December 2023

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who knows what normal means anymore with our snowfall when NYC goes from the snowiest 5 year period to the 7th least snowiest 5 year period in the same 10 year period. 

 

Maximum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	209.4	2014-01-01 through 2018-12-31	0
2	205.2	1914-01-01 through 1918-12-31	2
3	204.9	1892-01-01 through 1896-12-31	3
4	204.3	1893-01-01 through 1897-12-31	3
5	202.1	1944-01-01 through 1948-12-31	0
6	199.4	2013-01-01 through 2017-12-31	0
7	197.0	1871-01-01 through 1875-12-31	0
8	193.4	1872-01-01 through 1876-12-31	0
9	193.0	2010-01-01 through 2014-12-31	0
10	191.3	1895-01-01 through 1899-12-31	3

 

Minimum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	66.1	1928-01-01 through 1932-12-31	0
2	66.2	1927-01-01 through 1931-12-31	0
3	71.9	1951-01-01 through 1955-12-31	0
4	72.2	1950-01-01 through 1954-12-31	0
5	74.8	1988-01-01 through 1992-12-31	0
6	77.0	1949-01-01 through 1953-12-31	0
7	77.7	2019-01-01 through 2023-12-31	12
9	79.4	1997-01-01 through 2001-12-31	1
10	81.8	1973-01-01 through 1977-12-31	0
-	77.7	1971-01-01 through 1975-12-31	0

 

this is why the whole idea of "averages" is unscientific, with both temperatures and precip (including snowfall), the climate is always changing so there is no such thing as average or normal.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks I'm headed up there in a couple of hours!  So a little less than an inch up my way?

1/2” give or take.

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Physics Course 102a    Much like the “Fire Triangle”, Snow, at least in the NYC metro area, requires three things; Cold Air, moisture, and luck.  I consider snow a miracle in these parts.  While we have seen certain anomalous episodes (especially recently) where a storm can seemingly “manufacture” cold air, you still need a cold air source nearby.  Pacific air to our north doesn’t quite cut it. 

Mentioned before, however I completely lost sight of the fact that strong El ninos typically flood the continent with PAC air, especially in December. I was so excited to get out of la Nina that I chose to ignore.

Looking at the MA forum there seems to be a lot of optimism for January, the H5 look has improved however given our current continental air mass it will take a bit of work. Seems to be the typical strong El nino progression so far. 

[Roger Smith]

A top ten Dec precip outcome will also give at least a top eleven annual outcome ... current top tens for Dec and years (155 years are ranked, or will be at end of Dec) ...

 

Rank _ DEC ____ YEAR 

10 _ 6.51" (2018) ___ 59.73" (2021) 

09 _ 6.62" (2008) ___ 59.89" (2006) 

08 _ 6.77" (1902) ___ 60.92" (1990) 

07 _ 7.01" (1901) ___ 61.21" (1975) 

06 _ 7.07" (1969) ___ 61.67" (2007) 

05 _ 7.09" (2019) ___ 65.11" (1989) 

04 _ 7.27" (2009) ___ 65.55" (2018) 

03 _ 7.53" (1936) ___ 67.03" (1972)

02 _ 9.77" (1983) ___ 72.81" (2011)

01 _ 9.98" (1973) ___ 80.56" (1983)

_______________________________________________

Current totals, 5.10" and 57.68" 

Annual total ranks 15th, to get to top ten 2023 will need to add 2.05" and get past 14th 1913 (58.00"), 13th place 1889 (58.18"), 12th place 2003 (58.42") and 11th place 1903 (58.52").

Dec only needs 1.41" to get to 10th (for Dec) and is currently at 30th, so would be passing 20 years if that falls.

Not sure if these will happen but 14th to 11th (annual) are all in a relatively narrow range and only 0.32" to 0.84" is needed to pass any or all four; 10th is a bit of a stretch after 11th. 

------------- ---------------- 

Also not discussed a lot compared to 2022-23 seasonal futility, 2023 calendar year snowfall will be lowest on record unless 1.1" falls before NYE/NYD at NYC. 1913 is currently lowest at 3.4".

