December 2023

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 

when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 

so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

Snow pack? Most would be lucky to see a snowstorm 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Snow pack? Most would be lucky to see a snowstorm 

Let's get an inch of snow before worrying about sun angle and snowpack

[bluewave]

A very Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to everyone. This had to be the thickest fog that I have ever driven in during Christmas. It was an interesting ride home over the hills here in Southern CT. I am more accustomed to driving in dense fog on flat surfaces like the Ocean Parkway back on Long Island. But the up and down on hills in the dense fog was pretty wild.   

[the_other_guy]

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

 

[wdrag]

Monitoring for a headline thread of flooding again for Wed-Thu 27-28, maybe topping off I84 with some snow late Friday-Sat. 

Still thinking 0.75-2" entire area by the time it quits for a while late Thursday.  Of interest to me is potential for 4+" of rain portions of western NC by Wednesday morning which may translate newd.  Probably not as serious as a week ago but am pretty sure a few rivers including a couple mainstems in NJ will go back into minor flood, if not moderate flood  This event, seems to favor interior NJ/NY/e PA and along and west of I95.  Small wet snow accumulation late Friday-early Sat for MA/NCT? 

All needing further consideration before wasting anyones time. 

Wish there were more wintry to focus upon. I guess patience is my best approach. 

[hudsonvalley21]

35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Monitoring for a headline thread of flooding again for Wed-Thu 27-28, maybe topping off I84 with some snow late Friday-Sat. 

Still thinking 0.75-2" entire area by the time it quits for a while late Thursday.  Of interest to me is potential for 4+" of rain portions of western NC by Wednesday morning which may translate newd.  Probably not as serious as a week ago but am pretty sure a few rivers including a couple mainstems in NJ will go back into minor flood, if not moderate flood  This event, seems to favor interior NJ/NY/e PA and along and west of I95.  Small wet snow accumulation late Friday-early Sat for MA/NCT? 

All needing further consideration before wasting anyones time. 

Wish there were more wintry to focus upon. I guess patience is my best approach. 

Thanks for the heads up Walt, it won’t take much to raise the water levels. We’ll see what the next few runs show. Merry Christmas to you and yours.

 

 

[Cfa]

Just ventured south up and over Bald Hill (~330ft ASL), relying partially on memory as its pitch black, in the densest fog of I’ve ever seen (no exaggeration). Immediate changeover at/after the summit to perfectly clear conditions. I’d only ever seen that happen on planes, not at ground level.

No lights on that stretch of road, everyone heading north will be plunged into instant darkness. I took a different way heading back.

Looks and feels more like Halloween than Christmas, especially with the full moon somewhat visible earlier when the fog was thinner, very haunted atmosphere out there.

[donsutherland1]

Evening thoughts:  Pattern change still on track:

A storm will bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the storm cooler air will begin to move into the region. The last two days of December should see readings that are close to normal. Nevertheless, the region will have experienced an exceptionally warm December (NYC remains on a trajectory that could see it wind up with its 3rd warmest December on record).

The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal readings with Atlantic blocking having redeveloped. Severe cold is unlikely. The ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies are also in good agreement. However, that week could wind up drier than normal leading to opportunities for only smaller snowfall amounts. Historic experience following cases where the AO reached +3.000 or above during December 15-25 have typically seen only light snow events through January 10th. January 2014 when 6.4" of snow fell in NYC is an exception.

The second week of January could see the cold begin to retreat and the trough's possible redevelopment in the West. The pattern could also grow wetter. The region could have its best opportunity for widespread snowfall so far this winter before the cold air departs. However, that timeframe is too far out for specifics.

Beyond that, the evolution of the MJO and the possible development of a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) will be among the important factors that drive the pattern evolution. MJO forecasts at that range have almost no skill. Disagreements also exist among the guidance concerning the MJO.

Should the SSWE occur, which appears more likely than not, the polar vortex could split. Should the largest piece migrate to Eurasia, Eurasia would see the largest area of cold. However, even a smaller piece could allow North America to experience cold of a magnitude that has not yet occurred this winter. Whether that piece would dig into the West or move into eastern North America is uncertain from this far out. The downstream effects of any SSWE could align well with peak ENSO climatalogy for cold and snow.

[SRRTA22]

Fog is nearly non existent here

[wdrag]

Not posting a thread yet, for one primary reason... not sure yet if I want to do this as a 24 or 72 hour event, first 24 hours most important but the secondary rainfall Thu-Fri might be the straw that pushes minor flood for many streams in NNJ-e PA. For now I expect 1-3" of rain Wed-Fri, with at least several rivers going minor or possibly moderate e PA/NNJ into se NYS.  Slow moving upper Low.

Turns cold enough of possible back side ice or snow parts of the I84 corridor Friday afternoon-early Sat. 

Just not enough model cues to push a routine into a worthy thread. This is not the storm of 9 days ago.

 

adding on 658AM.  Wii look again this evening as time allows, but pretty sure will thread this evening. HRRR-SPC HREF and NWS Flood Watch combo of considerations for the what I think is a 60-70% chc of starting the water related flood potential thread. 

