December 2023

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is there a number as in index to ascribe its severity though (like a winter severity index?) and where does 1917-1918 rank on the list (I thought that was one of our most severe winters) as well as 1933-34?

 

In terms of cold, Winter 1917-18 ranks first (2.5 sigma below the historic mean). Winter 1880-81 ranks second (2.2 sigma). Winter 1917-18 only had slightly above normal snowfall, which brought its overall ranking to 9th on a standardized winter temperature-seasonal snowfall basis.

[Roger Smith]

Okay, I've done a bit of work on winter severity index. The index is designed to score zero to 100 although it could go higher than 100. As snow is probably about 2/3 of the contribution to a winter's perceived severity, the temperature index is designed to run from 0 to 40, and the snowfall index from 0 to 80. 

Temperature index is derived from D-J-F  mean (in C deg), with 4.0 C being zero, and every rounded 0.2 C below that level being worth one point. The coldest winter (1917-18) scored 40, second coldest 1880-1881 and 1976-77 scored 35. Four winters scored zero. For snowfall the index value is the number of total inches, over the season, rounded to nearest integer. This part of the severity index scored from 2 (last winter) to 77 (1995-96).

I flagged * cases where more than 1/3 of winter snowfall came after meteorological winter ended, but this qualifier means little in terms of perception since people expect snow to fall into early spring anyway. The winter moving furthest up the severity index on basis of its march-april snowfalls was probably 1895-1896 which had only 29 index points at end of Feb (rank t124) and ended up with 63 to rank t37. (of 155 winters)

The index values are shown both in chronological order and in rank order. Ties for rank order are listed in their chronological order. 

One could probably tinker with this method and improve it, for example, the zero temp index for 2015-16 could be raised to 2 or even 5 because of a period of below normal temps in Feb, that was not matched in equally futile winters by average alone. 

Outliers include 1948-1949, a relatively mild winter with a large snowfall total (most of it in Dec 1948), and several cold dry winters like 1962-63 which may be recalled as more severe simply because of persistent cold.

It has not been too bad a run since 1992. The past 31 winters include ranks 1, 6, t9, t11, t16, t16, t24, 28, t45, t45, t53 _ eleven of 31 were in top sixty. Of course the other end of the table is well represented also, in a similar range we find ranks 155, 154, 152, 151, 150, 147, 146, t138, t133, t133, t124, t119, t110, t107, t107, t96, for a total of 16 of 31. Only four winters could be considered near average in winter severity (in past 31).

 

Winter Severity Index (1869 to 2023)

 

Winter _______DJF (C) _snow" _ Index values

1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____30 _ 60 __ 90

1873-1874 ____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____32 _ 56 __ 88

1875-1876 ____ 1.17 __ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1876-1877 ____-1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 _____ 16 __ 8 __ 24

1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 

1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __71

1881-1882 ____ 1.27 __ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __74

1883-1884 ____-1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __68

1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __64

1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

1892-1893 ____-2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

1894-1895 ____-1.18 _ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____ 9 _ 20 __ 29

1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

1910-1911 ____-0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

1911-1912 ____-1.16 _ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63

1914-1915 _____0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

1915-1916 ____-0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

1917-1918 ____-3.90 _ 34.5 ____40 _ 35 __ 75

1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 __ 4 ___ 13* (10)

1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____35 _ 48 __ 83

1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 _____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____28 _ 60 __ 88

1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____23 _ 32 __ 55

1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____22 _ 22 __ 44

1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30

1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

1930-1931 ____ 0.41 __ 11.6 ____ 18 _ 12 __ 30

1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 __ 5 ___ 5

1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _  15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

1956-1957 ____ 1.18 __ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

1957-1958 ____-0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

1960-1961 ____-1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

1961-1962 ____-0.18 _ 18.1 _____ 21 _ 18 __ 39

1962-1963 ____-2.03 _ 16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35

1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 __ 3 __ 18

1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23

1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 _____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 _____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 10 *(5)

1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 __ 4 ___ 4

2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 __ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____23 _ 57 __ 80

2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 _____ 6 __ 5 __ 11

2020-2021 ____ 1.16 _ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 ____ 0 ___ 2 __ 2

______________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, but soon after end of "winter" and in 1981 extra snow fell just about as soon as "winter" ended, so these qualifiers are not all of equal significance, in terms of later addition to winter severity. And it should be kept in mind, winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. I noted the situation for 2011-12 (half of snowfall total fell in Oct) but I didn't look for any cases where a snowy Nov distorted the picture, figuring that a heavy Nov snowfall probably came with cold that was not part of the indexed cold and perhaps that was offset by Feb being war in some cases.