Current top ten in low snowfall futility, years and seasons (not counting 2023-24 as a season but including 2023 to date as a calendar year): 

 

_01 ____  2.3 (2023) ____ 2.3 (2022-2023)

_02 ____ 3.4 (1913) _____ 2.8 (1972-1973)

_03 ____ 5.6 (1973) _____ 3.5 (2001-2002)

_04 ____ 7.5 (1998) _____ 3.8 (1918-1919)

_05 ____ 7.6 (1953) _____ 4.8 (2019-2020)

_06 ____ 8.0 (1931) _____ 5.3 (1931-1932)

_07 ____ 8.8 (1951) _____ 5.5 (1997-1998)

_08 ____ 9.6 (2012) ____ 7.4 (2011-2012)

_09 ____ 9.9 (1997) ____ 8.1 (1877-1878)

_10 ____ 10.7 (1999)__(t9) 8.1 (1900-1901)

_________________________

Despite its previous top futility ranking, 1913 was part of only 35th lowest winter total in 1912-1913 and then winter 1913-1914 turned snowy (and cold) after New Years and ranks 34th highest snowfall (40.5"), the cold was severe in parts of Jan and Feb, and a large snowstorm occurred march 1-2. 

 

 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks for posting. This would be amazing if it comes to fruition. 

[North and West]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for posting. This would be amazing if it comes to fruition. 

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Can you put it into words that my dog would understand? tyvm. 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

 

Can you put it into words that my dog would understand? tyvm. 

Grrr WOOF WOOF! Grrr bow wow wow wow, grrrrrrr woof, woof! 

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, North and West said:

 

Can you put it into words that my dog would understand? tyvm. 

Higher heights in Alaska would promote colder air.

Higher heights in Greenland would provide blocking.

Only concern is the lack of a PNA.

[North and West]

Grrr WOOF WOOF! Grrr bow wow wow wow, grrrrrrr woof, woof! 

.

[lee59]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Who knows what normal means anymore with our snowfall when NYC goes from the snowiest 5 year period to the 7th least snowiest 5 year period in the same 10 year period. 

 

Maximum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	209.4	2014-01-01 through 2018-12-31	0
2	205.2	1914-01-01 through 1918-12-31	2
3	204.9	1892-01-01 through 1896-12-31	3
4	204.3	1893-01-01 through 1897-12-31	3
5	202.1	1944-01-01 through 1948-12-31	0
6	199.4	2013-01-01 through 2017-12-31	0
7	197.0	1871-01-01 through 1875-12-31	0
8	193.4	1872-01-01 through 1876-12-31	0
9	193.0	2010-01-01 through 2014-12-31	0
10	191.3	1895-01-01 through 1899-12-31	3

 

Minimum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	66.1	1928-01-01 through 1932-12-31	0
2	66.2	1927-01-01 through 1931-12-31	0
3	71.9	1951-01-01 through 1955-12-31	0
4	72.2	1950-01-01 through 1954-12-31	0
5	74.8	1988-01-01 through 1992-12-31	0
6	77.0	1949-01-01 through 1953-12-31	0
7	77.7	2019-01-01 through 2023-12-31	12
9	79.4	1997-01-01 through 2001-12-31	1
10	81.8	1973-01-01 through 1977-12-31	0
-	77.7	1971-01-01 through 1975-12-31	0

 

I guess it only makes sence after the snowiest 5year period , we would have a snow drought. 

[SnoSki14]

44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Higher heights in Alaska would promote colder air.

Higher heights in Greenland would provide blocking.

Only concern is the lack of a PNA.

You don't need a +PNA if that setup verifies. That's a split flow pattern. It would snow a lot if true. 

Huge emphasis on 'IF' though. 

[MJO812]

Wow

Weakening 

[snowman19]

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewave for always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewavefor always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree. 1 snowy month, if things go right.  Canada is not cold.  Hard to get snow in a +3 degree temp anomaly in these parts as December demonstrates.   When will the cold cycle down from Canada is anyones guess and yes I know its modeled in the LR but lets get it inside the mid range at least.  

[brooklynwx99]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewave for always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

those 5 day anomaly maps include the 27th and 28th, which is before the cutter and that warm shot has been trending warmer due to better ensemble agreement. it's pretty misleading. if they wanted to show a can kick, they should have shown Dec 30 onwards, not what they showed here. afterwards, the pattern still remains the same

also, Indian Ocean forcing in El Nino Januarys is cold 

[brooklynwx99]

also, you don't need an Arctic cold outbreak for it to snow in an active pattern in early to mid-Jan. you just need it near to slightly BN, which is what ensembles have for the beginning of the month. the snow cover stuff is a concern, but if air is coming out of AK and northern Canada it will be cold enough for us

could that change later on towards the end of the month? perhaps, but that's way out there and a -NAO can pop for all we know

[JustinRP37]

