December 2023

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We have had plenty of hostile patterns in December since 2011, but the snow extent across North America is the lowest in nearly 20 years. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

I think the best way for this to change that is PV consolidation and then some sort of Aleutian ridge to displace it towards NA.  Need to have the cold air shunted towards NA after this coming PNA spike to fix the snowcover issue.

[Roger Smith]

 

Top 20 Dec mild to Jan cold at NYC 

_ for inclusion in list, Dec >37.0 F __ >0.6 above LTA

_ median drop is 4.4 F, over 155 years, from 36.4 to 32.0 F

_ average of cases below is a drop from 40.9 to 29.7 F (+4.3 to -2.3)

_ a few winters saw drops in same range, but Dec was below 37.0F

 

Rank ____ Dec ______ Jan _______ diff

_01 ____2015 50.8 _ 2016 34.5 __ -16.3

_02 ____ 1911 39.4 _ 1912 23.7 __ -15.7

_03 ____1984 43.8 _ 1985 28.8 __ -15.0

_04 ____2021 43.8 _ 2022 30.3 __ -13.5

_05 ____2003 37.6 _ 2004 24.7 __ -12.9

_06____1956 40.9 _ 1957 28.5 __ -12.4

_07 ____1993 37.3 _ 1994 25.6 __ -11.7

_08 ____1967 38.2 _ 1968 26.7 __ -11.5

_09 ____1891 42.3 _ 1892 31.5 __ -10.8

_10 ____1881 39.4 _ 1882 28.8 __ -10.6

_11 ____1953 41.3 _ 1954 30.8 __ -10.5

_12 ____2008 38.1 _ 2009 27.9 __ -10.2

_13 ____1987 39.5 _ 1988 29.5 __ -10.0

_14 ____2013 38.5 _ 2014 28.6 ___ -9.9

_15t____1923 42.0 _ 1924 32.7 ___ -9.3

_15t____1998 43.2 _ 1999 33.9 ___ -9.3

_17 ____ 1996 41.3 _ 1997 32.2 ___ -9.1

_18 ____ 1999 40.0 _ 2000 31.3 __ -8.7

_19t____1957 40.2 _ 1958 31.9 ___ -8.3

_19t____1965 40.5 _ 1966 32.2 ___ -8.3

_19t____1982 42.8 _ 1983 34.5 ___ -8.3

 

Recent cases considered marginal include:

_xx ____2018 40.1 _ 2019 32.5 ___ -7.6

(_xx ____2004 38.4 _ 2005 31.3 ___ -7.1)

(_xx ____2012 41.5 _ 2013 35.1 ____ -6.4)

 

 

At least we can conclude large drops in Dec to Jan are not unusual. 

[Stormlover74]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

I love MJO812’s unbridled optimism. I have no idea who is right and who is wrong, but it’s a nice counterweight to negativity (not the forecasts).


.

Gfs had the cold beginning around the 29th now it's the 1st. Let's see in a few days if it's still there or pushed back to the 4th

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Crazy gfs differences from 12z

MJO being weenied by Snowman is such an automatic knee jerk given now with his every post that even if MJO talked about an episode of diarrhea he had yesterday, the weenie stamp would still be there. I knew someone would weenie this post too 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

MJO being weenied by Snowman is such an automatic knee jerk given now with his every post that even if MJO talked about an episode of diarrhea he had yesterday, the weenie stamp would still be there. 

He is 5 posted

[Tatamy]

I was up in northeastern Pennsylvania today where there was actually some snow on the ground from overnight snow showers.  It was very hit or miss with some places having about a 1/2” - 3/4” OTG while many others were green and brown like these parts.  I actually saw some blowing snow in one area - that was a shock to see.  2000’ in the Poconos got you 3/4”.  I did come across one place where there was a shopping center with a sheet of ice in the parking lot.  I don’t miss that.  I am guessing that area will have a Christmas as brown as ours.

