December 2023

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

Delivering mail and packages in short sleeves today

Was pretty cold on the water off the Rockaways most of the day; fog and southerly breeze and overcast. Sun broke out late but not enough to save the day.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today may be the first 60° day during early December in NYC a few days after the AO going -3.3. It could also be a record for consecutive 50°+ days at the same time.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

There is one other case where the AO was -3 or below during the last week of November and then the temperature hit 60° during the first week in December. That occurred in 2010.

AO:
November 25, 2010: -3.335
November 26, 2010: -4.058
November 27, 2010: -3.935

High Temperature:
December 1, 2010: 60°

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Was pretty cold on the water off the Rockaways most of the day; fog and southerly breeze and overcast. Sun broke out late but not enough to save the day.

Was gorgeous up here if not mostly cloudy. I was outside in a T-shirt much of the afternoon. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is one other case where the AO was -3 or below during the last week of November and then the temperature hit 60° during the first week in December. That occurred in 2010.

AO:
November 25, 2010: -3.335
November 26, 2010: -4.058
November 27, 2010: -3.935

High Temperature:
December 1, 2010: 60°

 

We held the -NAO through the end of December that year, with the N. Pacific ridge even intensifying (expanded -AO re-up).

https://ibb.co/qB11CVd

https://ibb.co/vZCvYJd

Current models today have -NAO sticking in the medium range, and maybe the long range.  

The -PNA in Dec 2010 was actually the start of a phase shift, We hadn't seen values anywhere near that in the PNA region since satellite era in 1948. Dec 2021 eventually topped that. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today may be the first 60° day during early December in NYC a few days after the AO going -3.3. It could also be a record for consecutive 50°+ days at the same time.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

Proof that we can be mild with PAC air despite -AO/-NAO

[NorthShoreWx]

I was inside today painting a bathroom. It feels like I got cheated out of a warm day.  Should have gone for a hike.  The good news is it was comfortable with the window open.  Better timing for painting than I imagined it would be 

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is one other case where the AO was -3 or below during the last week of November and then the temperature hit 60° during the first week in December. That occurred in 2010.

AO:
November 25, 2010: -3.335
November 26, 2010: -4.058
November 27, 2010: -3.935

High Temperature:
December 1, 2010: 60°

 

December blizzard confirmed.

[wishcast_hater]

Was gorgeous up here if not mostly cloudy. I was outside in a T-shirt much of the afternoon. 

Terrible weather in my neck of the woods. Chilly until noon and then warmed up but stuck in clouds and fog all day and even more now.


.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I was inside today painting a bathroom. It feels like I got cheated out of a warm day.  Should have gone for a hike.  The good news is it was comfortable with the window open.  Better timing for painting than I imagined it would be 

Hopefully this winter there will be numerous spot on the money measurements from Smithtown and plenty of snow hikes. Need to preserve our >35” average since the late 1990s. 

[Rmine1]

London will outperform NYC this winter in terms of snow 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s just that the geographic footprint is much smaller with Arctic outbreaks nowadays like with the record 2021 cold in the Plains not making it to the East Coast. So a smaller percentage of the earths surface is able to experience record cold at any given time than in the past. But even if these outbreaks have a smaller aerial coverage, they can be intense in the more limited areas that get them. 

I’m still blown away by the Xmas cold wave last year, that was incredibly impressive in the NYC area. I bottomed out around 7, granted I’m further south and I believe was just outside of the coldest air. But that alone was remarkable. 

We can get cold and I would never argue we can’t. However, it does seem like a recurring issue lately (which is anecdotal, not data, and has no future implication - to be specific) where the cold we do get is very short lived and followed by immediate warm ups to significant AN departures. 

When was the last true multi week arctic outbreak in the northeast, you know the kind where the news runs constant “the polar vortex has arrived!” headlines?

Late 2010’s I think? 

Lastly, I know consistent cold does not always equal snowy as periods within the 70’s and 80’s would attest. However, Bluewave also showed good data last year I believe where the average temperature in the NYC metro for DJF does show correlation with snow totals. I don’t remember the thresholds but when the average temp climbed above it, our snow totals plummet. This of course makes sense. I think some other members did similar for other eastern cities, apologies if I’m confusing anyone up or misremembering who posted what, you guys post so many amazing data dumps across the eastern sub forums it can be hard to remember specifically.

Of course for a significant single storm it doesn’t matter if we’re in deep arctic air before or after, it’s just more of an overview of the winter as a whole and how our snowier winters tended to be from a temp perspective. That info I find fascinating and meaningful. 