[SACRUS]

 

45 off a low of 43 on this Boxing Day 13 year anniversary of the Blizzard of 2010.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Another inch or two of rain - keeping it muddy this chirstmas season

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1982)
NYC: 63 (1982)
LGA: 62 (1982)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1980)
NYC: 3 (1914)
LGA: 5 (1980)

Historical:

 

1776 - George Washington crossed the ice clogged Delaware River. He marched on Trenton in the midst of snow and sleet thus surprising and capturing many of the British garrison. (David Ludlum)

1947 - New York City received a record 26.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, with as much as 32 inches reported in the suburbs. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill, and snow removal cost eight million dollars. Thirty thousand persons were called upon to remove the 100 million tons of snow. The storm claimed 27 lives. (26th-27th) (David Ludlum)

1983 - Miami, FL, established a December record with a morning low of 33 degrees. Just three days earlier, and again three days later, record warm temperatures were reported in Florida, with daytime highs in the 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Freezing rain plagued parts of the south central U.S., from northwest Texas to southwestern Missouri. Southwestern Missouri was turned into a huge skating rink as roads became sheets of ice. Damage to tree limbs and power lines compared to a hundred tornadoes, and half of the city of Springfield was left without electricity for 24 hours. Snow, sleet and ice covered the northwest two thirds of Oklahoma. 75,000 homes were left without electricity as ice accumulated one to two inches in a 40-mile band from Duncan to Norman to Tulsa to Miami. 25,000 of those homes were still without power a week later. The storm claimed the lives of seven persons. (24th-27th) (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure produced heavy snow from North Dakota to western sections of the Great Lakes Region, with up to fourteen inches reported in the Chicago area. Cold arctic air hovered over the Plateau Region. Temperatures in the Big Smokey Valley of Nevada plunged to 31 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong northerly winds behind an arctic cold front produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region and dangerous wind chill temperatures in the northeastern U.S. Wind chill readings as cold as 40 degrees below zero were reported in New York State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003 - A major snow storm in Utah caused several fatalities due to avalanches. As much as 2 ft of snow fell in parts of the state, particularly south of Salt Lake City. Three people that were seen snowboarding in the Aspen Grove recreational area have been presumed dead, all others managed to escape or be rescued (Reuters).

[SACRUS]

 

Dec 2010 (Boxing Day) Blizzard

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Dec 2010 (Boxing Day) Blizzard

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

My favorite snowstorm of my adult life. Yes, I prefer it to Jan 16 for several reasons, some not weather related. 

Feels truly special in this period of warm, low snow Decembers. Especially given the Dec 09 event we’ve talked about a few times recently, having back to back Dec majors like that  

09-2015 was a very special period of winter weather / winter vibes for me. Coincided with a lot of major moments in my early adulthood (getting married, buying a house, etc). 

My wife and I were probably going to be moving up to NNJ within the next couple years (was looking near Sparta actually, I have friends in Montague & wife Hopatcong). We’ve developed a major passion for winter hiking and NNJ is just much better for that as well as being a better springboard to going north in the winter for hiking trips (went to Danbury last Feb, though it was hardly winter lol). Down the road I want to retire in New England (wife is onboard!), probably either Vermont or NH. 

I have family in Mass (Boston area) and my wife has family in and around Rochester, but we want to be away from the city life we both grew up in. Too many damn people here. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My favorite snowstorm of my adult life. Yes, I prefer it to Jan 16 for several reasons, some not weather related. 

Feels truly special in this period of warm, low snow Decembers. Especially given the Dec 09 event we’ve talked about a few times recently, having back to back Dec majors like that  

09-2015 was a very special period of winter weather / winter vibes for me. Coincided with a lot of major moments in my early adulthood (getting married, buying a house, etc). 

My wife and I were probably going to be moving up to NNJ within the next couple years (was looking near Sparta actually, I have friends in Montague & wife Hopatcong). We’ve developed a major passion for winter hiking and NNJ is just much better for that as well as being a better springboard to going north in the winter for hiking trips (went to Danbury last Feb, though it was hardly winter lol). Down the road I want to retire in New England (wife is onboard!), probably either Vermont or NH. 

I have family in Mass (Boston area) and my wife has family in and around Rochester, but we want to be away from the city life we both grew up in. Too many damn people here. 

Action Park was my favorite place to go during the summers in the 1980s. NW NJ is a beautiful area. I wish you the best of luck when you make your move. 

[forkyfork]

i'd rather it be clear and 25 instead of this constant 50s and gray nonsense 

[Stormlover74]

Models seem to be getting wetter as we get closer to tomorrow night and Thursday's rainfall

 

[SI Mailman]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Dec 2010 (Boxing Day) Blizzard

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

 

I was in the 30 inch jackpot for that one, still number one for me, well ahead of January 2016.  