[Volcanic Winter]

I’m taking a trip to NE for my birthday in Feb. We kept it quick and simple and went to Danbury last year. Did some beautiful hikes, though in 50 degrees and with bare ass ground which was depressing. This year I’m looking for more of a sure thing to step into some snow, so I think we’re going to go up to Vermont. 

Still planning things out but should be a good time. I used to snowboard but had a major back injury a decade ago, so I stick to hiking these days. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I was up in northeastern Pennsylvania today where there was actually some snow on the ground from overnight snow showers.  It was very hit or miss with some places having about a 1/2” - 3/4” OTG while many others were green and brown like these parts.  I actually saw some blowing snow in one area - that was a shock to see.  2000’ in the Poconos got you 3/4”.  I did come across one place where there was a shopping center with a sheet of ice in the parking lot.  I don’t miss that.  I am guessing that area will have a Christmas as brown as ours.

The place to be in PA for snow is the Laurel Highlands by far. They had locally 8” overnight from upslope/lake effect and get 150”+/year in the favored spots. There may be some places east of Erie that come close but even there I don’t think that much. Flip side is Bedford and Blair counties get downsloped all winter and have 1/4 or less seasonal average. 

[Roger Smith]

Don and/or bluewave can confirm exact details, but I believe 2023 will surprass previous contenders for warmest year at NYC (2012 and 2020 were close to being tied at 57.3 F), as long as it remains above 1991-2020 normal value. As latest projections are close to +3 anomaly for Dec, 2023 would average close to 57.5 or even 57.6. January set a pace and despite one or two cooler months like Nov, it will become new top of the heap.

[Jersey Andrew]

15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Don and/or bluewave can confirm exact details, but I believe 2023 will surprass previous contenders for warmest year at NYC (2012 and 2020 were close to being tied at 57.3 F), as long as it remains above 1991-2020 normal value. As latest projections are close to +3 anomaly for Dec, 2023 would average close to 57.5 or even 57.6. January set a pace and despite one or two cooler months like Nov, it will become new top of the heap.

Roger, does it even seem possible to have winters as cold as late 1970s in Northeast?

[SACRUS]

Records

 

Highs:

EWR: 60 (1931)
NYC: 58 (1931)
LGA: 57 (1957)


Lows:

EWR: 9 (1942)
NYC: -1 (1884)
LGA: 14 (1980)

Historical:

 

 

1777 - The Continental Army moved into encampment at Valley Forge amidst stormy winds and piercing cold. A relatively moderate winter followed. (David Ludlum)

1924 - The Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park, WY, reported a low of 59 degrees below zero, a December record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A tornado, 200 yards in width, killed two persons along its 15-mile path from near Waldo to near Bueana Vista in southwestern Arkansas. People from one house were carried 250 yards, and cars were said to have been carried 600 yards. (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A record 83 inches of snow covered the ground at Flagstaff, AZ. The heavy snows inflicted great hardships on reservations. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Venus TX and Providence LA. Rain prevailed from the Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Small stream flooding was reported around Columbia MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure and a trailing cold front in the central U.S. brought snow and high winds to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Winds in Colorado gusted to 67 mph at La Junta. Thunderstorms along the same cold front produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Kansas City MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds and heavy snow plagued the northern and central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 12 inches at Lincoln, and wind gusts in Colorado reached 97 mph at Squaw Mountain. Twelve cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Dickinson ND with a reading of 26 degrees below zero. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - A snow and ice storm on December 19 affected parts of the U.S. Midwest. Over 220,000 homes and businesses across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were left without electric services. No fatalities were reported (Reuters).

