December 2023

[North and West]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Actually I seem to recall numerous 60 degree days followed by snow.  However, in those cases, there was cold air behind the warm air to pull down for saccumulating snow to occur.  Gotta love the "sun angle" though...

Can we start putting the sun angle play in as a negative? They sunsets have just started their creep towards later (sunrises don't count). 

[coastalplainsnowman]

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The NYC metro area has become too litigious.   Seems (almost) nowhere allows skiing, skating, sledding...

Still holding on strong in Nassau.  As a kid, Bethpage Park was awesome for sledding.  Last time I was there about ten years ago it was still permitted, but restricted to certain roped off areas.  Pleasantly surprising that it even still happens considering that the complex hosts majors and soon a Ryder Cup (last time I was there the sledding was between the Black and Green courses.)  The backlash would probably be too much if they stopped it.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Actually I seem to recall numerous 60 degree days followed by snow.  However, in those cases, there was cold air behind the warm air to pull down for saccumulating snow to occur.  Gotta love the "sun angle" though...

That’s the key. 60°+ or 55°+ days have become much more common around snowstorms especially in January and February. But all such cases had a nearby source of cold air to tap. This current air mass is all Pacific in origin. It won’t get the job done this early in the season for more than mood flakes to some light accumulations near the coast.

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.

Whitestone was always like that too. The LGA Heat Island killed it

[lee59]

If conditions stay right tonight, this could be the coldest night of the season in many suburbs.

[psv88]

53 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If conditions stay right tonight, this could be the coldest night of the season in many suburbs.

I hit 21.9 on 11/26, doubt we beat that 

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I hit 21.9 on 11/26, doubt we beat that 

With the forecast calling for winds out of the SW, I don't see us getting anywhere near the coldest night of the season.

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I hit 21.9 on 11/26, doubt we beat that 

I was 22.3 on 11/25 which is also marginally my coldest temp so far this season. 22.5 this AM, coldest of the month. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

With the forecast calling for winds out of the SW, I don't see us getting anywhere near the coldest night of the season.

Yea that too. We won’t touch our November lows for at least the next week

[lee59]

 

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

With the forecast calling for winds out of the SW, I don't see us getting anywhere near the coldest night of the season.

I realize my quick drop in temperature this evening to 30 degrees, could come to a quick halt if conditions don't stay almost perfect. We shall see. 

[lee59]

Brookhaven National Labs already down to 27 not sure about Westhampton pine barron area. They could really drop, and again, if conditions stay perfect.

[Volcanic Winter]

I’m at 29 here currently, northern border of the NJ pine barrens down in Ocean Co.  

[kat5hurricane]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.

Yep. I'm in Whitestone right near the Throgs Neck Bridge, can see it right outside of my window, and it can be quite a different outcome in marginal situations than even as close as LaGuardia. It's like suburbia compared to a lot of Queens/Brooklyn.

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m at 29 here currently, northern border of the NJ pine barrens down in Ocean Co.  

Gabreski Airport (near Long Island pine barrens) at 26 degrees at 6PM. 

[lee59]

Got down to 29 here and now up to 30. So perfect conditions not panning out at this point.

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Gabreski Airport (near Long Island pine barrens) at 26 degrees at 6PM. 

Down to 27 here. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Final cooldown before the parakeets fly in. 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn milder tomorrow. Temperatures will top out in the balmy 50s across most of the region.

The mild weather will continue through the weekend. A significant rainstorm followed by a continuation of above normal temperatures is likely Sunday evening into Monday. A general 1"-3" of rain is possible. Strong winds and coastal flooding are likely.

No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. If anything, the warm risks for the closing 7-10 days of the month have increased. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around December 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -4.36 on December 13.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.548 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.6° (2.5° above normal).

 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Got down to 29 here and now up to 30. So perfect conditions not panning out at this point.

Yeah the winds kicked up out of the SW.  Image from both my stations:

 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Got down to 29 here and now up to 30. So perfect conditions not panning out at this point.

Far from perfect here on the south shore, still only 34 here. Wind off the water is going to do that though so not surprised 

[BoulderWX]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Far from perfect here on the south shore, still only 34 here. Wind off the water is going to do that though so not surprised 

Wait. 34 and not 33 or 31 ;) - literally who the hell cares if there is no precip associated. I love weather and storms but the constant talk about low temps when it literally doesn’t matter at all without precip is fascinating to me.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wait. 34 and not 33 or 31 - literally who the hell cares if there is no precip associated. I love weather and storms but the constant talk about low temps when it literally doesn’t matter at all without precip is fascinating to me.

So we should talk about wispy clouds instead?

[the_other_guy]

33 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wait. 34 and not 33 or 31 - literally who the hell cares if there is no precip associated. I love weather and storms but the constant talk about low temps when it literally doesn’t matter at all without precip is fascinating to me.

It is a weather forum in a season that is slowly disappearing.

It is like talking about old LIRR train cars as the new models slowly roll out. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

10 30 and 32 degrees in New City

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Wait. 34 and not 33 or 31 - literally who the hell cares if there is no precip associated. I love weather and storms but the constant talk about low temps when it literally doesn’t matter at all without precip is fascinating to me.

I find it interesting, but I’m weird. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I find it interesting, but I’m weird. 

You’re not alone I love temp stats too. And interesting temp anomalies. Like the pine barrens. 

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Christmas should be on the milder side but nothing too extreme compared to some recent years. The ensemble blend has mid 40s which is around a +3 to +4 in NYC. Highs could approach upper 40s to near 50° with a more defined low to our west which can be smoothed out by these ensemble means. 
 

Certainly frustrating that highs near 50 around Christmas needs to be qualified with a statement that it's "nothing too extreme compared to some recent years"!

[EastonSN+]

The trough moved slightly west in this depiction. Still needs a little improvement. The middle Atlantic can get a second snowfall with this look (even with above normal temps), as the storm track would be favorable and the storms seem to have intensity this year.

[EastonSN+]

Adding to my immediately preceding post, watching for the transition away from (a).

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Christmas should be on the milder side but nothing too extreme compared to some recent years. The ensemble blend has mid 40s which is around a +3 to +4 in NYC. Highs could approach upper 40s to near 50° with a more defined low to our west which can be smoothed out by these ensemble means. 
 

And on the flip side and equally as likely - highs can be much colder than that or even below average if we are on the north or west side of a low pressure. Still 9-10 days out plenty of time for storm tracks to change.  Pretty much have to get one of these clippers to track south of us next Sunday or Monday for a cold Christmas and potentially one with flakes in the air..