December 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

Looks like about 2.4” here and sitting at 60. 

My tinsel snowman had a rough night 

[North and West]

This month will also feature one of the greatest AO rises on record for December from near -3 to near +3. 


 

Does that imply winter is canceled? (Honest question, as there are so many acronyms I can’t keep them all aligned in my head)


.

[MANDA]

3.82" here as of 8am.  Winds nothing notable.  Maybe a few gusts to 20 mph earlier this morning.  The ground is saturated.

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

3.82" here as of 8am.  Winds nothing notable.  Maybe a few gusts to 20 mph earlier this morning.  The ground is saturated.

We had a couple big gusts that woke us up early AM, but that’s not surprising given location. Overall didn’t seem too bad here. Looks like the brunt of the winds was E LI into NE. 

[rclab]

Good morning everyone. As per NWS/NOAA between 13:51 on the 17th and 07:51 on the 18th CPK has recorded 2.21”.  Maximum temp 62 and minimum pressure 29.15 at 07:51. A drop of .99 inches of mercury in about 19 hours. Rain currently moderate. Stay safe and dry all. As always ….

 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was worried about my forecast for a +AO/NAO December at the outset of the month, but looks like it will be okay.

This may be the first time that we had a +PNA -AO in early December with a weak Southeast ridge. 
 

[Allsnow]

@bluewave do you have the link for the pac jet ext grid forecast? 

[NittanyWx]

On 12/6/2023 at 2:03 PM, NittanyWx said:

Thinking is for a transient few cooler days around mid month sandwiched around warmer ones.  I still don't see permanent blowtorch, though I do think the post cool period could produce several much above normal days.

 

 

So just to update my thinking here from a few weeks back...we're in our much above normal temp phase post mid-month transient cool shot.

 

Now we're left with the following:  still no significant source region in Canada, dire snowpack in the mid-con and while we're seeing a PNA spike on most models...it doesn't have much of a source to tap into.  I think we are likely going to see an erosion of the much aboves heading into early January, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm not loving what source air there is to work with at this stage and was a little more hopeful to see the EPO  region shaken up instead of the bulk of this PV piece retro'ing back to Siberia.

 

The EPS has been struggling, significantly at that, with 2mT cold bias so far this winter.  I suspect it's doing so again late 11-15 day.  That said, I am expecting to see the much aboves ease off a bit.  

 

H5 improvements are likely in early January. Tropical forcing should be more C Pac/E Pac based as well, but lacking available cold air to tap into I don't see much more than a marginally cooler period ushering in the first week of Jan.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

So just to update my thinking here from a few weeks back...we're in our much above normal temp phase post mid-month transient cool shot.

 

Now we're left with the following:  still no significant source region in Canada, dire snowpack in the mid-con and while we're seeing a PNA retro on most models...it doesn't have much of a source to tap into.  I think we are likely going to see an erosion of the much aboves heading into early January, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm not loving what source air there is to work with at this stage and was a little more hopeful to see the EPO source region dislodged instead of the bulk of this PV piece retro'ing back to Siberia.

 

The EPS has been struggling, significantly at that, with 2mT cold bias so far this winter.  I suspect it's doing so again late 11-15 day.  That said, I am expecting to see the much aboves ease off a bit.  

I am hoping that this is not the same course of events as 97/98.

[NittanyWx]

I think on the surface a reversion to +PNA with some sort of trof in the east is justified view for early Jan.  There is a lack of significant source air to advect however which has been a common theme.

 

Now if this PNA spike ends up being more GOA focused, perhaps there's an ability to dislodge some colder air.  But in stormy situations with marginal airmasses, relying on a lot to go 'right' to thread the needle.  That's where my head is at right now.  I still see source region issues.

[Allsnow]

MJO still looks favorable going in the first of the year. I agree, temperatures will be an issue to start 2024. My hope is the AK ridge goes more poleward as with work in p3 of the mjo 

[coastalplainsnowman]

Right on schedule, our annual holiday mood crushing 60 degree day within a week of Christmas.  Here's what I think happened:  Somebody here sold their soul to you-know-who, Joe Namath style, in exchange for the December 26/27 2010 Blizzard, because since then, here's the high temperature reached at Farmingdale and LaGuardia, the week leading up to Christmas, for each year since.  Based on the 13 years since, Farmingdale on average hits 58.6 degrees, and LaGuardia reaches 61.8.  Edit:  Did the same for Thanksgiving week, defined as Nov. 22-Nov 30th.  Farmingdale for the Thanksgiving period averages just 2 degrees higher; LaGuardia has an outright lower maximum temp over the Thanksgiving timeframe than the Christmas week timeframe. (The averages are coincidentally the same for both sites for the Thanksgiving timeframe.)

