December 2023

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

BAM who flip flops like fish out of water lol Anyway, how exactly is it going to get arctic cold here by late December when all of the arctic air is on the total other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia at that point??? I don’t care if the NAO is -10. Please explain that one to me. That should be a real good trick

How do you know that all the cold will be on the other side ? Crystal Ball?

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

It doesn't have to be bitterly cold to get snow in December.

Exactly 

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can we at least wait until the month is over? jesus christ

Few trolls are ruining this thread.

 

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly 

Few trolls are ruining this thread.

 

“Few trolls are ruining this thread.”

Look kids, Big Ben, Parliament. 

[uofmiami]

 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

People expect too much on the coast....we are lucky to get 3 inches in Dec...Jan/Feb/Mar better odds for the coast

We’re surrounded by warm waters here. Speaks for itself. 

[Rmine1]

I made a career based on the notion that “you're only as good as your last trade”.

Mother Nature clearly shat the bed last winter, so the premiums for call options on winter ‘24 are super cheap. Do all the prognosticating you want, I’m long “rip ups” because the probability for another shut out for the metro is very low. 
 

I rarely advise buying premium, but even if this year is another stinker, the risk of being wrong is too cheap to ignore. We don’t need a blockbuster to be on the right side of the trade this year. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

Yeah I have my doubts how much the MJO really matters when ENSO is in a moderate or strong regime.  It most definitely caused Dec 2015 to act like a Nina vs a Nino....in reality it acted like a February La Nina pattern, not so much a December one, but regardless a raging SER is unheard of in a mod or strong Nino December.   I am not sure if the MJO wave now or even 10 days from now is strong enough to really be causing the regime we will be in.  To me it looks more or less like your usual mod-strong Nino December where nobody is really cold but the Carolinas to FL average the coldest 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes thanks for this. I was more referring to how it seems, and only on this forum, that winter is canned if the MJO is unfavorable. MJO is a part of the piece. About 5 years ago we were going on about the Siberian snow advance, only to find out that that dissertation really did not pan out well at all. Ocean warming is only accelerating and going to increase more. One doesn't have to go back too far in time to find the infamous slogan of "the solution to pollution is dilution". Man once thought the oceans to be so vast we cannot impact them. That is definitely not true as we see with ocean rise and acidification. The heat also has to go somewhere.

That said, all I was trying to do was point out that 5 pages of MJO discussion is not conducive to the whole picture. It does play a role, but so far, where you would expect snow in late November in the northeast, there has been snow. I get people want it in their backyard, but that is not most of the forums climate. That doesn't mean this winter is trashed already. 

Kind of funny to only be looking at anomalies as we approach the coldest time of the year. It is a warning sign to see a +6-10 models in the arctic on this side. The average for Utqiavik for December is -2 for a high and -14 for a low, add a +10 to that and you are still below zero at "night" where the sun never fully comes above the horizon. Still alarming, but doesn't spell the end of cold for us. We are definitely warming, but we aren't going snowless this decade, likely in my lifetime though.

The November pattern saw the influence of the colder MJO phases for the Northeast. Plus we have had a decadal pattern of colder temperature trends in the Northeast. So two reasons for the colder temperatures in the Northeast. As for the MJO cancelling the whole winter, we just have to take things one step at a time. We know that we get warmer than average patterns when the MJO is in the 4-7 phases. And we know that record warmth in those regions slows the MJO in those phases. I don’t think anyone is canceling winter in December during an El Niño year when El Niños are mostly defined by what happens January 15th to February 28th. But if we continue to see MJO 4-7 activity ,then it could interfere with the typical backloaded El Niño winter response. Hopefully, the forcing focuses more in the regions near the Dateline allowing some semblance of a late winter El Niño pattern. So we are just going to have to be patient since that period is still pretty far out in time to have much confidence about. 
 

 

 

[MJO812]

Every RIMM plot this morning has the MJO in phase 7 by the 15th and no model has a torch after day 1 to day 5. It's all low amp that's ends day 15 ( near N to plus 1 ( maybe plus 1 to 2 at best)

[Dark Star]

Happy First and last day of Meteorological Winter.  Just kidding.  I'm sure there will be a 2-4 day period where the mercury stays below 32 F.  

[EastonSN+]

One reaction I do fear, and full disclaimer I do not think this will happen, is pegging GW as the culprit if we end up with a 97/98 scenario. A GOA trough too far east can flood the continent with warmth as was the case in 97/98. 2000/2018 was one of the snowiest periods in our history (and was the snowiest in history where I am), and the recent regression to the mean has sparked a GW fear as was the case in the late 80s through 99, yet we witnessed 2000 through 2018 afterwards.

