December 2023

[bluewave]

NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15	Missing Count
1	2015-12-15	52.0	0
2	2001-12-15	51.3	0
3	1998-12-15	50.6	0
4	1953-12-15	47.4	0
5	1951-12-15	46.9	2
6	2021-12-15	45.4	0
7	2023-12-15	45.0	0
-	2012-12-15	45.0	0
-	2011-12-15	45.0	0
-	1991-12-15	45.0	0
8	1999-12-15	44.8	0
9	1923-12-15	44.7	0
10	1891-12-15	44.6	0

[WX-PA]

Now this should work going into January

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City has unlocked another sad winter record, as its unprecedented streak without 1" or more snowfall reaches 671 days today. New York City will record its 686th consecutive day without 2" or more daily snowfall. Both streaks look likely to continue through at least the next week, if not longer.

[WX-PA]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City has unlocked another sad winter record, as its unprecedented streak without 1" or more snowfall reaches 671 days today. New York City will record its 686th consecutive day without 2" or more daily snowfall. Both streaks look likely to continue through at least the next week, if not longer.

This has been the worst drought of my life..But they always say things even out to normal in weather. We'll see.

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City has unlocked another sad winter record, as its unprecedented streak without 1" or more snowfall reaches 671 days today. New York City will record its 686th consecutive day without 2" or more daily snowfall. Both streaks look likely to continue through at least the next week, if not longer.

700 looks easily reachable at the moment. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

This has been the worst drought of my life..But they always say things even out to normal in weather. We'll see.

I'm looking forward to breaking this drought.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

700 looks easily reachable at the moment. 

Unfortunately, it does.

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, it does.

I think early January ends it Don.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I think early January ends it Don.

Yes sir

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I think early January ends it Don.

 

It may end before that....it would have to be thread the needle or fortunate timing but there are chances for something to happen the final 10 days of the month

[suzook]

Its truly amazing how consistent these storms keep coming up the coast one after another. It would be unfortunate to not get one of them to produce a snowstorm. Hopefully when the cold does arrive, it doesn't suppress the storms too far south.

[brooklynwx99]

late month is interesting. just for the sake of demonstration, I will use the 06z GFS OP from this morning

we get a strong storm that’s in a marginal airmass that’s just a bit too warm for snow. however, given the weak SPV, we get in-situ -NAO blocking to form as a result, setting up a 50/50 ULL. on the Pacific side, the AK trough continues to retrograde, allowing for the PNA to spike. we end up getting a potent S/W that’s about to get trapped under the developing block with cold in place

although this is an OP run, it does show a totally reasonable pattern progression that can get us from a torch to something favorable in about 7-10 days 

[North and West]

New York City has unlocked another sad winter record, as its unprecedented streak without 1" or more snowfall reaches 671 days today. New York City will record its 686th consecutive day without 2" or more daily snowfall. Both streaks look likely to continue through at least the next week, if not longer.

Regression to the mean hurts. Not even not bothering to count every other variable.


.

[SACRUS]

 

To 41 from a low of 31.  Warm today then warm and very wet.windy Sunday into Mondy. Chills down for 36 hours or so Tue into Wed before more moderation and overall warmer than normal.  Storm is brewing.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR:  65  (2021)
NYC: 63 (1971)
LGA:  63 (2021)


Lows:

EWR:  10 (1942)
NYC: 7 (1876)
LGA: 13 (1951)

 

Historical:

 

1811:  An estimated Magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck the Mississippi Valley near the town of New Madrid in Missouri at 2:15 am local time. People were awakened by the shaking in New York City, Washington D.C., and Charleston, South Carolina. The ground motions were described as most alarming and frightening in places like Nashville, Tennessee, and Louisville, Kentucky. In the epicentral area, the ground surface was described as in great convulsion with sand and water ejected tens of feet into the air. 

1835 - New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH. The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)

1917 - An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw, KY, and Rising Sun, IN. The thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds, and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fairbanks, AK, reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND. Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2000 - An F4 tornado hits communities near Tuscaloosa, AL, killing 11 people and injuring 125 others. It was the strongest December tornado in Alabama since 1950.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, it does.

I feel the record is kind of cheap with two days consecutively of 0.9 in February 23 

[donsutherland1]

If the CFSv2 is right, patience remains in order. Genuine winter weather for the NYC and Philadelphia areas appears unlikely through most of the month. Periodically, the GFS and even ECMWF have flirted with the idea of some snowfall next week, but have since backed off.