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature estimate was -1.2 C) 

 

Winter Severity in Order

 

Rank _ Winter _____ Temp _ Snow ____ Points __ TOTAL

 

_01 __ 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

_02 __ 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

_03 __ 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____ 30 _ 60 __ 90

_04t__ 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____ 32 _ 56 __ 88

_04t__ 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____ 28 _ 60 __ 88

_06 __ 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

_07t__ 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____ 35 _ 48 __ 83

_07t__ 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

_09t__ 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

_09t__ 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

_11t__ 1892-1893 ____ -2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

_11t __ 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

_11t__ 1960-1961 ____ -1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

_11t__ 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____ 23 _ 57 __ 80

_15 __ 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

_16t__ 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

_16t__ 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____ 27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

_18 __ 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

_19t__ 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

_19t__ 1917-1918 ____ -3.90 _ 34.5 ____ 40 _ 35 __ 75

_21t__ 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __ 74 

_21t__ 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

_23 __ 1915-1916 ____ -0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

_24t__ 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __ 71

_24t__ 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

_24t__ 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

_27 __ 1883-1884 ____ -1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __ 68

_28 __ 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

_29t__ 1876-1877 ____ -1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

_29t__ 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

_29t__ 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

_29t__ 1957-1958 ____ -0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

_29t__ 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

_34 __ 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

_35t__ 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64

_35t__ 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __ 64 

_37t__ 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

_37t__ 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63* (42)

_39t__ 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

_39t__ 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

_41t__ 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

_41t__ 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

_43t__ 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

_43t__ 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

_45t__ 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

_45t__ 1911-1912 ____ -1.16 __ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

_45t__ 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

_45t__ 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

_45t__ 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

_50t__ 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____ 23 _ 32 __ 55

_50t__ 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

_52 __ 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

_53t__ 1894-1895 ____-1.18 __ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

_53t__ 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

_53t__ 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 __ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

_56t__ 1873-1874 _____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

_56t__ 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

_56t__ 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

_56t__ 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

_60t__ 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

_60t__ 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

_60t__ 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

_60t__ 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

_60t__ 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

_65t__ 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

_65t__ 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

_65t__ 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

_68 __ 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

_69 __ 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

_70t__ 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

_70t__ 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

_70t__ 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

_70t__ 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

_70t__ 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

_75t__ 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

_75t__ 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

_77t__ 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 _ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

_77t__ 1914-1915 ____ 0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

_77t__ 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

_77t__ 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

_81t__ 1910-1911 ____ -0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

_81t__ 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____ 22 _ 22 __ 44

_81t__ 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

_84t__ 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

_84t__ 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

_86t__ 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

_86t__ 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

_88t__ 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

_91t__ 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

_91t__ 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

_91t__ 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

_91t__ 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

_95 __ 1961-1962 ____ -0.18 _ 18.1 ____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 

_96t__ 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

_96t__ 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

_98t__ 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

_98t__ 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

100t__ 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

100t__ 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 _ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

100t__ 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

103t__ 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 

103t__ 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

107t__ 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

107t__ 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

109 __ 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

110t__ 1875-1876 ____  1.17 _ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 1920-1921 ____  1.14 _ 18.6 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

113t__ 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

113t__ 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

115t__ 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

115t__ 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

115t__ 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

115t__ 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

119t__ 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

119t__ 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 

119t__ 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 _ 11.6 ____ 18 __12 __ 30