[bluewave]

NYC currently in 2nd place for warmest December with highs forecast to reach 50° or warmer through Friday.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2023	44.1	6
-	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models seem to be getting wetter as we get closer to tomorrow night and Thursday's rainfall

 

It's more of a prolonged event now.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, suzook said:

It's more of a prolonged event now.

But the heavy stuff lasts around 12 hours

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Action Park was my favorite place to go during the summers in the 1980s. NW NJ is a beautiful area. I wish you the best of luck when you make your move. 

For what it’s worth, growing up on LI in the 80s with family up there, seemingly every time we had an agonizingly close snowstorm which was instead a cold rain storm, they would get plastered with snow, so often that it was the running joke.

[kdennis78]

When the rain is heavy what rates are we talking about here? I don't live near rivers or streams but I'm petrified about flooding in my yard or it getting in the house.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature topped out at 51° in New York City's Central Park and 50° in Philadelphia today despite mainly cloudy and misty conditions. This unseasonably mild weather is likely through the remainder of December.

Rain will arrive late tomorrow and tomorrow night. That rain will likely continue through much of Thursday before tapering off to showers Thursday night or Friday. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts is likely across the region.

A transition to a colder pattern lies ahead. Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur as the pattern becomes wetter.

There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.98°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.089 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Atlantic blocking is redeveloping.

On December 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.451 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.303 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.2° (5.1° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 2nd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

 

[Evie3]

Grew up on a dairy farm in Sussex county, near the former Monastery off of 202.  There was no 287 or 78, of course.  We sold our milk to the Ideal Dairy, which I think is still in business. I recall watching Green Acres as a kid and thinking it was about my parents LOL.  As a young child I recall a time in the early 1960s when Kennedy Airport (then Idlewild) was closed because of a bad snowstorm.  We had a 1 mile+ long driveway off of 202 and were snowed in for a long time - well over a week.  Thankfully we had a generator, fuel tanks and firewood but by the time someone came to plow us out we were running low on canned goods.  After that my mother (who grew up in Newark and was used to being able to walk around the corner to the store) started hoarding canned goods.  Even though we moved to the suburbs when I was 8 the canned goods thing continued, I don't think she ever really got over it....People find it hard to imagine that was New Jersey, but it was.  Who knows, it could happen again!  These things tend to be cyclical over long periods of time.

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

Grew up on a dairy farm in Sussex county, near the former Monastery off of 202.  There was no 287 or 78, of course.  We sold our milk to the Ideal Dairy, which I think is still in business. I recall watching Green Acres as a kid and thinking it was about my parents LOL.  As a young child I recall a time in the early 1960s when Kennedy Airport (then Idlewild) was closed because of a bad snowstorm.  We had a 1 mile+ long driveway off of 202 and were snowed in for a long time - well over a week.  Thankfully we had a generator, fuel tanks and firewood but by the time someone came to plow us out we were running low on canned goods.  After that my mother (who grew up in Newark and was used to being able to walk around the corner to the store) started hoarding canned goods.  Even though we moved to the suburbs when I was 8 the canned goods thing continued, I don't think she ever really got over it....People find it hard to imagine that was New Jersey, but it was.  Who knows, it could happen again!  These things tend to be cyclical over long periods of time.

A simpler place and time.  Something to be said for that.

[Volcanic Winter]

40 minutes ago, Evie3 said:

Grew up on a dairy farm in Sussex county, near the former Monastery off of 202.  There was no 287 or 78, of course.  We sold our milk to the Ideal Dairy, which I think is still in business. I recall watching Green Acres as a kid and thinking it was about my parents LOL.  As a young child I recall a time in the early 1960s when Kennedy Airport (then Idlewild) was closed because of a bad snowstorm.  We had a 1 mile+ long driveway off of 202 and were snowed in for a long time - well over a week.  Thankfully we had a generator, fuel tanks and firewood but by the time someone came to plow us out we were running low on canned goods.  After that my mother (who grew up in Newark and was used to being able to walk around the corner to the store) started hoarding canned goods.  Even though we moved to the suburbs when I was 8 the canned goods thing continued, I don't think she ever really got over it....People find it hard to imagine that was New Jersey, but it was.  Who knows, it could happen again!  These things tend to be cyclical over long periods of time.

Thanks for sharing. Nevermind average snow totals, I would expect that snow would’ve stuck around longer with lower average winter temps especially in the colder semi recent decades. That’s something that I don’t often see discussed, not that we didn’t always have warmups after storms, but I’d be willing to bet snow stuck around longer in NJ in the 60’s, for example. 

[wdrag]

I will begin a thread sometime between 8P and Mid for a widespread 1.25-3" rainfall event 1Pm Wed-1P Thursday, isolated 4" possible ne NJ/se NYS/s CT.  Just want to see a little more data. I'll add a couple graphics. Most of the rain in a 12 hour period 9P Wed-9A Thu.  This would result in a few small streams going into flood by Thursday afternoon, depending on location. 

Probably another 0.1-0.6" between 1P Thu and 7P Fri in periodic-areas of drizzle/rain. 

 

 

 

 

[psv88]

More fog!!!!!