If we go 20 years with only 3 above average snowfall winters (1980 through 99) then I may change my stance. So far we have had 1 above average snowfall winter in the last 5. A ways to go.

Finally I do see the warmer waters. However, are we sure they cannot cycle and cool like El nino/la Nina? Are we SURE this NEVER happened before? Do we KNOW the culprit? Are we NEVER going to get a volcano again to cool the atmosphere? Are we never going to be able to develop a way to slow/reverse global warming? 

Not arguing with anyone, just want to avoid definitives.

Good news, MJO looks better this morning. Probably will slow however 20th through 25th would be perfect timing.

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every RIMM plot this morning has the MJO in phase 7 by the 15th and no model has a torch after day 1 to day 5. It's all low amp that's ends day 15 ( near N to plus 1 ( maybe plus 1 to 2 at best)

We are above normal for the first half if not more this month. The ens look mild to the very end of their runs so far 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We are above normal for the first half if not more this month. The ens look mild to the very end of their runs so far 

Better than the other way around. 

Check out 2000/2001 on rays winter storm archive. First storm December 30th then off to a solid winter. 

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Deja vu?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

One reaction I do fear, and full disclaimer I do not think this will happen, is pegging GW as the culprit if we end up with a 97/98 scenario. A GOA trough too far east can flood the continent with warmth as was the case in 97/98. 2000/2018 was one of the snowiest periods in our history (and was the snowiest in history where I am), and the recent regression to the mean has sparked a GW fear as was the case in the late 80s through 99, yet we witnessed 2000 through 2018 afterwards.

If we go 20 years with only 3 above average snowfall winters (1980 through 99) then I may change my stance. So far we have had 1 above average snowfall winter in the last 5. A ways to go.

Finally I do see the warmer waters. However, are we sure they cannot cycle and cool like El nino/la Nina? Are we SURE this NEVER happened before? Do we KNOW the culprit? Are we NEVER going to get a volcano again to cool the atmosphere? Are we never going to be able to develop a way to slow/reverse global warming? 

Not arguing with anyone, just want to avoid definitives.

Good news, MJO looks better this morning. Probably will slow however 20th through 25th would be perfect timing.

A climate link might be found, at least to some extent, if an attribution study finds that, for example, a marine heatwave altered the hemispheric pattern. AGW has led to a pronounced increase in the frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. Of course, internal variability will also be an important factor.

In the long-range, even as there will remain a lot of variability in season-to-season snowfall, average snowfall will very likely decline as winters continue to warm. The winters in the lower Middle Atlantic region provide some insight into what lies ahead.

Based on a regression equation that included Norfolk, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC (coefficient of determination: 0.836), it is likely that winters will become much less snowy, on average. The current seasonal average for New York City is 29.8”. With season-to-season variability, there will still be some snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent.

For New York City and Philadelphia, average snowfall for winters with mean temperatures of 37° or above and 40° or above were:

Winters with a Mean Temperature of 37.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 38.5°; Mean Snowfall: 17.5″ (n=27)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 39.0°; Mean Snowfall: 12.7″ (n=33)

For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 40.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 40.9°; Mean Snowfall: 10.3″ (n=5)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.2°; Mean Snowfall: 9.9″ (n=9)

Those numbers are broadly consistent with the results from the regression equation.

Below is the distribution of seasonal snowfall for winters that had mean temperatures of 37.0° or above:

 

If this data is representative, New York City's 30-year average snowfall (Central Park) could decline to about 20" by the mid-2030s. There will still be some big years. Winter 2009-10 in Baltimore and Washington, DC, provides an example of such an outcome in a warmer climate.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We are above normal for the first half if not more this month. The ens look mild to the very end of their runs so far 

Not a surprise to see the EPS weeklies shift much warmer as they are starting to reflect the MJO 7 slowdown. 
 

[lee59]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A climate link might be found, at least to some extent, if an attribution study finds that, for example, a marine heatwave altered the hemispheric pattern. AGW has led to a pronounced increase in the frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. Of course, internal variability will also be an important factor.

In the long-range, even as there will remain a lot of variability in season-to-season snowfall, average snowfall will very likely decline as winters continue to warm. The winters in the lower Middle Atlantic region provide some insight into what lies ahead.

Based on a regression equation that included Norfolk, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC (coefficient of determination: 0.836), it is likely that winters will become much less snowy, on average. The current seasonal average for New York City is 29.8”. With season-to-season variability, there will still be some snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent.