119t__ 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

119t__ 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

124t__ 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____9 _ 20 __ 29

124t__ 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

124t__ 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

124t__ 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

128t__ 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

128t__ 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

130t__ 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

130t__ 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

132 __ 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

133t__ 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

133t__ 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

133t__ 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

136t__ 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 ____ 16 ___ 8 __ 24

136t__ 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 ____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

138t__ 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

138t__ 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

138t__ 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 

138t__ 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

138t__ 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 ____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

143t__ 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

143t__ 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

143t__ 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

146 __ 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

147 __ 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

148 __ 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 ___3 __ 18

149 __ 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 ___ 4 __ 13* (10)

150 __ 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 ____ 6 ___ 5 __ 11

151 __ 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 ___ 6 __ 10 *(5)

152 __ 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 ___ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

153 __ 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5

154 __ 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 ___ 4 ___ 4

155 __ 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 _____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2

_____________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, so while not quite half the total, a figure is shown in brackets also. 1870 was similar, almost alf its snow points came in mar-apr. ... winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. 

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature est was -1.2 C) 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Okay, I've done a bit of work on winter severity index. The index is designed to score zero to 100 although it could go higher than 100. As snow is probably about 2/3 of the contribution to a winter's perceived severity, the temperature index is designed to run from 0 to 40, and the snowfall index from 0 to 80. 

Temperature index is derived from D-J-F  mean (in C deg), with 4.0 C being zero, and every rounded 0.2 C below that level being worth one point. The coldest winter (1917-18) scored 40, second coldest 1880-1881 and 1976-77 scored 35. Four winters scored zero. For snowfall the index value is the number of total inches, over the season, rounded to nearest integer. This part of the severity index scored from 2 (last winter) to 77 (1995-96).

I flagged * cases where more than 1/3 of winter snowfall came after meteorological winter ended, but this qualifier means little in terms of perception since people expect snow to fall into early spring anyway. The winter moving furthest up the severity index on basis of its march-april snowfalls was probably 1895-1896 which had only 29 index points at end of Feb (rank t124) and ended up with 63 to rank t37. (of 155 winters)

The index values are shown both in chronological order and in rank order. Ties for rank order are listed in their chronological order. 

One could probably tinker with this method and improve it, for example, the zero temp index for 2015-16 could be raised to 2 or even 5 because of a period of below normal temps in Feb, that was not matched in equally futile winters by average alone. 

Outliers include 1948-1949, a relatively mild winter with a large snowfall total (most of it in Dec 1948), and several cold dry winters like 1962-63 which may be recalled as more severe simply because of persistent cold.

It has not been too bad a run since 1992. The past 31 winters include ranks 1, 6, t9, t11, t16, t16, t24, 28, t45, t45, t53 _ eleven of 31 were in top sixty. Of course the other end of the table is well represented also, in a similar range we find ranks 155, 154, 152, 151, 150, 147, 146, t138, t133, t133, t124, t119, t110, t107, t107, t96, for a total of 16 of 31. Only four winters could be considered near average in winter severity (in past 31).

 

Winter Severity Index (1869 to 2023)

 

Winter _______DJF (C) _snow" _ Index values

1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____30 _ 60 __ 90

1873-1874 ____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____32 _ 56 __ 88

1875-1876 ____ 1.17 __ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1876-1877 ____-1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 _____ 16 __ 8 __ 24

1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 

1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __71

1881-1882 ____ 1.27 __ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __74

1883-1884 ____-1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __68

1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __64

1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

1892-1893 ____-2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

1894-1895 ____-1.18 _ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____ 9 _ 20 __ 29

1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

1910-1911 ____-0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

1911-1912 ____-1.16 _ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63

1914-1915 _____0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

1915-1916 ____-0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

1917-1918 ____-3.90 _ 34.5 ____40 _ 35 __ 75

1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 __ 4 ___ 13* (10)

1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____35 _ 48 __ 83

1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 _____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____28 _ 60 __ 88

1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____23 _ 32 __ 55

1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____22 _ 22 __ 44

1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30

1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

1930-1931 ____ 0.41 __ 11.6 ____ 18 _ 12 __ 30

1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 __ 5 ___ 5

1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _  15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