It has been about a week or longer since I posted my thoughts and what was looking like a great 2023/2024 ski season did come to a record breaking halt with the last storm. To be blunt, I don't know how some resorts will recover from this. Lots of holiday cancellation in these tourist towns and in SNE and NY, the resorts don't have any pack. Catskills are working on rapidly rebuilding their packs, but many just won't feel the ski bug during a holiday week in the upper 40s and low 50s in the metro area. Looking ahead to the future, I don't see sustained cold air to get people in that "wintry" feeling. Looking to the west and north, same thing. In order for me to feel better I need to see our overnight lows getting back to normal and I just don't see that happening yet. While we were routinely getting freezing overnight temps in the mountains and suburbs in the beginning of the month we are no longer consistently seeing that, and that is very problematic for winter sports on the east coast. So while I do think we will get snow this year, I think we end up well below average for snow cover duration and peak snow depth in the mountains. I hope I am wrong, but I do think we get another strong rain storm even up into northern New England before the pattern change. 

[JustinRP37]

And you can't blame me this winter, I didn't buy a snow blower or new skis this year!!! I did both last year, so you can blame me for that. So who bought the snow blower and skis this year? 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It has been about a week or longer since I posted my thoughts and what was looking like a great 2023/2024 ski season did come to a record breaking halt with the last storm. To be blunt, I don't know how some resorts will recover from this. Lots of holiday cancellation in these tourist towns and in SNE and NY, the resorts don't have any pack. Catskills are working on rapidly rebuilding their packs, but many just won't feel the ski bug during a holiday week in the upper 40s and low 50s in the metro area. Looking ahead to the future, I don't see sustained cold air to get people in that "wintry" feeling. Looking to the west and north, same thing. In order for me to feel better I need to see our overnight lows getting back to normal and I just don't see that happening yet. While we were routinely getting freezing overnight temps in the mountains and suburbs in the beginning of the month we are no longer consistently seeing that, and that is very problematic for winter sports on the east coast. So while I do think we will get snow this year, I think we end up well below average for snow cover duration and peak snow depth in the mountains. I hope I am wrong, but I do think we get another strong rain storm even up into northern New England before the pattern change. 

Disastrous timing on that storm for ski country.  While they will recover some, many trails won't be open for the lucrative xmas week.  I'd sure cancel-who wants to ski with a zillion people going down the few trails that are open?   And you're right-the "backyard effect" will not be in play either.   (Ski areas do better when the coast has snow regardless of what they get as people see snow and think ski)

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those 5 day anomaly maps include the 27th and 28th, which is before the cutter and that warm shot has been trending warmer due to better ensemble agreement. afterwards, the pattern still remains the same
also, Indian Ocean forcing in El Nino Januarys is cold 

The IO MJO forcing is going to be competing with the forcing from the Nino standing wave. Eric uses Paul Roundy’s plots to show the atmospheric response leading to the RNA, as he said, this is not a “classic” La Niña RNA with a monster SE ridge. I also think the PAC jet is being badly undermodeled by the long range models as we have seen time and again, the very strong El Niño is only lending more credibility to this. The lack of snowcover/ice is another huge issue for cold. My guess is that January ends up warmer than normal with below average snow. I know you disagree and we are in 2 different camps here. I’m standing by this and we will see how this all works out in a month. If I’m wrong, so be it
 

[Brian5671]

If we end up with a western trough we are screwed unless there's AO/NAO blocking-otherwise it's cutter city.

[JustinRP37]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Disastrous timing on that storm for ski country.  While they will recover some, many trails won't be open for the lucrative xmas week.  I'd sure cancel-who wants to ski with a zillion people going down the few trails that are open?   And you're right-the "backyard effect" will not be in play either.   (Ski areas do better when the coast has snow regardless of what they get as people see snow and think ski)

Yeah it is a disaster, not to many some ski areas are blocked from main roads due to washouts. Really a horrible time of year for that to happen after a tough start last year. For the more southern areas, I am beginning to wonder how they will survive (the ones without year round events). 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If we end up with a western trough we are screwed unless there's AO/NAO blocking-otherwise it's cutter city.

it would be temporary and not of the same strength as we've seen over the last few years. could get some overrunning type events if the EPO is still negative like it shows there

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it would be temporary and not of the same strength as we've seen over the last few years. could get some overrunning type events if the EPO is still negative like it shows there