CFSv2:

Status of Winter:

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15	Missing Count
1	2015-12-15	52.0	0
2	2001-12-15	51.3	0
3	1998-12-15	50.6	0
4	1953-12-15	47.4	0
5	1951-12-15	46.9	2
6	2021-12-15	45.4	0
7	2023-12-15	45.0	0
-	2012-12-15	45.0	0
-	2011-12-15	45.0	0
-	1991-12-15	45.0	0
8	1999-12-15	44.8	0
9	1923-12-15	44.7	0
10	1891-12-15	44.6	0

I hate seeing the 1990s (3 of them) in there. I hope it doesn't take long to break out of this pattern, however it's only been five years so maybe a ways to go. There will be good winters mixed in.

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the CFSv2 is right, patience remains in order. Genuine winter weather for the NYC and Philadelphia areas appears unlikely through most of the month. Periodically, the GFS and even ECMWF have flirted with the idea of some snowfall next week, but have since backed off.

CFSv2:

Status of Winter:

AI generated Don? I’ve tried to learn the various acronyms used on the forum, only to find out knowing what the letters are and what they mean is quite different.  T Blizzard in the New England forum posted that snow would occur in the present pattern, only, in Moose Fart Maine. Before suggesting a relocation for Anthony, I went to the look up and found something that may benefit all of us. Served with your favorite beverage it just might reset our apprehensions. Stay well, as always…

 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the CFSv2 is right, patience remains in order. Genuine winter weather for the NYC and Philadelphia areas appears unlikely through most of the month. Periodically, the GFS and even ECMWF have flirted with the idea of some snowfall next week, but have since backed off.

CFSv2:

Status of Winter:

That's funny Don.

I know I keep raising the fear of 97/98, however so far we are realizing the same results (warm and rainy with Pacific air domination regardless of storm tracks/blocking).

I may be oversimplifying, however, looking at the end of the GEFS Alaska has improved as well as the SW US and Greenland. I do not remember how the setup was that year, however I do not think we ever saw this improvement over Alaska that year. 

Therefore, holding out hope we follow an 82/83 or 15/16 winter rather than 97/98. At least improvements are on the ensembles even if it seems they are "pushed back".

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

The EPS looks a bit better than the GEFS. The trough off the west coast has migrated enough to commence pumping a West coast ridge. Also, Greenland heights are increasing.

Finally, although our surface temps are slightly above average, they ARE cold enough if we have an intense storm with the right track. 

[EastonSN+]

Kind of weak, however in the right phases.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EPS looks a bit better than the GEFS. The trough off the west coast has migrated enough to commence pumping a West coast ridge. Also, Greenland heights are increasing.

Finally, although our surface temps are slightly above average, they ARE cold enough if we have an intense storm with the right track. 

yeah the ENS are encouraging. seeing heights over AK recover as the trough retrogrades and also seeing hints of AN heights build into Hudson Bay

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City has unlocked another sad winter record, as its unprecedented streak without 1" or more snowfall reaches 671 days today. New York City will record its 686th consecutive day without 2" or more daily snowfall. Both streaks look likely to continue through at least the next week, if not longer.

Thanks!

Surprised the 80s and 90s are missing lol.

Don, is there a chart with precipitation anomalies? That would paint a picture of what drove the previous years snow drought.

I believe 72 through 74 were very dry?

 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, rclab said:

AI generated Don? I’ve tried to learn the various acronyms used on the forum, only to find out knowing what the letters are and what they mean is quite different.  T Blizzard in the New England forum posted that snow would occur in the present pattern, only, in Moose Fart Maine. Before suggesting a relocation for Anthony, I went to the look up and found something that may benefit all of us. Served with your favorite beverage it just might reset our apprehensions. Stay well, as always…

 

The milk carton was a template. The photo was taken in Patchogue during the January 2022 storm.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah the ENS are encouraging. seeing heights over AK recover as the trough retrogrades and also seeing hints of AN heights build into Hudson Bay

In addition, I believe Don provided statistics showing that blocking usually follows "blocky" Novembers. 

If the aforementioned comes to fruition, we can be in for one wild ride!

We really need a good snowy period for board moral lol. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

This has been the worst drought of my life..But they always say things even out to normal in weather. We'll see.

The last snow drought of this magnitude was in the early 70, so I am in the same boat as you lol.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

Surprised the 80s and 90s are missing lol.

Don, is there a chart with precipitation anomalies? That would paint a picture of what drove the previous years snow drought.

I believe 72 through 74 were very dry?

 

It's not easy to go 2 years without an inch of snow even in bad stretches like the late 90s 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's not easy to go 2 years without an inch of snow even in bad stretches like the late 90s 

Yup. However, these droughts are fairly rare when looking at the graph, so personally I am hopeful I do not experience one like this again. I was not alive for 72.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In addition, I believe Don provided statistics showing that blocking usually follows "blocky" Novembers. 

If the aforementioned comes to fruition, we can be in for one wild ride!

We really need a good snowy period for board moral lol. 

I expect that the breakdown in Atlantic blocking is temporary. It should redevelop in January. The broader pattern should also be transitioning during the first week of January.