December 2023

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The 90s were warm with less snow in general, was he posting back then or only this century?

I remember him back to around 2000 on accuweather (He was on the tv show weather world prior to that).  His first big bust was 2001-02 calling for a flip to cold and snowy around Christmas time which never came

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

One other point about the whole snow in December discussion.  For all the good reasons given here, there's also the whole thing about *where we live.*  For anyone on here who's not still in school/college, especially nearish to the coast: growing up how many snow days did you have in your lifetime in December?  

[North and West]

In Florida the past few days. 74° and sunny right now, going to 80° today.

Flying home tonight prior to the storm. Beautiful here. I understand why people snowbird.


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[North and West]

Best part of these low snow seasons and warm spells is that JB comes off looking more and more like a baffoon to his climate change denial audience. 

I really don’t understand why people revel in always being warm or always insisting the next ice age is right around the corner.

It *feels* like it’s the social media driver of our id that subconsciously insists that we vanquish our dissenters.


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[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

I really don’t understand why people revel in always being warm or always insisting the next ice age is right around the corner.

It *feels* like it’s the social media driver of our id that subconsciously insists that we vanquish our dissenters.


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Boring weather doesn't get clicks 

[WX-PA]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I really don’t understand why people revel in always being warm or always insisting the next ice age is right around the corner.

It *feels* like it’s the social media driver of our id that subconsciously insists that we vanquish our dissenters.


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In the end what does it matter.Weather is weather. I like every season and every type of weather. Of course snow made me get into it as a child(Christmas eve blizzard of 66).

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

I really don’t understand why people revel in always being warm or always insisting the next ice age is right around the corner.

It *feels* like it’s the social media driver of our id that subconsciously insists that we vanquish our dissenters.


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There are a lot of people pushing political agendas a well unfortunately.

[North and West]

Boring weather doesn't get clicks 

And for a lot of people, such as JB and others, being sensational pays the bills.


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[North and West]

There are a lot of people pushing political agendas a well unfortunately.

If not that, it’s a career for some, so it pays the bills.


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[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

And for a lot of people, such as JB and others, being sensational pays the bills.


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The scary part is I can't tell if he's doing it for the clicks or if he really believes what he spews. 

[forkyfork]

dec 82 had a 2-4" event

[psv88]

Beautiful day! 58 and sunny in eastern Suffolk 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

dec 82 had a 2-4" event

Hopefully we can do that this year, plenty of time and a low amount.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully we can do that this year, plenty of time and a low amount.

we couldn't do it in a nina last dec with a negative ao and nao

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, WX-PA said:

You see this is the problem with this forum. Bluewave is vey smart but does have a warm bias. Posting red maps over and over again doesn't mean it's not going to snow anymore. LOL..It's a December strong nino..they all turn out mild and snowless.No big surprise here.Maybe we'll see something in January, February and March. 

Bluewave has no bias imo. 

Snowski does this stuff every year lol 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we couldn't do it in a nina last dec with a negative ao and nao

The RNA was way too deep and the NAO was south based. Not a favorable pattern.

[vegan_edible]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we couldn't do it in a nina last dec with a negative ao and nao

i picked up like 1.2" last december, i think on the 11th, with some little evening accumulation in white plains

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

The scary part is I can't tell if he's doing it for the clicks or if he really believes what he spews. 

He's lost the energy audience because they've been burned by him calling 55 of the past 2 cold shots.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i picked up like 1.2" last december, i think on the 11th, with some little evening accumulation in white plains

December 1888 had a deep RNA and South Based NAO and CPK was shut out. Not unheard of.

[Stormlover74]

I seem to recall an event in December 86 where the interior cashed in but closer to the coast we had nothing. It was also a very warm rainy Christmas eve/day that year. But 3rd week of January thru March was very solid 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

In Florida the past few days. 74° and sunny right now, going to 80° today.

Flying home tonight prior to the storm. Beautiful here. I understand why people snowbird.


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LOVE DAYTONA! 

[michsnowfreak]

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters).

The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol.

Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022)

 – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover
1870s- 31.1F - 32.9”
1880s- 30.6F - 32.4”
1890s- 33.4F - 35.7”
1900s- 32.4F - 29.0”
1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days
1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days
1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days
1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days
1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days
1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days
1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days
1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days
1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 
2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days
2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

[North and West]

LOVE DAYTONA! 

Close! We were there for a bit yesterday. Staying in New Smyrna Beach.




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[uofmiami]

 

[North and West]

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters).
The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol.
Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022)
 – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover
1870s- 31.1F - 32.9”
1880s- 30.6F - 32.4”
1890s- 33.4F - 35.7”
1900s- 32.4F - 29.0”
1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days
1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days
1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days
1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days
1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days
1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days
1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days
1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days
1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 
2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days
2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

I love the retro Tigers logo!


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[North and West]

 

He’s a very smart poster. Always an interesting read.


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[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters).

The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol.

Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022)

 – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover
1870s- 31.1F - 32.9”
1880s- 30.6F - 32.4”
1890s- 33.4F - 35.7”
1900s- 32.4F - 29.0”
1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days
1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days
1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days
1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days
1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days
1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days
1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days
1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days
1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 
2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days
2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

The volatility in the snowfall has been well documented since the 90s in terms of more all or nothing snowfall seasons especially at the Long Island stations to the east like Islip. The drop  in snowfall began with the 18-19 season. So this is a relatively recent down turn lasting only about 5 years. The previous 5 year period was among the snowiest on record especially on Long Island. 

The current warm winter streak has been unprecedented in the entire record. We have never experienced 8 warmer than normal winters in a row with so many months landing in the top 10 warmest. Also some of the individual monthly records like the +13.3 December 2015 and the 80° at Newark in February 2018 has never happened before. So the warmth has been remarkable for both the departures and the actual temperatures. Plus the departures are against the warmer climate period since the 90s.
 

 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

I love the retro Tigers logo!


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14 minutes ago, North and West said:

He’s a very smart poster. Always an interesting read.


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Thanks guys!  I usually wear something with the retro logo when I go to Tigers games.

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im a stats person so I was curious to run some stats on nyc in xmacis after reading some posts acting like winter has just abruptly disappeared in nyc from the days of yore, since that certainly hasn’t been the case in Detroit (ie 2010s winters were the snowiest decade on record, 4th most snowcovered decade on record, and winters 4th warmest decade on record for winters).

The 2010s were nyc snowiest decade on record. The 1950s were both the least snowiest AND least snow covered. The 1990s were the warmest decade of winters, with the 2010s 2nd. Cant use 2020s data til 2020s have finished lol.

Winters have warmed in nyc, but they are not disappearing by any means. Nyc is not a super snowy/wintry place to begin with. Despite grandpa probably telling you there was always snow at Christmas in nyc when he was a boy, the historical probability of a white Christmas Is 14% (16 of 111 years 1912 – 2022)

 – avg DJF temp – avg snowfall – avg days w/ 1”+ snowcover
1870s- 31.1F - 32.9”
1880s- 30.6F - 32.4”
1890s- 33.4F - 35.7”
1900s- 32.4F - 29.0”
1910s- 32.4F - 30.1” – 29 days
1920s- 32.5F - 29.2” – 29 days
1930s- 34.4F - 24.1” – 21 days
1940s- 32.9F - 32.3” – 32 days
1950s- 35.3F - 21.3” – 15 days
1960s- 33.2F - 31.1” – 28 days
1970s- 33.3F - 22.2” – 25 days
1980s- 34.9F - 19.9” – 19 days
1990s- 36.4F - 23.8” – 20 days 
2000s- 35.5F - 29.2” – 20 days
2010s- 36.1F - 36.9” – 27 days

Thanks for this, also proves that the 90s were really warm and the 80s were not "frigid".

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The volatility in the snowfall has been well documented since the 90s in terms of more all or nothing snowfall seasons especially at the Long Island stations to the east like Islip. The drop  in snowfall began with the 18-19 season. So this is a relatively recent down turn lasting only about 5 years. The previous 5 year period was among the snowiest on record especially on Long Island. 

The current warm winter streak has been unprecedented in the entire record. We have never experienced 8 warmer than normal winters in a row with so many months landing in the top 10 warmest. Also some of the individual monthly records like the +13.3 December 2015 and the 80° at Newark in February 2018 has never happened before. So the warmth has been remarkable for both the departures and the actual temperatures. Plus the departures are against the warmer climate period since the 90s.
 

 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

I was just posting decadal stats for a perspective of the good and the bad. I dont know what is/isnt well-documented for you guys as I dont live in nyc & only browse other subforums (lakes is my sub) when its boring (and it is boring now!). My interest was just piqued enough to check stats after the tone of some posts here recently lol. Theres definitely more of a winter warming trend in Nyc than Detroit (Detroit winters have only warmed 2.0F since 1870 and 1.3F the last 100 years, while snowfall has increased some...NYC winters have warmed 5.4F since 1870 and 3.5F the last 100 years), but since nyc has never been a climate of sustained winter anyway, the warmer temps and increased moisture may continue to be a boon to snowlovers during the feast years.

 

For snowlovers, no more brutal a stretch was seen for NYC than this one, 6 consecutive sub-20" winters:

1949-1950: 14.0    
1950-1951: 9.3    
1951-1952: 19.7    
1952-1953: 15.1    
1953-1954: 15.8    
1954-1955: 11.5

 

White Christmases since 1912:

1912, 1917, 1919, 1929, 1930, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1995, 2009.

Interesting that...

5 of 33 Christmases from 1912-1944 were white (15%)

8 of 22 Christmases from 1945-1966 were white (36%)

3 of 56 Christmases from 1967-2022 were white (5%)

So the 14% probability of a white christmas is actually probably skewed high from an unsually good period 1945-66.