MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed that the plots are correcting slowely, however wouldn't we want this progression since anything before the 20th is generally a bonus? I think back to the solidly above average snowfall winter of 2000/2001, with our first snowfall occuring December 30th. This IMO is a typical above average snowfall progression, not 96/96 or 02/03 where our first snowfall was November. Those years are RARE and only occured twice from 1970 through now. December isn't a winter month anymore . I think we average more in March now than December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: The RIMMS have had a sub 1 SD look to it from a week ago. The speed is the same There a 4 day trough in the middle where some may snow next week like I stated above. Then it's a low amp pass That said they are in 7 before the 20th , Not January . Who is seeing snow next week? NNE? They can snow in most patterns even with being above normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ok is this your prediction? Late January or February for our first snowstorm? You quote others, so now it's your turn to stick your neck out. Yes. Two week window end of January into February… then it’s over as we can’t shake the lingering nina issue s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Who is seeing snow next week? NNE? They can snow in most patterns even with being above normal Interior areas of NY and New England . It's about timing. There will be enough cold air for everyone to at least see some flakes if the track is right. I favor interior areas of NY, interior SNE and New England if there is a phase. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Yes. Two week window end of January into February… then it’s over as we can’t shake the lingering nina issue s Seems like its Allsnow vs the world. Let's see who is right . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Interior areas of NY and New England . It's about timing. There will be enough cold air for everyone to at least see some flakes if the track is right. I favor interior areas of NY, interior SNE and New England if there is a phase. On this track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yes. Two week window end of January into February… then it’s over as we can’t shake the lingering nina issue s Ok noted and saved. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 12 hours ago, bluewave said: The first hint something unusual was going on was when NYC tied the all-time lowest August temperature at the end of the month of 50°. Several NW suburbs actually dropped into the upper 30s on August 31st. This was followed up by 2nd lowest October temperature of 29° in NYC. The locally colder spots were able to dip below 20. The historic cold continued with widespread single digits on December 3rd.This was the 2nd earliest single digits on record in NYC. So nothing like the climate of the early 2020s. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1986 50 0 - 1982 50 0 - 1976 50 0 - 1965 50 0 - 1885 50 0 Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37 CT DANBURY COOP 38 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 NY CARMEL COOP 39 CT WESTBROOK COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1936 28 0 2 1976 29 0 - 1925 29 0 - 1887 29 0 - 1879 29 0 Monthly Data for October 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 16 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 17 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 18 Data for December 3, 1976 through December 3, 1976Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 1 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 2 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 3 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 3 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 4 CT DANBURY COOP 4 NY CARMEL COOP 5 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 5 CT GROTON COOP 5 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 5 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 7 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 7 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 7 NY SUFFERN COOP 7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8 NY SCARSDALE COOP 8 CT WESTBROOK COOP 8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 8 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 9 I remember it turning quite cool for a day or so right after Hurricane Belle went by in early August. Except for the sun angle it felt like mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: On this track? 90 hours is tomorrow? I guess we haven't learned from past winters where models can't get storms right a few days out. We aren't even sure yet if we are dealing with one or two waves. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ok noted and saved. Same here 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 there’s one of our patented two day cold snaps next week with a storm approaching… anyone dismissing the chance of our first snow 8 days out is ridiculous. I’ve seen guys get more excited over a plot on a chart 13 days out. Track this a bit The late January early February, one shot guys haven’t been paying attention this fall. This is not a normal or typical El Niño thus far. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: there’s one of our patented two day cold snaps next week with a storm approaching… anyone dismissing the chance of our first snow 8 days out is ridiculous. I’ve seen guys get more excited over a plot on a chart 13 days out. Track this a bit The late January early February, one shot guys haven’t been paying attention this fall. This is not a normal or typical El Niño thus far. Right? How many freezes have you had? We are coming off almost a full week now with night freezes up here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: On this track? Wrong storm you are posting Like I said , there might be 2 waves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: there’s one of our patented two day cold snaps next week with a storm approaching… anyone dismissing the chance of our first snow 8 days out is ridiculous. I’ve seen guys get more excited over a plot on a chart 13 days out. Track this a bit The late January early February, one shot guys haven’t been paying attention this fall. This is not a normal or typical El Niño thus far. Bingo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wrong storm you are posting Like I said , there might be 2 waves. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good luck hey, you may be very right. But don’t you think this bears tracking? Certainly must interest you, right? No way it could be dismissed eight days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good luck What's wrong with those temps especially Interior areas ? We are still talking about 156 hours here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is all connected of course. Models always bias MJO waves to dissipate too quickly. Moving through 7-8-1-2 from mid-December to early January with the cold air on our side of the globe and a very weak strat PV is an enticing combination. And throw in a Nino STJ. From MA forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The trof N of the Hawaiian Islands is a nice feature that had been lacking in recent years. Hints of an Aleutian low showing up. Also MA forum, and this is very important as we have had a static ridge here for years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Also MA forum, and this is very important as we have had a static ridge here for years! Possibly exciting times ahead with the strong stj. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Possibly exciting times ahead with the strong stj. There should be no shortage of storms this winter. Just have to hope there's a decent cold air supply at times... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: The RIMMS have had a sub 1 SD look to it from a week ago. The speed is the same There a 4 day trough in the middle where some may snow next week like I stated above. Then it's a low amp pass That said they are in 7 before the 20th , Not January . The RMM charts aren’t telling the whole story. The actual forcing in the 4-7 regions is going to be very robust. This is a warmer than average forcing signal through at least December 20th or 25th. This is why the models keep correcting warmer the closer in time we get. My early guess is that this means another close to 40° or warmer December for NYC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 i remember when we got snow in december from less than ideal patterns 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: There should be no shortage of storms this winter. Just have to hope there's a decent cold air supply at times... Yep hopefully good blocking at some point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i remember when we got snow in december from less than ideal patterns Yup, we are in that type of pattern, may take a few years to get back there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Winter's going to be tough if we get alot of MJO 4-5-6 again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 the MJO is going around the horn. it'll take until mid-month to get back into 7-8-1, but all ENS and the CFS get it there. should open up a more favorable period around the third or fourth week of the month as many have been saying. this is likely a small detour... I don't see a reason why forcing would remain in that area, as ENSO becomes more of a factor and promotes subsidence over the MC SPV weakening also does warm us up here, too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: Winter's going to be tough if we get alot of MJO 4-5-6 again.... highly doubt. there will be spells, though. same as when we get temporary spells of 7 and 8 in a Nina. happened in Jan 2022 when we got that blizzard at the end of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i remember when we got snow in december from less than ideal patterns 12/84 and 12/90 have to be by far the best examples ever, maybe 12/24/98 too. They all mostly occurred in the final week though. I cannot really recall a good snow in a bad pattern earlier in the month though I'd rate both the 2003 events as occurring in semi mediocre setups, just timed well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The RMM charts aren’t telling the whole story. The actual forcing in the 4-7 regions is going to be very robust. This is a warmer than average forcing signal through at least December 20th or 25th. This is why the models keep correcting warmer the closer in time we get. My early guess is that this means another close to 40° or warmer December for NYC. I am too lazy to dig that far but isn't phase 7 in Dec during Ninos quite a bit better than it is in neutral or Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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