December 2023

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Need a few more days of this though. We've seen things get pushed back far too often 

this has been moving forward and strengthening with time

[brooklynwx99]

this is a gorgeous look

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I don't think we're down. I think most are cautiously optimistic.  Way too soon to get excited though

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a gorgeous look

If we can get that split flow with a potent STJ wave rolling east into a big high pressure supplying at least decent cold and an overrunning surface, that's how we'd eventually get nailed with something in this Nino. We can already tell the storms will be there, it'll just be timing one or two with a cold enough couple of days. 

[donsutherland1]

Another shot of cold air is arriving to end the week. However, the cold will be far from severe. Tomorrow will be blustery and cold with highs ranging from the upper 30s in New York City to around 40° in Philadelphia.

No Arctic air is likely through the remainder of December. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January. Severe cold appears unlikely early in the transition. There is uncertainty concerning the timing and duration of the colder period that could develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -14.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.209 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Therefore, blocking will likely return in January, if historic experience is representative.

On December 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The December 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.988 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.2° (4.1° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 8th warmest December on record.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

[cleetussnow]

31 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

Theres no real cold on our side of the earth.  How that changes or when is unclear to me. I see the 300 hr maps and all but those are theoretical.  Nothing really convincing is developing. 

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +IOD is falling apart very rapidly now. As you said the waters in the eastern IO and around Indonesia are warming very quickly, which is going to promote more convection (MJO) there….convection always fires over the warmest SSTs

 

 

 

 

The IOD seasonal collapse is consistent with past years.  Even high amplitude IOD patterns collapse by the New Year almost without fail.

 

So, in time, the jet will retract and there will be a retrograding PNA area ridge setting up.  At that point with PV consolidation you'd hope that some form of wave breaking can perturb the PV and displace it towards this side of the pole for deeper into January to at least provide some chill to tap into and perhaps start building some snowpack in Canada in due time.

 

Until that source is resolved how I view these setups for snow: HP/cold will likely be overdone on modeling without a true snowpack build in the extended range.  So, generally, less is more when it'll come to coastals if/until this source airmass problem is resolved.  Deepening coastals will likely be primarily rain producers where overrunning events or even clippers have the better potential to deliver wintery results. 

 

 

 

[North and West]

One of the worst statements in the public lexicon to come out of the early part of the 2010s is  the phrase, “the science is settled”; and followed as of late the phrase “the science has evolved”. 
Absolute tripe. Why not state “here’s my theory, and here’s my defense of that theory”. This applies regardless, if the theory of AGW is accurate or not. 
Sorry, I couldn’t resist the professor’s commentary. And I know this is banter, but it needs to be said. 

100% agree. See what we went through with Covid.

AGW is pretty damn clear IMO, but the way you present a message matters as well. People don’t listen to others when they’re being condescended to.


.

[North and West]

I don't think we're down. I think most are cautiously optimistic.  Way too soon to get excited though

And been hurt before!


.

[MJO812]

DT on board with a big pattern change 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

The 20s in this climate are worth as much as the teens were in the 1970s. NYC just can’t get that cold anymore.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Theres no real cold on our side of the earth.  How that changes or when is unclear to me. I see the 300 hr maps and all but those are theoretical.  Nothing really convincing is developing. 

I agree. And it's not December 1st or 13th. If what many forecasts for an active and cold winter were going to pan out, it is time to begin to see some evidence of it consistently in the longer range. I do not. Tonight and tomorrow are cold, but over the weekend and into next week, the cold leaves. There is no prolonged cold and none in sight. Yes the New Years Eve holiday weekend might be cold but dry. In order to get snow you have to have the cold and the moisture and/or storm at the same time. 

WX/PT

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a gorgeous look

That’s a cutter pattern 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

and this warm wet cold dry is an extremely stable and persistent and very familiar pattern from the 80s.  I do think the change will be delayed, but not denied to something at least resembling winter, and that will happen on or after January 20th which is when it historically happens when winters start out mild.

[the_other_guy]

22F this morning. I imagine we drop another degree or two. that would make it one of the coldest nights of the season thus far.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

22F this morning. I imagine we drop another degree or two. that would make it one of the coldest nights of the season thus far.

Maybe it'll match late November, that's what I'm looking to see.  It hit 27 back then.

 

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning everyone,  Other than spotty icing I84 corridor Saturday night, am not excited enough to begin a thread for Dec 27-29.  Will monitor.  I can to start the January thread sometime tonight... when I get some home downtime.  Have a day.  

[Volcanic Winter]

22F, coldest of fall / winter so far here, finally. Still only just though, my min for November was 22.3. 

Edit: 21F now @ 6am. 

[the_other_guy]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/21/weather/us-winter-temperatures-climate-change/index.html

 

Article has some good nuggets imbedded with the fluff

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a gorgeous look

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

Very 1997ish so far.

[dWave]

Down to 25, coldest of the season. 2nd time below 30 this month, other was just barely.

[MJO812]

26 here

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Very 1997ish so far.

What's the difference between that and say, 1982-83 or 2015-16?  The latter was even warmer than this one, the main difference being the warmest anomalies this time around are in MN.

 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What's the difference between that and say, 1982-83 or 2015-16?  The latter was even warmer than this one, the main difference being the warmest anomalies this time around are in MN.

 

that’s correct. Minnesota is in the bull’s-eye now and in 2015 we were in the bull’s-eye.

I believe that blizzard in 2015-2016 that saved the season involved a lot of luck. I only say that because we really didn’t have any snow or any winter weather outside of that and a cold snap in February that lasted for a few days.

I wouldn’t look for something like that to happen again this year. It would be too coincidental. Ninos are often known for their one hit wonders. The question is how big that hit will be.

 

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

Mjo still moving along nicely 

Pattern change is moving up

( I'm going to get weenied again by snowman19)

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

that’s correct. Minnesota is in the bull’s-eye now and in 2015 we were in the bull’s-eye.

I believe that blizzard in 2015-2016 that saved the season involved a lot of luck. I only say that because we really didn’t have any snow or any winter weather outside of that and a cold snap in February that lasted for a few days.

I wouldn’t look for something like that to happen again this year. It would be too coincidental. Ninos are often known for their one hit wonders. The question is how big that hit will be.

 

I would agree about the luck aspect of it except that 2015-16 followed the 1982-83 script to a tee, it just happened a few weeks earlier.  In el ninos that strong a one hit wonder megablizzard might be all one should expect.  Also note that in all high end strong to super el ninos, the highest snowfall amounts in those snowstorms are usually around the south shore of Long Island into JFK, thus was the case in 1982-83, 2003 (PD2), and 2015-16.

And we had some near misses and 2 moderate hits in February too, if you'll remember, there was a snowstorm in February that caused a crane to fall in NYC and we had another moderate hit around the superbowl, something like 4-6 inches I think for each of those storms?  JFK ended up with over 40 inches of snow and parts of Long Island were at around 50 inches of snow.

Basically the eastern parts of the city were the western extent of the 4-6 inches in those February storms.

 

[Allsnow]

21 for the low. Coldest of the season so far 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

21 for the low. Coldest of the season so far 

And probably coldest for a while?