentle, picturesque palm tree.

Lead author Tammo Reichgelt, who has previously studied Antarctic ice melt, looked into the specific requirements of palms, and used records of more than 20,000 fossil palm records to see how palms have spread over time. Palm seedlings, in particular, are extremely sensitive to cold; palms in general cannot survive if the average temperature during the coldest month of the year is lower than 36 degrees Fahrenheit.

That need for consistently warm, or at least not consistently cold, weather is why palms are so associated with warm climates; they are hardy plants, widespread and capable of growing in both dry and wet areas in great concentration, but winter knocks them out. That said! Rising temperatures might allow palms to survive in places not ordinarily considered tropical.

Let’s take, just for example, Norfolk, Virginia and Greenville, North Carolina. As recently as the 1980s, these cities were too cold to permit palms to survive without a hefty amount of human assistance. Now, though, they’ve breached that climate border; Reichgelt’s research suggests palms could survive there now.

 

Thank you for the article BW. If I make it to the century plus mark, I’ll probably end my existence being clocked by a coconut in the postage stamp. Stay well, as always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

Despite clouds, drizzle, and periods of rain, temperatures rose into the mild 50s.

Down South, Miami reached 89°. That tied the December monthly record that was set on December 13, 1900 and tied on December 3, 1902 and and December 10, 2009.

Tomorrow will be another mild day before cooler, but not very cold, air arrives for most of the rest of the week. Overall, the first 10 days of December remain on track to finish with a solidly warmer than normal anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter.  

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was -1.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.935 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.269 (RMM). The November 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.104 (RMM).

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, North and West said:

That’s amazing. Thank you for sharing. I love them.


.

The windmill palms have been doing very well on Long Island as long as you wrap them ahead of the winter.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The windmill palms have been doing very well on Long Island as long as you wrap them ahead of the winter.

 

 

I have achieved success of making elephant ear plants (colocosia) perennial on the uws. These are true tropical plants native to SE Asia. They have some cold hardiness, but like Carolina coast zone 8. The past three winters they have survived and come back after cutting back and burying in mulch. I use it as a teaching tool for my Barnard/Columbia garden club as well as school groups from Harlem. It’s a great example of our zones changing rapidly. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have achieved success of making elephant ear plants (colocosia) perennial on the uws. These are true tropical plants native to SE Asia. They have some cold hardiness, but like Carolina coast zone 8. The past three winters they have survived and come back after cutting back and burying in mulch. I use it as a teaching tool for my Barnard/Columbia garden club as well as school groups from Harlem. It’s a great example of our zones changing rapidly. 

This what I normally do, I dig out, pot and overwinter inside, but that’s not necessary anymore. 

[weathermedic]

….meanwhile severe thunderstorm warnings now in western NY

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

That’s amazing. Thank you for sharing. I love them.


.

Yeah, I enjoy seeing them as well. 

In Florida. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. EPS says good luck 

Still trying to figure out where a certain someone thinks all this frigid arctic cold is going to come from being that it’s all on the complete opposite side of the pole….

 

 

 

 

[North and West]

Yeah, I enjoy seeing them as well. 
In Florida. 

I’m going this week! 77° on Saturday with Sun and clouds.


.