 

2009: Snowfall totals from 1 to 2 feet were commonplace in what will go down as one of the biggest snowstorms in history on the East Coast and the first of four snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic during the winter of 2009-10. The 15 inches of snow measured at Reagan International Airport on Dec. 19th was the third-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day at Washington, DC, since snowfall records began in 1884. The total storm snowfall of 16.4 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Washington, DC putting it just below the second President's Day storm in 2003 and ahead of the Jan 1996 storm. Baltimore Washington Airport saw 20.5 inches of snow and went down as the fifth-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day in Baltimore since snowfall records began in 1893. The total storm snowfall of 21.0 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Baltimore. The daily snowfall records for Dec 19 were smashed for the most snowfall for any calendar day during December at the following stations. Reagan National Airport's new record was 15.0 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. Baltimore Washington Airport's new record was 20.5 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. This was the biggest December snowstorm on record and setting a record for the snowiest December for Baltimore, MD. Dulles Airport's new record was 16.0 inches, old record 10.6 in 1982. Richmond International Airport had a total of 6.4 inches. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, reported its second greatest daily snowfall total on record with 22.9 inches. It also was the single most significant December snowfall for the city of Philadelphia, PA. Roanoke, Virginia, recorded 17.8 inches setting a record for the greatest 24-hour snowfall in December. Washington, DC, reported 16.4 inches of snowmaking 2009 the snowiest December on record, all in one storm. In New York, Upton on Long Island recorded 26.3 inches, the biggest snowstorm on record.

[SACRUS]

 

14 years ago

 

[Roger Smith]

46 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Roger, does it even seem possible to have winters as cold as late 1970s in Northeast?

I don't know but I wouldn't put a lot of cash on it, all trends are rising, but Feb 2015 shows that anything is possible. But not probable. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Don and/or bluewave can confirm exact details, but I believe 2023 will surprass previous contenders for warmest year at NYC (2012 and 2020 were close to being tied at 57.3 F), as long as it remains above 1991-2020 normal value. As latest projections are close to +3 anomaly for Dec, 2023 would average close to 57.5 or even 57.6. January set a pace and despite one or two cooler months like Nov, it will become new top of the heap.

It is virtually certain that 2023 will become NYC’s warmest year on record. My guess is that it will finish at 57.8 or 57.9.

[WestBabylonWeather]

50 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

14 years ago

 

I remember this 

[donsutherland1]

Winter futility rankings through December 19th: Winter 2023-2024 is yet another warm, late-starting winter:

Mean seasonal snowfall for the 9 winters listed with 2023-24: 17.2"

Most seasonal snowfall: 32.8", 2015-16

Least seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants!  It is Dec 20.

Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. 

Adding some closing data to the past storm thread.

Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this).  We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.

[kdennis78]

43 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants!  It is Dec 20.

Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. 

Adding some closing data to the past storm thread.

Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this).  We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.

Are we looking at a long term event to get 2" or are we looking at an ocean storm with heavy rains, slow motion and more flooding across the area? 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just happened to take a peak at temps over in Beijing…

 

That’s pretty wild. I don’t know much about their normal temps, but I know they sit at 39N and that’s pretty damn cold. 

[jetrz]

18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just happened to take a peak at temps over in Beijing…

 

That’s pretty wild. I don’t know much about their normal temps, but I know they sit at 39N and that’s pretty damn cold. 

Their December average is 38/19, so definitely in the middle of a cold snap now.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Just happened to take a peak at temps over in Beijing…

 

That’s pretty wild. I don’t know much about their normal temps, but I know they sit at 39N and that’s pretty damn cold. 

Yeah, it’s helping to drive the warmth here with the big jet extension.

 

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter starts in 2 days 

Sort of

14 hours ago, psv88 said:

Grass is nice and green headed into the new year 

Most of the golf courses look better than they do in-season.

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants!  It is Dec 20.

Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. 

Adding some closing data to the past storm thread.

Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this).  We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.

Please no. I spent 10 hours yesterday sucking water out of my basement with a shop vac and this morning it's worse than yesterday. I'll be ordering a dupster to throw out a bunch of stuff we liked.