1956-1957 ____ 1.18 __ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

1957-1958 ____-0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

1960-1961 ____-1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

1961-1962 ____-0.18 _ 18.1 _____ 21 _ 18 __ 39

1962-1963 ____-2.03 _ 16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35

1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 __ 3 __ 18

1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23

1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 _____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 _____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 10 *(5)

1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 __ 4 ___ 4

2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 __ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____23 _ 57 __ 80

2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 _____ 6 __ 5 __ 11

2020-2021 ____ 1.16 _ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 ____ 0 ___ 2 __ 2

______________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, but soon after end of "winter" and in 1981 extra snow fell just about as soon as "winter" ended, so these qualifiers are not all of equal significance, in terms of later addition to winter severity. And it should be kept in mind, winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. I noted the situation for 2011-12 (half of snowfall total fell in Oct) but I didn't look for any cases where a snowy Nov distorted the picture, figuring that a heavy Nov snowfall probably came with cold that was not part of the indexed cold and perhaps that was offset by Feb being war in some cases.

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature estimate was -1.2 C) 

 

Winter Severity in Order

 

Rank _ Winter _____ Temp _ Snow ____ Points __ TOTAL

 

_01 __ 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101

_02 __ 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93

_03 __ 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____ 30 _ 60 __ 90

_04t__ 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____ 32 _ 56 __ 88

_04t__ 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____ 28 _ 60 __ 88

_06 __ 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85

_07t__ 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____ 35 _ 48 __ 83

_07t__ 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83

_09t__ 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81

_09t__ 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81

_11t__ 1892-1893 ____ -2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80

_11t __ 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80

_11t__ 1960-1961 ____ -1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80

_11t__ 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____ 23 _ 57 __ 80

_15 __ 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79

_16t__ 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77

_16t__ 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____ 27 _ 50 __ 77* (58)

_18 __ 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54)

_19t__ 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75

_19t__ 1917-1918 ____ -3.90 _ 34.5 ____ 40 _ 35 __ 75

_21t__ 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __ 74 

_21t__ 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74

_23 __ 1915-1916 ____ -0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43)

_24t__ 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __ 71

_24t__ 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54)

_24t__ 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71

_27 __ 1883-1884 ____ -1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __ 68

_28 __ 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67

_29t__ 1876-1877 ____ -1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66

_29t__ 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66

_29t__ 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66

_29t__ 1957-1958 ____ -0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49)

_29t__ 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66

_34 __ 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65

_35t__ 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64

_35t__ 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __ 64 

_37t__ 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29)

_37t__ 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63* (42)

_39t__ 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41)

_39t__ 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60

_41t__ 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59

_41t__ 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59

_43t__ 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57

_43t__ 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57

_45t__ 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56

_45t__ 1911-1912 ____ -1.16 __ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56

_45t__ 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56

_45t__ 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56

_45t__ 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39)

_50t__ 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____ 23 _ 32 __ 55

_50t__ 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55

_52 __ 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54

_53t__ 1894-1895 ____-1.18 __ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53

_53t__ 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53

_53t__ 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 __ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53

_56t__ 1873-1874 _____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52

_56t__ 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52

_56t__ 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52

_56t__ 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52

_60t__ 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51

_60t__ 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51

_60t__ 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51

_60t__ 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32)

_60t__ 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51

_65t__ 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50

_65t__ 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50

_65t__ 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50

_68 __ 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39)

_69 __ 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48

_70t__ 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47

_70t__ 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47

_70t__ 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 

_70t__ 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47

_70t__ 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39)

_75t__ 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46

_75t__ 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46

_77t__ 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 _ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45

_77t__ 1914-1915 ____ 0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25)

_77t__ 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45

_77t__ 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45

_81t__ 1910-1911 ____ -0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44

_81t__ 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____ 22 _ 22 __ 44

_81t__ 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31)

_84t__ 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43**

_84t__ 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31)

_86t__ 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33)

_86t__ 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30)

_88t__ 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29)

