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December 2023


brooklynwx99
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21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO

After seeing how hostile the Pacific has become since 18-19, the phase NAO and AO isn’t as important as it used to be. 20-21 was the only time the NAO and AO was able to coincide with a favorable Pacific. Last winter the Pacific completely muted a monthly -AO value in the -2.5 to -3.0 range which never happened before. So unless we have Pacific on our side, a -NAO and -AO will be going to waste. Hopefully we get get some semblance of a backloaded El Niño this winter with the Pacific backing off during another -AO -NAO interval. 

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35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

60 on Saturday? Another warm start to Another December 

 

31 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

I think you guys now have the Mid-Atlantic forum beat for most negative sub-forum...congrats lol

 

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Reality is not negative

 

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is it reality?

 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess everyone hates winter on here =(

Good late morning everyone. When Anthony fully enjoys winter. Per chance to dream, stay well all, as always ….

 

IMG_6937.png

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A climate link might be found, at least to some extent, if an attribution study finds that, for example, a marine heatwave altered the hemispheric pattern. AGW has led to a pronounced increase in the frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. Of course, internal variability will also be an important factor.

In the long-range, even as there will remain a lot of variability in season-to-season snowfall, average snowfall will very likely decline as winters continue to warm. The winters in the lower Middle Atlantic region provide some insight into what lies ahead.

Based on a regression equation that included Norfolk, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC (coefficient of determination: 0.836), it is likely that winters will become much less snowy, on average. The current seasonal average for New York City is 29.8”. With season-to-season variability, there will still be some snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent.

image.png.10b2a4256ec733b6054d82e52cd2ecc4.png

For New York City and Philadelphia, average snowfall for winters with mean temperatures of 37° or above and 40° or above were:

Winters with a Mean Temperature of 37.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 38.5°; Mean Snowfall: 17.5″ (n=27)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 39.0°; Mean Snowfall: 12.7″ (n=33)

For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 40.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 40.9°; Mean Snowfall: 10.3″ (n=5)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.2°; Mean Snowfall: 9.9″ (n=9)

Those numbers are broadly consistent with the results from the regression equation.

Below is the distribution of seasonal snowfall for winters that had mean temperatures of 37.0° or above:

image.png.aadd17bec70b290c4cdb71386809db19.png

image.png.4f5a43893cc3e9e94adc0ba48c5cf5a8.png

 

If this data is representative, New York City's 30-year average snowfall (Central Park) could decline to about 20" by the mid-2030s. There will still be some big years. Winter 2009-10 in Baltimore and Washington, DC, provides an example of such an outcome in a warmer climate.

Always love your analysis! I *think* we're underplaying the ability to capture and store carbon in the near future; remember, internal combustion engines were significantly improved in emissions and particle emissions by the catalytic converter. (If you're ever around classic cars or the Tomorrowland Speedway or two cycle leaf blowers/lawn mowers, you can immediately smell gas engines sans catalytic converters) 

I think we significantly underplay our ingenuity to form the planet, in both bad and good ways. 

Thank you for coming to my TED talk. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Tug Hill plateau.   Tons of Lake Effect...problem is there is not much else there...

unpopular opinion BUT as an upstate native, id take upstate over the nyc metro any day of the week. but if youre not in albs, cuse, rochester, of buffalo you got nothing to do but shovel 

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8 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997

In the absence of a pronounced and persistent SE ridge you won't see something 2015 like.  97 maybe, Dec 97 relative to 2015 and some other recent Decembers was not THAT warm.  Something more like a December 99/14/18 is more likely in this pattern.  One of the interesting things myself and a couple other Mets discussed in recent days is how the Op GFS/GEFS are doing the inverse of what they did last winter.  Last winter we so often saw the GEFS look sort of decent days 7-12 yet the Op runs were torches.  This last few days we see the reverse often, semi ugly GEFS runs but Op runs that have shown periodic colder shots and chances.  Last winter more often than not those Op runs verified closer to reality.  Its possible that in this regime we are in enough ensemble members are being fooled to skew the mean too far one direction.

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