Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:24 PM, North and West said: I always found these posts vaguely terrifying. . Expand He had a big pattern change earlier and busted horribly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:23 PM, Dark Star said: Sadly, this is not true arctic air, as the Pacific jet is pumping warm air all the way into Canada. Expand We really want some part of that PV into our hemisphere. We’re already down one strike with most of the real cold in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 1:36 PM, Brian5671 said: Brutal: Good track but zero cold air.... Expand Example 1000 for decent tracks not guaranteeing snow. Even 97-98 had some good snow events inland/elevated. Not saying again this is a repeat this winter but we really need to shuffle the deck to put us in the game, and even shuffling the deck will likely take a week when it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 1:36 PM, Brian5671 said: Brutal: Good track but zero cold air.... Expand Hence, this is why Canada NEEDS to have arctic air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:26 PM, Brian5671 said: He had a big pattern change earlier and busted horribly Expand He’s the kiss of death. He had a big winter last year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 12:06 PM, Tatamy said: Anyone else (NW NJ / NY)have a small coating of snow on the ground this morning? My low so far has been 33.5. I looked outside and thought this can’t be real. Expand I did. Trace amount of the deck. Two day rainfall total = 4.44" (3.82"+ .62") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:23 PM, Dark Star said: Sadly, this is not true arctic air, as the Pacific jet is pumping warm air all the way into Canada. Expand The trough off of the west coast needs to migrate further west. If it does not then it's 97/98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:47 PM, EastonSN+ said: The trough off of the west coast needs to migrate further west. If it does not then it's 97/98. Expand 97/98 everybody drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 1:58 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Are you the least bit familiar with the concept of page hits??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 3:00 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Are you the least bit familiar with the concept of page hits??? Expand it's amazing what weenies will lap up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 It sounds like a person is shoveling snow outside my house but he is fixing his garden . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:27 PM, jm1220 said: We really want some part of that PV into our hemisphere. We’re already down one strike with most of the real cold in Asia. Expand Most of Arctic air in Eurasia will dump into the Pacific next few weeks and rapidly modify leaving very little Arctic air in the Northern Hemisphere. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Hideous. Road trip to Baja California for some cold? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 3:23 PM, bluewave said: Most of Arctic air in Eurasia will dump into the Pacific next few weeks and rapidly modify leaving very little Arctic air in the Northern Hemisphere. Expand Is this some kind of long term climate shift? It seems like this happens EVERY YEAR now-- la nina, el nino, or lo nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:29 PM, jm1220 said: Example 1000 for decent tracks not guaranteeing snow. Even 97-98 had some good snow events inland/elevated. Not saying again this is a repeat this winter but we really need to shuffle the deck to put us in the game, and even shuffling the deck will likely take a week when it happens. Expand Maybe it will be like 1982-83 or 2015-16 and we will get our chance in the climo peak of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:01 PM, LibertyBell said: Is this some kind of long term climate shift? It seems like this happens EVERY YEAR now-- la nina, el nino, or lo nada Expand We had a trough mostly on the east coast from 2000 through 2018, now we are seeing regression to the mean. One question I ponder is a 50 year average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:04 PM, LibertyBell said: Maybe it will be like 1982-83 or 2015-16 and we will get our chance in the climo peak of winter? Expand I think most would happily take a plowable event. Imagine if someone posted here in Feb 2022 that the next plowable storm would be 2 yrs away? (and then they would be correct as mid Feb 2022 was NYC and south's last event of note.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 1:46 PM, Volcanic Winter said: I’m sure rains to Quebec precedes all our best winter periods! Nah, I’m staying optimistic that January will be more agreeable. But I don’t see anything realistically happening until after NYE and likely then some. Expand using the 2015-16 analog, likely around 1/20 or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:06 PM, Brian5671 said: I think most would happily take a plowable event. Imagine if someone posted here in Feb 2022 that the next plowable storm would be 2 yrs away? (and then they would be correct as mid Feb 2022 was NYC and south's last event of note.) Expand Yep, this period compares to some of our worst stretches (late 80s early 90s and again late 90s into the new millenium) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:06 PM, EastonSN+ said: We had a trough mostly on the east coast from 2000 through 2018, now we are seeing regression to the mean. One question I ponder is a 50 year average. Expand there were some really bad winters in that 2000-2018 period though: 2001-02 2006-07 2007-08 2011-12 more good ones though is this some kind of cyclic oscillation rather than simple regression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:06 PM, Brian5671 said: I think most would happily take a plowable event. Imagine if someone posted here in Feb 2022 that the next plowable storm would be 2 yrs away? (and then they would be correct as mid Feb 2022 was NYC and south's last event of note.) Expand My “get worried” date is 1/15 since I know Ninos are back-loaded and we went from record warm Dec to record largest NYC snowstorm in Jan 2016, but we need some pretty major changes. Of course all we really need is a few days to line up with a major Nino juiced storm. And we don’t need Arctic cold in Jan/Feb but raging Pacific warmth will never work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 2:38 PM, uofmiami said: Expand He's making a fair point about the seasonal IOD collapse and subsequent weakening of the standing wave signal in the IO. Not sure that's necessarily the way out on it's own like he's indicating here, but the path analysis to source region shift makes sense conceptually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:29 PM, jm1220 said: My “get worried” date is 1/15 since I know Ninos are back-loaded and we went from record warm Dec to record largest NYC snowstorm in Jan 2016, but we need some pretty major changes. Of course all we really need is a few days to line up with a major Nino juiced storm. And we don’t need Arctic cold in Jan/Feb but raging Pacific warmth will never work. Expand If we get to 1/15 in ANY year and it's not looking good, it's probably not coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:39 PM, Brian5671 said: If we get to 1/15 in ANY year and it's not looking good, it's probably not coming. Expand Unless it's 92 and we have to wait til mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:06 PM, Brian5671 said: I think most would happily take a plowable event. Imagine if someone posted here in Feb 2022 that the next plowable storm would be 2 yrs away? (and then they would be correct as mid Feb 2022 was NYC and south's last event of note.) Expand Ground was too warm to make that event plowable. last event that required snow removal in the metro was 1/22/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 3:30 PM, Brian5671 said: Hideous. Road trip to Baja California for some cold? LOL Expand Antarctica 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:44 PM, Allsnow said: Ground was too warm to make that event plowable. last event that required snow removal in the metro was 1/22/22 Expand Wow-even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:50 PM, Brian5671 said: Wow-even worse. Expand We should get a 2-3 week stretch of cold weather come January. The standing wave in p7 is finally dissipating and we will have a new wave form in p1. The enso map for p3 and p4 for Nino January is cold in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 On 12/19/2023 at 4:54 PM, Allsnow said: We should get a 2-3 week stretch of cold weather come January. The standing wave in p7 is finally dissipating and we will have a new wave form in p1. The enso map for p3 and p4 for Nino January is cold in the east Expand The hallmark of a ratter-a 2 to 3 week winter LOL. Let's hope it delivers.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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