_88t__ 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41

_91t__ 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40

_91t__ 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40

_91t__ 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40

_91t__ 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40

_95 __ 1961-1962 ____ -0.18 _ 18.1 ____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 

_96t__ 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38

_96t__ 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38

_98t__ 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37

_98t__ 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37

100t__ 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23)

100t__ 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 _ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36

100t__ 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36

103t__ 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 

103t__ 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35

103t__ 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35

107t__ 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25)

107t__ 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25)

109 __ 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34

110t__ 1875-1876 ____  1.17 _ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 1920-1921 ____  1.14 _ 18.6 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33

110t__ 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33

113t__ 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25)

113t__ 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32

115t__ 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31

115t__ 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31

115t__ 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31

115t__ 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31

119t__ 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30

119t__ 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 

119t__ 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 _ 11.6 ____ 18 __12 __ 30

119t__ 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23)

119t__ 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30

124t__ 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____9 _ 20 __ 29

124t__ 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29

124t__ 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29

124t__ 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29

128t__ 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16)

128t__ 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28

130t__ 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19)

130t__ 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27

132 __ 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9)

133t__ 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25

133t__ 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19)

133t__ 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25

136t__ 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 ____ 16 ___ 8 __ 24

136t__ 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 ____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15)

138t__ 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23

138t__ 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23

138t__ 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 

138t__ 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23

138t__ 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 ____ 11 _ 12 __ 23

143t__ 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 

143t__ 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22

143t__ 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22

146 __ 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15)

147 __ 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19

148 __ 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 ___3 __ 18

149 __ 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 ___ 4 __ 13* (10)

150 __ 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 ____ 6 ___ 5 __ 11

151 __ 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 ___ 6 __ 10 *(5)

152 __ 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 ___ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct)

153 __ 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5

154 __ 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 ___ 4 ___ 4

155 __ 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 _____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2

_____________________________

* more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st.  In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, so while not quite half the total, a figure is shown in brackets also. 1870 was similar, almost alf its snow points came in mar-apr. ... winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. 

** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature est was -1.2 C) 

well we've had a nice run.... I can say it's been a privilege and an honor to experience so many top 10 and top 20 winters, and even the ones at the bottom were interesting in some way because they too were historic.

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Feels like April outside. Sun finally out and it's 46.  WTH 

[gravitylover]

This mornings fog is the densest in a long time. It's been ~300 foot visibility for a few hours now. This sux. 

[donsutherland1]

The MJO's current passage through Phase 1 during which the preliminary amplitude has reached as high as 2.028, is the strongest on record for Phase 1 for the last 10 days of December. Daily MJO data recordkeeping began in 1974.

[SACRUS]

45 off a low of 44.  Some clearing and sun (after 6 days.)

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 71 (1984)
NYC: 70 (1984)
LGA: 68 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1933)
*NYC:  -6 (1917)
LGA:  12 (2017)


Historical:

 

1830 - A very heavy snowstorm ushered in the "winter of the deep snow." The storm produced 30 inches of snow at Peoria IL and 36 inches at Kansas City MO. Cold and snow continued until the middle of February causing great suffering among pioneers. (David Ludlum)

 

1876:The Pacific Express train was crossing the Ashtabula River in Ohio when the bridge collapsed. The bridge collapsed at 7:28 PM, during a snowstorm that left two feet of snow and produced 40 mph winds. The only railcar not to fall into the icy river below was the first locomotive.

1894 - A severe freeze hit Florida destroying fruit and causing considerable damage to trees. (David Ludlum)

1954 - Fort Scott, KS, was buried under 26 inches of snow in 24 hours to establish a state record. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1984 - One hundred cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures. Kansas City, MO, experienced its warmest December day of record with a morning low of 60 degrees and an afternoon high of 71 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A storm off the Middle Atlantic Coast produced heavy snow in the Appalachians and the northeastern U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in southeastern Massachusetts. Cape Cod received thirteen inches of snow, and snow drifts three feet deep were reported around Chatham MA. Strong winds produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero in southwestern New England. In the western U.S., a Pacific coast storm produced heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with 24 inches reported at Mammoth Mountain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A cold front brought rain and snow to the northwestern U.S. The rainfall total of 2.70 inches at Astoria OR was a record for the date. High winds along the eastern slopes of the Northern Rockies gusted to 81 mph at Livingston MT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Snow and ice prevailed from the southwestern U.S. to the Great Lakes Region. Flagstaff, AZ, received nine inches of snow in just six hours. Bitter cold weather continued over Maine. Portland ME reported a record twenty-two straight days with highs 32 degrees or colder. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

LGA got close to its first 60/60 year.