 

 

 

[vegan_edible]

55 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Right on schedule, our annual holiday mood crushing 60 degree day within a week of Christmas.  Here's what I think happened:  Somebody here sold their soul to you-know-who, Joe Namath style, in exchange for the December 26/27 2010 Blizzard, because since then, here's the high temperature reached at Farmingdale and LaGuardia, the week leading up to Christmas, for each year since.  Based on the 13 years since, Farmingdale on average hits 58.6 degrees, and LaGuardia reaches 61.8.  Edit:  Did the same for Thanksgiving week, defined as Nov. 22-Nov 30th.  Farmingdale for the Thanksgiving period averages just 2 degrees higher; LaGuardia has an outright lower maximum temp over the Thanksgiving timeframe than the Christmas week timeframe. (The averages are coincidentally the same for both sites for the Thanksgiving timeframe.)

 

 

 

i think when i moved back here from california i killed winter. sorry guys :/

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i think when i moved back here from california i killed winter. sorry guys :/

I guess I should do the same analysis now from whatever town you arrived from and see if there's been an opposite effect on temperature there.

[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I guess I should do the same analysis now from whatever town you arrived from and see if there's been an opposite effect on temperature there.

ive bounced all over... but recently it was san diego to nyc metro 

[bluewave]

TEB looks like they tied their all-time December high dewpoint of 64°a few hours ago. 

 

 

[North and West]

28 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ive bounced all over... but recently it was san diego to nyc metro 

Dear God, why?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Dear God, why?

Maybe he likes rain

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Dear God, why?

grew up in albany, went to school in savannah, ga, got an internship in LA, moved back to albany, then to san diego for work, then my gf got into school here in the city and i landed a job in the city. couldnt take much more of socal anyway, talk about boring weather patterns 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS definitely trending more to EPS with more ridging out west and deeper trough in east.  6Z today compared to yesterday.

Good news.....

 

[snowman19]

I think on the surface a reversion to +PNA with some sort of trof in the east is justified view for early Jan.  There is a lack of significant source air to advect however which has been a common theme.
 
Now if this PNA spike ends up being more GOA focused, perhaps there's an ability to dislodge some colder air.  But in stormy situations with marginal airmasses, relying on a lot to go 'right' to thread the needle.  That's where my head is at right now.  I still see source region issues.

Bingo!!

[North and West]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good news.....

 

Explain this to me like I'm five.

[North and West]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Bingo!!

 

 

 

 

You and @MJO812 are like Crowley and Aziraphale from Good Omens.

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good news.....

 

And here's snowman to tell us why it's bad news

[NittanyWx]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Bingo!!

 

 

 

 

I'd rather have a quote tweet reply from pretty much anyone else other than BAMWX

[NittanyWx]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

TEB looks like they tied their all-time December high dewpoint of 64°a few hours ago. 

 

 

2015 and 1982...wonder if those years have something in common with this one

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

2015 and 1982...wonder if those years have something in common with this one

[binbisso]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Bingo!!

 

 

 

 

A plus 4 temperature departure at 7 AM January 1st is plenty cold to snow In much of the sub forum. At that time my normal low is 25°. As long as the system is beneath us,  which is what guidance is showing, 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

2015 and 1982...wonder if those years have something in common with this one

December 1982 was much cooler across the CONUS than 2015 and this year. But as we saw in 2015, El Niños combined with MJO 4-7 phases in December are very warm. The double digit departures in 2015 were centered over the Northeast with the record MJO 5 stall. The MJO action this December favored the double digit departures in Canada. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

A plus 4 temperature departure at 7 AM January 1st is plenty cold to snow In much of the sub forum. At that time my normal low is 25°. As long as the system is beneath us,  which is what guidance is showing, 

That's true in January-you don't need a crazy cold airmass like you do in shoulder months like Dec/Mar