brooklynwx99 Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half 4 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half Second half of winter or December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: So the fist 4 days of December are averaging +5 to +10. The next 4 will average closer to normal. Then we are right back to the 50s by later next week and more days in the +5 to +10 range. So it looks like NYC is on track for another December over 40°. The new 91-20 warmer December average for NYC is 39.1°. The sky is falling x 1000. Yawn. 45F and rain 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: They’re starting to meltdown…just wait until Christmas when most don’t have a flake in that area I don't see any relevant melts in that sub forum from the knowledgeable posters. Just the usual suspects like this forum and the MA forum who always melt every year that is not an all out snow blitz. Just pay attention to Ray, ORH WXman etc and you will be good. Why would anyone with knowledge melt now lol. It's 12/3 in an El nino year. We waited till mid Jan in 14/15 and had an all time year. If the METS start melting different story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half I just do not get how some feel that this somehow proves NAOs are now useless/no longer help us. An NAO itself is not enough like 97/98. I feel as though some posters are just looking at 2000 onwards and thinking something has drastically changed, when all one has to do is look at the 90s to see what is happening now is not unexpected. 2000 through 2018 was similar to 55 through 69. These periods are relatively rare and not the norm. What has happened 2019 onwards just reminds me of my childhood winters lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 What I am hoping for is a 2000/2001 type year. The first event was December 30 and we ended up above average for snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: The sky is falling x 1000. Yawn. 45F and rain 40°+ Decembers are the opposite the sky is falling for most people off this forum since they can save on heating bills and spend more on the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What I am hoping for is a 2000/2001 type year. The first event was December 30 and we ended up above average for snowfall. That December was frigid though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Second half of winter or December? definitely the winter, but there are signs that the PNA improves around the holidays anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Those silly RMM charts are finally catching up to the slower mjo pass in 4-7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: 40°+ Decembers are the opposite the sky is falling for most people off this forum since they can save on heating bills and spend more on the holidays. Pretty much though many would still like to see some wintry weather for the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That December was frigid though We could be frigid too by the end of the month. MJO will be in 8 by then and the AO looks to remain negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pretty much though many would still like to see some wintry weather for the holidays. Later starts to winter especially in the Northeast have become the norm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 MJO plot finally getting us to 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: MJO plot finally getting us to 8 On that plot and the euro you see the curl back at the end which is its way of correcting slower in the warm phases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 For more insight into the role of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in December, New York City has seen a steady increase in temperature during cases where the AO was -1.000 or below. However, there is no clear trend, yet, when it comes to snowfall. The AO remains an important, but not exclusively important variable, when it comes to snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: On that plot and the euro you see the curl back at the end which is its way of correcting slower in the warm phases Remember the EURO MJO always plays catch up to the GEFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Later starts to winter especially in the Northeast have become the norm. I am surprised to see some blue on the map. Too bad it's the west and Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: MJO plot finally getting us to 8 In MJO 4-6 for only 10 days. Quite brief. Once we get to 7, things will start to get interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We could be frigid too by the end of the month. MJO will be in 8 by then and the AO looks to remain negative. Sure for a few days but we'll still be above normal for the month. At least +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 3, 2023 Author Share Posted December 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: On that plot and the euro you see the curl back at the end which is its way of correcting slower in the warm phases it's not correcting slower. it's been modeled pretty consistently to get into 7 and 8 by mid-month 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Would like to point out that a number of winters which featured some great snowstorms started out with some mild to warm weather in early December. 1960 even had several days with temperatures mid-upper 50s prior to the cold and snow which arrived on December 12th. 1982 had a day or two in the lower 70s in early Dec prior to the incredible snowstorm Feb 11, 1983. It is not uncommon to see some mild weather early in Dec prior to a more active and colder winter. WX/PT 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sure for a few days but we'll still be above normal for the month. At least +2 Maybe, but if we have snowfall in the back half of the month the monthly temps would not matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: MJO plot finally getting us to 8 Looking better and the ensembles are getting colder in the mid range compared to past runs . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: a -NAO is absolutely not useless... that is silly. NYC pretty much needs a strong -NAO to get a 12"+ event or greater a really crappy Pacific can negate a -NAO, but we have had some pretty bad Pacifics over the last couple of years. that should change with the Nino in place, especially in the second half Agreed. 15-16 took til mid january 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: Agreed. 15-16 took til mid january That was basically the whole winter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That was basically the whole winter lol 3 week winter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 3 week winter here It seems like that these days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Remember the EURO MJO always plays catch up to the GEFS. Euro sniffed out the upcoming stronger pass in phase 4 before the gefs which was in the COD before adjusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Euro sniffed out the upcoming stronger pass in phase 4 before the gefs which was in the COD before adjusting If that's the case the EURO has it weaker in phase 4 than GEFS and quicker to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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