December 2023

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There was a storm pre Christmas of 97 that was a snow threat but trended warmer as we got closer. I think it started as a little sleet. Then we had that slushy snow around the 28th and a frigid new years eve before hitting 70 a few days later

Yeah, there are so many nuances that make each winter unique. Perhaps November and December were flipped as compared to this year. Wasn't December 1997 cloud cover day count and precip much higher?

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, there are so many nuances that make each winter unique. Perhaps November and December were flipped as compared to this year. Wasn't December 1997 cloud cover day count and precip much higher?

It ended up very average. Cool and dry to warm and wet but a very cold new years...I think mid teens when the ball dropped. Sort of like how last year had that 2 day cold snap around Christmas 

[WX-PA]

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

[North and West]

Increasing signs of a torch Xmas to New Years

Honest question, how is this a torch? It looks dull and seasonable more than anything.

It’s not cold, it’s not snow, and it’s not memorable.

(You did say signs, so I’m assuming it’s going to trend warmer?)




.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Blue Dream said:

Warm trolls are out in full force this morning 

Exactly 

Low amp 6 isn't warm at all

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

Maybe this winter will be warmer

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Honest question, how is this a torch? It looks dull and seasonable more than anything.

It’s not cold, it’s not snow, and it’s not memorable.

(You did say signs, so I’m assuming it’s going to trend warmer?)




.

10-14 days away

[North and West]

Maybe this winter will be warmer

That made me legitimately laugh out loud.


.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

It always happens in early winter

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe this winter will be warmer

LOL

No indication of that 

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Honest question, how is this a torch? It looks dull and seasonable more than anything.

It’s not cold, it’s not snow, and it’s not memorable.

(You did say signs, so I’m assuming it’s going to trend warmer?)




.

Normal high today in NYC is 47..it's not a torch

[MJO812]

We are going into 7 and 8

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are going into 7 and 8

You want snow you are gonna have to head to the catskillls. Above 1500’ they aren’t doing bad and about to get another 6”+

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Why are we freakin hyping 97-98?..lol..it didn't snow at all in the winter months..I mean I think some here are jumping the gun.

I do not see anyone hyping 97/98, merely comparing that year to this year. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

All that red you are showing, what is the actual departure for the last week of December?

It’s tough to use the guidance that far out for exact temperatures and departures. We mostly use it to guess where the areas of above and below normal will be. Like the charts that the CPC puts out each day. Plus we also use it to compare how that forecast period is changing in relation to previous runs. But we know that in the past when we had similar projected 500 mb patterns in late December with fast Pacific flow the warmer days in NYC had highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to around 40. The average split in NYC for late December is 42/32. So that means the warmest days during the period can be over +10. And probably a string of other days near +3 to +5. 

[vegan_edible]

somebody gotta fire up the grill with all the weenies being tossed around in this thread

[SACRUS]

Down to 39 nwo to 63,  

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Another reason to favor the slower pattern transition (first week of January vs. last week of December): The AO is now forecast to go positive and remain positive through the remainder of the 2-week period ending December 24.

[bluewave]

All that -AO did was trap mild Pacific air underneath.

[Allsnow]

Yeah, the -ao has become useless along with the -nao without pac help 

[the_other_guy]

just left the ice-skating rink and for a second you’re fooled its winter. pouring rain and 55. I just thought about all those times that a heavy snowstorm would start with a burst of heavy snow.

 

What a change to our Decembers in my thus far short lifetime. Like October/November weather now

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the -ao has become useless along with the -nao without pac help 

I really think you guys dig into the nitty-gritty a little bit too much. December is just 5 to 10° warmer than it used to be. the normals kind of skew it because it’s over a 30 year period, but that’s where we are at now. i’m looking at those mid 40s Christmas week and that’s pretty normal now. plus 5-10. That isn’t even a torch anymore.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

I really think you guys dig into the nitty-gritty a little bit too much. December is just 5 to 10° warmer than it used to be. the normals kind of skew it because it’s over a 30 year period, but that’s where we are at now. i’m looking at those mid 40s Christmas week and that’s pretty normal now. plus 5-10. That isn’t even a torch anymore.

That's not new. Low 40s is average for Christmas as it's always been

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the -ao has become useless along with the -nao without pac help 

Today, we increasingly need all the teleconnections to work together. The extent and magnitude of cold available to be tapped is less than it was 30 or more years ago. Thus, some of the earlier analogs some utilize should only be used with caution and adjustment to the contemporary context.