We don’t need major BN anomalies for a good snowstorm here, but I’ll always take the cold and then roll the dice. At least then that’s one failure mode abated. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

London will outperform NYC this winter in terms of snow 

I hope so

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is one other case where the AO was -3 or below during the last week of November and then the temperature hit 60° during the first week in December. That occurred in 2010.

AO:
November 25, 2010: -3.335
November 26, 2010: -4.058
November 27, 2010: -3.935

High Temperature:
December 1, 2010: 60°

 

The main difference in 2010 was that the 60° day occurred when the AO was closer to neutral at -0.3  while this year the AO was still -2.5.

 

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature
2010-11-28	47
2010-11-29	48
2010-11-30	57
2010-12-01	60

[donsutherland1]

Some weekly numbers:

[Allsnow]

Another rainy mild December….

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another rainy mild December….

 

 

 

But the -nao!

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another rainy mild December….

 

 

 

Don't tell that to the New England forum

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't tell that to the New England forum

They’re starting to meltdown…just wait until Christmas when most don’t have a flake in that area 

[rclab]

10 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

London will outperform NYC this winter in terms of snow 

 

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

I hope so

 

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another rainy mild December….

 

 

 

Good morning Rmine 1, Torch Tiger, Allsnow. Even at worst there will always be hope and a tree lighting. Stay well, as always …..

 

 

[Allsnow]

Bizarreness 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

But the -nao!

Fuck the negative NAO

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

They’re starting to meltdown…just wait until Christmas when most don’t have a flake in that area 

Hopefully the models are right about the change near Christmas. 

 

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the models are right about the change near Christmas. 

 

 

No models go out that far currently 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

No models go out that far currently 

Weeklies 

We need to get back to snowy winters. 

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fuck the negative NAO

+NAO is better?  

[SACRUS]

 

50 / 50 cloudy , fog and light rain / drizzle mist.  0.56in the bucket sofar. A bit cooler Dec 5 - Dec 7 before moderating/ warmer Dec 8 - Dec 11. Then perhaps another sharp in /out trough.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 70 (1998)
NYC: 69 (1998)
LGA: 69 (1998)

Lows:

EWR: 9 (1976) earliest single digit low
NYC:9 (1976)
LGA: 11 (1976)

Historical:

 

1838:

Cleveland Abbe, an American meteorologist, and advocate of time zones was born on this day. He was trained as an astronomer and was appointed the director of the Cincinnati Observatory in 1868. He eventually turned to meteorology and inaugurated a public weather service that served as a model for today's National Weather Service.

1856 - A severe blizzard began to rage across Iowa and Kansas. It produced as much as 16 inches of snow in Iowa. (David Ludlum)

1926 - Yuma, AZ, was soaked with 1.10 inch of rain, and by the 10th of the month had received 4.43 inches, making it the wettest December of record. The average annual rainfall for Yuma is 3.38 inches. (3rd-10th) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - Birmingham, AL, was drenched with 9.22 inches of rain in 24 hours. The rains caused severe flash flooding which literally submerged traffic. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Stormy weather in the northwestern U.S. finally began to abate, but not before Gold Beach OR was drenched with 7.94 inches of rain in 24 hours. Low pressure spread snow from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Gale force winds ushered cold air into the northeastern U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 48 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Heavy snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northern New England. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 31 inches, at Limestone. Presque Isle ME reported a record 30 inches of snow in 24 hours, along with wind gusts to 46 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

So the fist 4 days of December are averaging +5 to +10. The next 4 will average closer to normal. Then we are right back to the 50s by later next week and more days in the +5 to +10 range. So it looks like NYC is on track for another December over 40°. The new 91-20 warmer December average for NYC is 39.1°.
 

 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

+NAO is better?  

Positive PNA =)

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

But the -nao!

Right!

I think a lot of posters mistakenly associate a neg NAO with cold. All the NAO does is block and keep the SE ridge at bay. 

So, while posters are saying lol neg NAO is useless, it ALWAYS WAS with a bad PAC. 

As 1997/1998 will show, strong blocking with a bad PAC = mild and rain. Always was and always will. What is happening now is expected with blocking and a bad PAC (especially this early in the season).

PAC drives the cold. NAO is the storm traffic cop slowing down and "blocking" storms. 

We could lose blocking and get a favorable PAC and rack up the snow like 13/14. Or we can keep blocking and rain like 97/98.