December 2023

[EastonSN+]

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the -ao has become useless along with the -nao without pac help 

It has ALWAYS been useless without the PAC help. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

somebody gotta fire up the grill with all the weenies being tossed around in this thread

Considering your screen name that’s an impressively courageous statement. Although lately, every day seems to be 07/04/Coney Island. Stay well, as always …..

[forkyfork]

this is just funny, sry to all who are offended 

[donsutherland1]

The mercury has now reached 60° in Central Park. That is the second such day this month. The frequency of December 60° has gradually but steadily increased.

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is just funny, sry to all who are offended 

Good afternoon forky. Not offended at all. Considering that look it’s good to know that the atmosphere is still in its prime. Stay well, as always …..

[North and West]

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

That’s wild. Really interesting information. I wonder how much is AGW/UHI/other cyclical factors, like coming out of the little ice age.


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[North and West]

Those are like +5 anomalies averaged over the week. Idk if you’d call it a torch but it’s certainly warm climate-wise.

Gotcha.

Just seems boring more than anything.


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[North and West]

this is just funny, sry to all who are offended 

What is it? TIA!


.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is just funny, sry to all who are offended 

It’s behaving like a “weak” El Niño though!!!

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

What is it? TIA!


.

A jet streak that will flood the CONUS with mild Pacific air.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

Bam. I think this is really important because a lot of the 30 year averages are smoothing Just how bad it has become in the last 15 years.

 

[North and West]

BTV is up +11.1 since the late 1800s into early 1900s in December. The record began at BTV later than NYC. So the first period didn’t align 100%.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	18.4	18.4
1913	27.0	27.0
1912	29.0	29.0
1911	31.0	31.0
1910	15.9	15.9
1909	21.3	21.3
1908	21.4	21.4
1907	27.0	27.0
1906	17.2	17.2
1905	28.3	28.3
1904	16.0	16.0
1903	20.7	20.7
1902	22.2	22.2
1901	26.1	26.1
1900	24.8	24.8
1899	30.9	30.9
1898	27.6	27.6
1897	27.3	27.3
1896	23.5	23.5
1895	29.0	29.0
1894	28.3	28.3
1893	22.1	22.1
1892	23.1	23.1
1891	9.0	9.0
1890	2.0	2.0
1889	7.5	7.5
1888	3.5	3.5
1887	-3.0	-3.0
1886	-3.0	-3.0
1885	6.5	6.5
1884	-10.0	-10.0

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	29.5	29.5
2022	31.6	31.6
2021	31.8	31.8
2020	31.3	31.3
2019	27.4	27.4
2018	26.8	26.8
2017	22.3	22.3
2016	29.0	29.0
2015	39.2	39.2
2014	30.0	30.0
2013	23.5	23.5
2012	30.8	30.8
2011	30.6	30.6

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[Volcanic Winter]

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

That’s wild. Really interesting information. I wonder how much is AGW/UHI/other cyclical factors, like coming out of the little ice age.


.

The LIA was thought to end roughly in 1850, though there’s varying opinions. 

The last time the earth had over 400ppm CO2 was in the Pliocene a few million years ago, and it was roughly ~3C warmer than pre-industrial averages. The trajectory we’re on is pretty clear from paleoclimate examples. 

Temperature follows CO2 and there are natural processes (volcanism and tectonics, as well as erosional processes) that influence CO2 over long timescales and can shift climate states. What’s happening the past century is unprecedented in the climate record in terms of speed and intensity, outside of dramatic instantaneous events like a large bolide impact. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

I only did the last 10 yrs not 12. That is how I got 40.14. So yes if you go back some 130 yrs. it definitely is substantially more mild. I was only comparing to what most folks have gone thru during our life time.

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

BTV is up +11.1 since the late 1800s into early 1900s in December. The record began at BTV later than NYC. So the first period didn’t align 100%.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	18.4	18.4
1913	27.0	27.0
1912	29.0	29.0
1911	31.0	31.0
1910	15.9	15.9
1909	21.3	21.3
1908	21.4	21.4
1907	27.0	27.0
1906	17.2	17.2
1905	28.3	28.3
1904	16.0	16.0
1903	20.7	20.7
1902	22.2	22.2
1901	26.1	26.1
1900	24.8	24.8
1899	30.9	30.9
1898	27.6	27.6
1897	27.3	27.3
1896	23.5	23.5
1895	29.0	29.0
1894	28.3	28.3
1893	22.1	22.1
1892	23.1	23.1
1891	9.0	9.0
1890	2.0	2.0
1889	7.5	7.5
1888	3.5	3.5
1887	-3.0	-3.0
1886	-3.0	-3.0
1885	6.5	6.5
1884	-10.0	-10.0

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	29.5	29.5
2022	31.6	31.6
2021	31.8	31.8
2020	31.3	31.3
2019	27.4	27.4
2018	26.8	26.8
2017	22.3	22.3
2016	29.0	29.0
2015	39.2	39.2
2014	30.0	30.0
2013	23.5	23.5
2012	30.8	30.8
2011	30.6	30.6

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°.