Do we actually believe we see sustained -EPO though? Given the long range -EPO mirages we have seen time and again with these models….color me very skeptical, just like the PAC jet “weakening” only to get stronger as we get closer in time. A Nino of this strength does not support sustained -EPO and @Stormchaserchuck1 posted some very convincing evidence that a +EPO December in a Nino leads to the EPO also averaging positive for January in almost all of the past cases

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Do we actually believe we see sustained -EPO though? Given the long range -EPO mirages we have seen time and again with these models….color me very skeptical, just like the PAC jet “weakening” only to get stronger as we get closer in time. A Nino of this strength does not support sustained -EPO and @Stormchaserchuck1 posted some very convincing evidence that a +EPO December in a Nino leads to the EPO also averaging positive for January in almost all of the past cases

the strengthening of the Pacific jet earlier this year was due to a EAMT that models missed. I don't see anything like that coming up right now. models are pretty neutral on EAMT right now

it will also be difficult to get a +EPO for the rest of the month given that Jan likely begins solidly -EPO. sure, it's possible, but it would take some doing

[bluewave]

All-time December record high temperatures  in Newfoundland and Labrador this week. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

In the similar-starting winter of 1913-14 (after a year with a simiilar snow drought starting in Jan 1913), the winter began with a mild early Jan, severe cold briefly around Jan 13-14, back to mild late Jan, then more persistent cold Feb into early march, snowfall amounts show it did not snow much in Jan, and waited for Feb and march to pile up a respectable 34th snowiest winter (1913-14). 

I added precip and average temps for relevant portions of 1913 and 1914 to April to give more context. 

 

Winter __ Nov_ Dec_ Jan _Feb _ mar _Apr __ winter _ year

1912-13 ____ 0.8 __11.4 __ 0.3 __ 2.6 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ _1912-13 15.3" ___ 1913 __ 3.4" (all in 1912-13 winter, 2.6 in Feb)

1912-13 precip __ 5.01 _3.43 _ 2.74 _6.47 _ 6.27 __ summer and autumn fairly wet, esp Oct (12.97")

1913 total precip 58.00" will end up very close to 2023, 14th wettest year at present just ahead of 2023.

1913-14 sn _ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _1913-14 40.5" ___ 1914 _ 42.8" (40.2 + 2.6 Dec 1914)

1913-14 precip __ 3.59 _ 5.27 _3.33 _4.74 _3.34 __ summer and autumn generally dry esp Sep (0.29")

1913-14 avg F ___ 38.7 _ 31.5 _25.4 _36..5 _47.9 __ looks a bit like winter 2014-15 ... add 1.0 to adjust for present u.h.i.

1913-14 adj _____ 39.7 _ 32.5 _ 26.4 _37.5 _ 48.9

2014-15 _________40.5 _ 29.9 _ 23.9 _38.1 _ 54.3 

Summer 1914 resembles 1895 with odd bookend heat waves in late may and mid to late Sep.

1913 by standards of early 20th century was a fairly warm year overall and had some significant summer heat, very few cold spells especially by standards of that era. Just like spring 2023 an early heat wave set records (it was 1-5 may, two weeks later than 2023 spring heat). 

Not sure if 1913-14 was an El Nino winter or if we know for sure. It was a low solar year between a low peak (1905-07 twin peaks) and a moderate peak (1917) leading into the active 20th century run. As with 2022, Jan 1912 was cold. 1912 was a generally cold year and could have been influenced by volcanic dust from Katmai volcano erupting in Alaska. 

2021 and 1911 have similarity of heat dome occurrences, but 1911 was central and east, 2021 west. 

Overall, I believe this study would encourage one to predict a back-loaded winter with possibly quite a cold Feb after variable Jan, and snowstorms peaking in Feb -march. Of course many don't need encouragement.

Storm of mar 1-2 1914 was a doozy with a very low central pressure below 950 mbs, I believe it set a record for low pressure at NYC. It circled around off the NJ-LI coasts for a while and dropped 14.5" (2.95" liquid on 1st so it could have been a lot heavier snow inland). Record lows of -3F and -5F (Jan 13, 14) and -3F, -1F (Feb 12, 13) and 1F (Feb 25 tied 1894), but it was close to 60F around Jan 29-31, so quite a variable pattern before colder began to dominate in February and early march. 8.1" snow fell on Feb 14 after record cold spell. 

[qg_omega]

Incredible warm start to winter for the country and the continent, historic warmth fueled by the super Nino.  Classic well coupled strong Nino

[qg_omega]

On 11/23/2023 at 2:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern.

also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving!

Last years December was miles better than this month, had record cold vs record warmth across the country