[bluewave]

The high temperatures are driving the warm departures for a change so far this month. The +5.1 departure in NYC is an average between a +5.3 max departure and +4.8 min departure. A large portion of the Northern States are +5 or greater. 
 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning American Weather participants!  It is Dec 20.

Not starting a thread yet for Dec 27-29 which should include a soaking rain (27th) of 3/4-2", and maybe a touch of snow (29ish?). Want to see how this evolves and see if it's worth a thread. 

Adding some closing data to the past storm thread.

Make this a good day despite the least snow extent in North America the past 20 years (nice previous post on this).  We should eventually need snow sticks for the driveway, shovels for the walk and I hope snow blowers can handle the wet snow on the driveway. I put my faith in that something has to happen in the El Niño pattern once January rolls around.

This next storm could put NYC at or over 60 inches of rain on the year which I believe would be top 5

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter futility rankings through December 19th: Winter 2023-2024 is yet another warm, late-starting winter:

Mean seasonal snowfall for the 9 winters listed with 2023-24: 17.2"

Most seasonal snowfall: 32.8", 2015-16

Least seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02

Thanks for this Don,

It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. 

Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter.

In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment).

Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously.

Thanks!

[EastonSN+]

Found this courtesy of the weather underground site. I did not realize that the 50s, 70s and 80s had less snowfall than the 90s, which I pegged as the least snowy period for NYC.

The last two decades moved the average pretty high (i feel lucky to have lived through). Would be interesting to see if 2020 through 2029 can rival the 70s (personally hope not lol).

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this Don,

It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. 

Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter.

In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment).

Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously.

Thanks!

For winters 1988-89 through 1999-00:

Mean snowfall: 22.4"

Mean snowfall excluding 1995-96: 17.6"

Mean snowfall excluding 1993-94 and 1995-96: 13.9"

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

For winters 1988-89 through 1999-00:

Mean snowfall: 22.4"

Mean snowfall excluding 1995-96: 17.6"

Mean snowfall excluding 1993-94 and 1995-96: 13.9"

Thanks Don - your the best!

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this courtesy of the weather underground site. I did not realize that the 50s, 70s and 80s had less snowfall than the 90s, which I pegged as the least snowy period for NYC.

The last two decades moved the average pretty high (i feel lucky to have lived through). Would be interesting to see if 2020 through 2029 can rival the 70s (personally hope not lol).

We’re due for a depressing stretch. Even putting climate change aside which will make it worse, the tendency for more Nina stretches (barring that, the boiling W PAC isn’t going away which drives the Nina like patterns), -PDO cycle etc is unfavorable for us. We can pull rabbits out of a hat in -PDO/La Niña periods but generally they suck. Too soon to say we’re in the depressing new regime but the factors I mentioned would drive it. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re due for a depressing stretch. Even putting climate change aside which will make it worse, the tendency for more Nina stretches (barring that, the boiling W PAC isn’t going away which drives the Nina like patterns), -PDO cycle etc is unfavorable for us. We can pull rabbits out of a hat in -PDO/La Niña periods but generally they suck. Too soon to say we’re in the depressing new regime but the factors I mentioned would drive it. 

Yeah, agree we are due for regression. 

I do not personally agree with the new regime theory.

I DO think that warmer Atlantic waters can in theory help reduce suppression and perhaps lead to increased snowfall. Take for example 86/87, DC was crushed with snowfall. IF the SE ridge is a more permanent feature, with stronger intensification we can increase snowfall totals in suppression scenarios.

IMO, we lose out in borderline temperature snow events while increasing opportunities for large moisture laden snow events. I would be concerned if we didn't see North Carolina and the Delmarva see snow events anymore, which they just did 2 years ago.

This year comes down to a strong El Nino which typically floods Canada with PAC air. Last year was not due to lack of continental cold air, it was just allocated off and just on the west coast, which WAS beneficial for snowpack and reservoir water supply which they desperately needed.