 

Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°.

 

Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

 

That does sound more reasonable. Where do you find this data?

[North and West]

The LIA was thought to end roughly in 1850, though there’s varying opinions. 
The last time the earth had over 400ppm CO2 was in the Pliocene a few million years ago, and it was roughly ~3C warmer than pre-industrial averages. The trajectory we’re on is pretty clear from paleoclimate examples. 
Temperature follows CO2 and there are natural processes (volcanism and tectonics, as well as erosional processes) that influence CO2 over long timescales and can shift climate states. What’s happening the past century is unprecedented in the climate record in terms of speed and intensity, outside of dramatic instantaneous events like a large bolide impact. 

Geez.

Literally the trade-off of having an advancing civilization, which allows us to instantaneously have these very pleasant conversations across long distances.

(I do have hope and believe that we will find a way to cleanse more carbon out of the air and sequester it during our lifetimes, even if it’s at the end.)


.

[the_other_guy]

16 minutes ago, North and West said:

Geez.

Literally the trade-off of having an advancing civilization, which allows us to instantaneously have these very pleasant conversations across long distances.

(I do have hope and believe that we will find a way to cleanse more carbon out of the air and sequester it during our lifetimes, even if it’s at the end.)


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well, that’s the debate of a lifetime and of a generation. No answers and probably no quick solutions.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this is just funny, sry to all who are offended 

Lol that's a strong El nino December for you. 

Interesting to look at and learn from.

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

That does sound more reasonable. Where do you find this data?

Xmacis. It's the same site Blue wave was using, but he included the first several years which had 90% missing data. So those average temperatures below 0 at Burlington were completely false to say the least. If you want to see how much temperatures have warmed or cooled over a certain time frame you set the parameter to have a regression line.

 

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

It has ALWAYS been useless without the PAC help. 

Pac > everything 

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

Metfan caved. We're screwed

[weathermedic]

.73 of rain so far at my station.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Metfan caved. We're screwed

This month we are. I will still pray.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

A lot of people here are jumping the gun, not only on the winter but on this month.

21 days left, and it looks slightly above average. It doesn’t look like a torch. Everything is in play when you see a bunch of 40s in the day over a 2 to 3 week period

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°.

 

Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

I scanned it very quickly and didn’t realize the data was missing. So  the most recent decade at BTV is +5.9 warmer than than their earliest 30 year December average. It would probably be closer to +6.7 warmer if they had a complete record that started around 1870 like the NYC comparison which was in a colder era than the earliest available. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	23.6	23.6
1921	20.3	20.3
1920	25.3	25.3
1919	17.2	17.2
1918	25.5	25.5
1917	12.2	12.2
1916	21.6	21.6
1915	25.1	25.1
1914	21.2	21.2
1913	27.0	27.0
1912	29.0	29.0
1911	31.0	31.0
1910	15.9	15.9
1909	21.3	21.3
1908	21.4	21.4
1907	27.0	27.0
1906	17.2	17.2
1905	28.3	28.3
1904	16.0	16.0
1903	20.7	20.7
1902	22.2	22.2
1901	26.1	26.1
1900	24.8	24.8
1899	30.9	30.9
1898	27.6	27.6
1897	27.3	27.3
1896	23.5	23.5
1895	29.0	29.0
1894	28.3	28.3
1893	22.1	22.1
1892	23.1	23.1

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	29.5	29.5
2022	31.6	31.6
2021	31.8	31.8
2020	31.3	31.3
2019	27.4	27.4
2018	26.8	26.8
2017	22.3	22.3
2016	29.0	29.0
2015	39.2	39.2
2014	30.0	30.0
2013	23.5	23.5
2012	30.8	30.8
2011	30.6	30.6

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A lot of people here are jumping the gun, not only on the winter but on this month.

21 days left, and it looks slightly above average. It doesn’t look like a torch. Everything is in play when you see a bunch of 40s in the day over a 2 to 3 week period

It's not only here but other forums also

[North and West]

This month we are. I will still pray.

My grandmother lit votives.


.

[North and West]

Metfan caved. We're screwed

They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining


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