For New York City and Philadelphia, average snowfall for winters with mean temperatures of 37° or above and 40° or above were:

Winters with a Mean Temperature of 37.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 38.5°; Mean Snowfall: 17.5″ (n=27)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 39.0°; Mean Snowfall: 12.7″ (n=33)

For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 40.0° or Above:
New York City: Mean Temperature: 40.9°; Mean Snowfall: 10.3″ (n=5)
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.2°; Mean Snowfall: 9.9″ (n=9)

Those numbers are broadly consistent with the results from the regression equation.

Below is the distribution of seasonal snowfall for winters that had mean temperatures of 37.0° or above:

 

If this data is representative, New York City's 30-year average snowfall (Central Park) could decline to about 20" by the mid-2030s. There will still be some big years. Winter 2009-10 in Baltimore and Washington, DC, provides an example of such an outcome in a warmer climate.

You make a good point but I wonder if the increase in precipitation could help mute the downfall in snow. The last 30 year period saw snowfall totals actually go up in NYC, not because of lower temperatures (temperatures actually went up) but the increase in precipitation. Eventually, of course, this will have less of an affect if temperatures keep rising.

[TheClimateChanger]

24 minutes ago, lee59 said:

You make a good point but I wonder if the increase in precipitation could help mute the downfall in snow. The last 30 year period saw snowfall totals actually go up in NYC, not because of lower temperatures (temperatures actually went up) but the increase in precipitation. Eventually, of course, this will have less of an affect if temperatures keep rising.

Doubtful. More and more precipitation is falling in forms other than snow for most of the continental U.S. Places like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are seeing greater than 25% less precipitation falling as snow in the cold season relative to the early-mid 1970s. So even with a small increase in precipitation over that interval, snowfall has decreased somewhat.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Here is change in snowfall over the same time frame by season. Looks good for northern Canada. Not so much elsewhere.

 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not a surprise to see the EPS weeklies shift much warmer as they are starting to reflect the MJO 7 slowdown. 
 

Uh ? Phase 7 isn't warm at all in December.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Deja vu?

To what ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We are above normal for the first half if not more this month. The ens look mild to the very end of their runs so far 

It's barely above normal 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Doubtful. More and more precipitation is falling in forms other than snow for most of the continental U.S. Places like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are seeing greater than 25% less precipitation falling as snow in the cold season relative to the early-mid 1970s. So even with a small increase in precipitation over that interval, snowfall has decreased somewhat.

 

I’m sure most of that is from the bonanza period 2001-2018. We get more big Nor’easters (or did in that period) that drop more precip as snow with the favorable tracks. We’ll see if we’re in a new climate period now where the West/Plains/NNE are favored. Not to repeat everything Bluewave has been mentioning but we’ve entered a much more Nina-like state. Since we’re in a strong Nino now, hopefully it can suppress the SE ridge enough to allow for those big offshore Nor’easter tracks again for a while, along with the STJ to bring the storms. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Phase 7 isn't warm at all in December.

You have to be careful using those CPC charts which take 3 month averages. The DJF composite often works better for us each month from December to February. The December general MJO 7 chart is warm for us in addition to the December El Niño composite. Plus there is a lag which can take up to a week after passing through 4-6. So the 7 pattern may take up to a week to show up after first entering 7. That’s why we can’t rush the MJO in the warm phases.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to be careful using those CPC charts which take 3 month averages. The DJF composite often works better for us each month from December to February. The December general MJO 7 chart is warm for us in addition to the December El Niño composite. Plus there is a lag which can take up to a week after passing through 4-6. So the 7 pattern may take up to a week to show up after first entering 7. That’s why we can’t rush the MJO in the warm phases.

 

 

 

MJO is flying through .Nothng is getting hung up .

[Allsnow]

@MJO812 in the denial phase 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to be careful using those CPC charts which take 3 month averages. The DJF composite often works better for us each month from December to February. The December general MJO 7 chart is warm for us in addition to the December El Niño composite. Plus there is a lag which can take up to a week after passing through 4-6. So the 7 pattern may take up to a week to show up after first entering 7. That’s why we can’t rush the MJO in the warm phases.

 

 

 

P7 in Nino December is exactly what the ensembles are showing for mid month 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

MJO is flying through .Nothng is getting hung up .

That last VP frame still shows the MJO forcing the MJO 6 region as the RMMs are chasing convection. 
 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

P7 in Nino December is exactly what the ensembles are showing for mid month 

Do you have the link to those higher res charts?