[Volcanic Winter]

I mean we want to see snow, most of us, right? The point is even if temperatures aren’t horrifically warm (and it still may progress that way as the Pac freight train sets up, I gather), we’re still in a situation where snow is unlikely as things stand. A little above normal without a good, cold airmass anywhere on the continent in Dec still before peak winter climo isn’t going to do us any favors even for a storm with a good track. 
 

Perhaps it’s possible still if exceedingly lucky, (especially the northern part of the sub forum) it’s just more odds against us than for us. 
 

And no, it doesn’t always snow in Dec. I don’t think that does much to assuage disappointment if we’re staring down an unfavorable period (yet again). I’d rather have the opportunity and miss than have no opportunity at all, but that is merely my perspective. 

[lee59]

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I really think you guys dig into the nitty-gritty a little bit too much. December is just 5 to 10° warmer than it used to be. the normals kind of skew it because it’s over a 30 year period, but that’s where we are at now. i’m looking at those mid 40s Christmas week and that’s pretty normal now. plus 5-10. That isn’t even a torch anymore.

I think 5-10 degrees is a little much. For example during the 1990s some 30 years ago, December averaged 39.5 and the last 10 years, December has averaged 40.14.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I think 5-10 degrees is a little much. For example during the 1990s some 30 years ago, December averaged 39.5 and the last 10 years, December has averaged 40.14.

The last decade has been about 6.6° warmer than the late 1800s in December. So we currently have the same December temperatures that used to be common in Virginia in the late 1800s.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	34.1	34.1
1900	36.2	36.2
1899	38.1	38.1
1898	35.0	35.0
1897	38.6	38.6
1896	34.4	34.4
1895	38.4	38.4
1894	36.7	36.7
1893	34.9	34.9
1892	32.2	32.2
1891	42.5	42.5
1890	30.0	30.0
1889	39.7	39.7
1888	34.7	34.7
1887	33.4	33.4
1886	29.7	29.7
1885	35.3	35.3
1884	33.6	33.6
1883	31.6	31.6
1882	30.6	30.6
1881	39.0	39.0
1880	26.4	26.4
1879	36.8	36.8
1878	33.2	33.2
1877	37.4	37.4
1876	25.0	25.0
1875	33.4	33.4
1874	34.4	34.4
1873	36.7	36.7
1872	26.7	26.7
1871	29.0	29.0

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	40.7	40.7
2022	38.5	38.5
2021	43.8	43.8
2020	39.2	39.2
2019	38.3	38.3
2018	40.1	40.1
2017	35.0	35.0
2016	38.3	38.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.5	40.5
2013	38.5	38.5
2012	41.5	41.5
2011	43.3	43.3

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

 

Highs:

EWR:  72 (1946)
NYC: 70 (1946)
LGA: 70 (1946)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1968)
NYC: 3 (1876)
LGA: 9 (1968)

Historical:

 

1699 - A severe ice storm hit Boston, MA, causing much damage to orchards. (The Weather Channel)

1946 - The temperature at New York City soared to 70 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1949 - The barometric pressure at Las Vegas, NV, reached a record low reading of 29.17 inches (987.8 millibars). (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought high winds to the eastern slopes of the Northern and Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 97 mph at Mines Peak CO. In Wyoming, up to a foot of snow blanketed the Teton Village Ski Resort, northwest of Jackson. Strong chinook winds in the Central High Plains Region, gusting to 61 mph at Scottsbluff NE, warmed temperatures to near 70 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Ohio ranged up to 14 inches at Harpersfield, and totals in western New York State ranged up to 14 inches at Sodus. In the snowbelt of Upper Michigan, the Ontonogon area reported two feet of snow in two days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow fell across the northern and central mountains of Colorado, with 24 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. Six to twelve inches of snow fell in the Denver and Boulder area delaying plane flights and snarling traffic. Heavy snow also spread across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Winner SD received 11 inches of snow, and more than ten inches of snow was reported north of Sioux City IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992 - A slow-moving Nor'easter storm batters the northeast U.S. coast killing 19 people.

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Honest question, how is this a torch? It looks dull and seasonable more than anything.

It’s not cold, it’s not snow, and it’s not memorable.

(You did say signs, so I’m assuming it’s going to trend warmer?)




.

Those are like +5 anomalies averaged over the week. Idk if you’d call it a torch but it’s certainly warm climate-wise.