 

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	58.7	0
2	2020	58.6	0
3	2012	58.5	0
-	2006	58.5	0
4	2023	58.4	3
5	2021	58.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2011	65.34	0
2	1983	60.84	0
3	1975	60.79	0
4	2023	59.65	3

[Stormlover74]

Crazy warmth. I remember there was snow on the ground during this torch

 

[WX-PA]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The MJO's current passage through Phase 1 during which the preliminary amplitude has reached as high as 2.028, is the strongest on record for Phase 1 for the last 10 days of December. Daily MJO data recordkeeping began in 1974.

And phase one is a cold phase for us..lol..so what does it really mean? Really can we say it's just a part of the equation..or maybe because of the strong nino it really doesn't matter?

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

And phase one is a cold phase for us..lol..so what does it really mean? Really can we say it's just a part of the equation..or maybe because of the strong nino it really doesn't matter?

Yes. It's one variable. It can be important, but other variables can more than offset it.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

And phase one is a cold phase for us..lol..so what does it really mean? Really can we say it's just a part of the equation..or maybe because of the strong nino it really doesn't matter?

The jet ext killed any response in the colder phases. Plus it’s not very strong. P1 Nino December actually looks like what week 1 of January is forecasted to be 

[donsutherland1]

In addition to ongoing record streaks without 1" or 2" daily snowfall in New York City, today will be Buffalo's record 307th consecutive day on which the temperature has not fallen into the teens.

The latest first occurrence of temperatures in the teens was January 3, 2022. That mark could be beaten this winter.

 

[Allsnow]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Crazy warmth. I remember there was snow on the ground during this torch

 

Wow. Didn’t think it got that warm back then in the winter 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Wow. Didn’t think it got that warm back then…

Then we dropped to -8 in January 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Then we dropped to -8 in January 

Cold dry? 

[Allsnow]

Legit feels like April this morning. Nice to finally see the sun 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Cold dry? 

A bit of snow but yeah 

[gravitylover]

Ooh ooh, the fog is lifting! I can see almost 3 blocks away now. 

[donsutherland1]

After days of overcast skies, bouts of fog, rain, mist, and drizzle, the sun finally returned today. 

[SACRUS]

Up to a 54 and sunny.

[psv88]

57. Helluva way to run a pattern change…

[psv88]

Hit 58, record for this date for my location going back 9 years 

[tmagan]

Central Park just set the record for most calendar days with a maximum temperature of at least fifty degrees with 295.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

No major change in sight.

WX/PT

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

No major change in sight.

WX/PT

Ugly, just ugly.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's second warmest December on record is concluding. Blossoms can be found in parts of the New York Botanical Garden. 

[donsutherland1]

Baltimore saw its record stretch without daily snowfall of 1" or more reach 700 days today. Philadelphia will reach 700 days tomorrow.

The unseasonably mild weather will likely continue through the remainder of December, but readings will be somewhat cooler than they were today.

The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one, so snowfall prospects will remain limited. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur while the pattern becomes wetter.

There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was +1.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.852 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Atlantic blocking is continuing to redevelop.

On December 27 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.028 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.837 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (5.4° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 2nd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

 

[bluewave]

NYC had fewer freezing or lower days this year than Raleigh, NC.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	2023	28	3
2	2012	38	0
3	1998	39	0
4	2020	41	0
5	1990	47	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Raleigh Area, NC (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	2023	35	3
2	1990	39	0
3	2012	44	0
4	2020	48	0
5	1994	50	0
-	1946	50	0