December 2023

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

he’s looking at charts and posting what he sees. 

That’s one of the weaknesses with the entire online meteorological community on twitter. We really have to dig into why the models are showing a particular outcome and try to anticipate where the bias lies. My focus has been trying to identify model biases and taking things from there. That’s the main reason I have been anticipating warmer risks from mid to late December than any of the models were showing. Big meteorology firms don’t realize how much money they are leaving on the table by just relying on the actual long range model output without trying to anticipate what the model errors are.

[WX-PA]

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

stop this bs. this is why people are so turned off by this forum.

 

He doesn’t owe an apology to anybody. he’s looking at charts and posting what he sees. You already writing off Winter until January 15 like you have a clue.

Should I call you out if we get snow on January 3?

 

Ridiculous

He attacked certain posters the other day.   There's a difference.   

[Brasiluvsnow]

no apologies necessary MJO ,,,everyone should just stick to the maps, charts, predictions and explanations fellas as the pettiness really gets ugly. Now back to weather 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 30 overnight now to 50.   Clouds coming in, rain Sun-Mon.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1966)
NYC: 66 (1966)
LGA: 66 (1966)


Lows:

EWR:  12 (1934)
NYC:  7 (1876)
LGA: 13 (1968)

 

Historical:

 

1786 - A second great snowstorm in just five days brought another 15 inches of snow to Morristown NJ, on top of the eight inches which fell on the 7th and 8th, and the 18 inches which fell on the 4th and 5th. The total snowfall for the week was thus 41 inches. New Haven CT received 17 inches of new snow in the storm. Up to four four feet of snow covered the ground in eastern Massachusetts following the storms. (9th-10th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1917 - A severe winter storm struck the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. It produced 25 inches of snow and wind gusts to 78 mph at Buffalo NY. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Vevay IND, with drifts fourteen feet high. By the 16th of the month people could walk across the frozen Ohio River from Vavey into Kentucky. (8th-9th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1917: A severe winter storm struck the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. It produced 25 inches of snow and wind gusts to 78 mph at Buffalo NY. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Vevay Indiana, with drifts fourteen feet high.

1987 - The fifth storm in nine days kept the northwestern U.S. wet and windy. Winds along the coast of Washington gusted to 75 mph at Oceans Shores and at Hoquiam, and the northern and central coastal mountains of Oregon were drenched with three inches of rain in ten hours, flooding some rivers. Snowfall totals in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State ranged up to 36 inches in the Methow Valley. High winds in Oregon blew a tree onto a moving automobile killing three persons and injuring two others at Mill City. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm blanketed the Southern and Central Appalachians with up to ten inches of snow. Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. bringing subzero cold to Minnesota and North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A strong storm produced wind gusts of 40 to 65 mph from the Alaska Peninsula to the North Gulf Coast of Alaska. Southeasterly winds gusted to 75 mph in the Anchorage hillside. Gusty winds associated with a strong cold front caused a power outage across much of the island of Hawaii. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[psv88]

Beautiful day to go to the riverhead Aquarium with the kids 

[SACRUS]

 

Heaviest rain since Nov 21-22 coming Sunday /overnihght into Monday.  

[the_other_guy]

47 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

this is what I’ve been saying for years. People have been looking to a Nino to save us from something or reset the bar. Ninos are bad for us.  And many of us believe there is no bar to reset. This is new normal. Not some switch that 2015 accidentally left on

[coastalplainsnowman]

57 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

On the bright side, the biggest daily total later that winter, other than 1966, which I couldn't find, is as follows.  Statistically speaking, it seems that the last two months of meteorlogical winter for these winters are, at worst, no worse than average in terms of still seeing a big snowfall.  Maybe even better than average odds?  I'd be ok with the 2016 result lol.

1973: 1.8

1983:  12.5 (seems low)

1987:  8.1"

1998: 5.0"

2016: 27.3

 

[MANDA]

After looking at all the overnight data I think it is safe to say we have started to

 

 

I am not at all surprised.  The signal has been there for a lackluster December.  Raging Pacific Jet just ain't gonna cut it for cold and decent snow in the east.  Pattern needs to relax and reshuffle and that is not likely to happen before the end of the month. 

December = shot.

[psv88]

Beautiful 54 now and sun poking through. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

Bingo. This is super important. If those years during a much cooler period were snowless, then what hope do we have now. I’m sticking to my guns if anything happens it’s in the Jan 15-Feb 15 period 

[NittanyWx]

The h5 charts at the end of the EC Ens don't look that much different from what the EC weeklies were showing in that post Christmas time period.

 

Aleutian low, +EPO, +PNA but no source air.  Flagged it at the time that this wasnt gonna be the cold look people thought it would be, but if that ends up rolling forward it's actually a pretty decent forecast from the weeklies.

 

 

[Eduardo]

15 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

This is great! I also remember @jm1220 as one of the “OG’s” there as well. He was a Penn Stater with access to a premium AccuWx account we poors couldn’t afford, but he gave us glimpses into what they were thinking. Somehow, I snagged the name “SnowLover” on both the Bill Evan’s and TriState boards.  Glad to see that you all are doing well!

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

Thank you for this.

A few pages ago I posted the incredibly warm daily temps for 1888. Just one year in a colder background state however it shows that warm winters are not new. I get that we are in an interesting streak, however we have had 5 year warm streaks before. 

Don posted the 500mb plot for that December (1888) and guess what, it had a deep west coast trough and a SOUTH BASED NAO like the last 2 Decembers, yet somehow there is a theory that what happened last December was new and scary.

As for strong El Ninos Decembers you are 100% correct. This JUST happened in 2015 yet somehow posters are acting like this is new. Posters would have thought snow was extinct after the 97/98 super Nino season when we had repetitive perfect benchmark tracks yet all were rain due to the continent being flooded with PAC air (odd, just like now but over 20 years ago).

I believe what would help this forum are December stats for weak, moderate and strong El Ninos to show they are not alike. We want weak El ninos with warm departures in the central Pacific. Not strong El ninos for wall to wall winters.

Yet, our posts will be ignored and certain posters who are not professionals will throw out ensembles and predict victory when all they are doing is riding the coattails of great posters like Bluewave. Or worst yet claim winters as we knew them are over like there are statistics to prove this theory.

2000 through 2018 skewed a lot of posters perception of reality. 1970 through 1999 were a joke for snowfall outside of a couple of years. Also, those who claim the 80s were FRIGID need to go back and look as the daily temperatures. Sure there were some incredibly cold outbreaks, but that JUST happened in 2013/2014 and 2014/2015.

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

What were the follow months like in those years JFM? Just curious.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

What were the follow months like in those years JFM? Just curious.

They range from nothing to great. We could see 1 to 30"

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

The h5 charts at the end of the EC Ens don't look that much different from what the EC weeklies were showing in that post Christmas time period.

 

Aleutian low, +EPO, +PNA but no source air.  Flagged it at the time that this wasnt gonna be the cold look people thought it would be, but if that ends up rolling forward it's actually a pretty decent forecast from the weeklies.

 

 

Thanks! Great professional post with details.

Also on a bright note, DC may actually get a small accumulation from this upcoming event. Very small chance however good for them.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is great! I also remember @jm1220 as one of the “OG’s” there as well. He was a Penn Stater with access to a premium AccuWx account we poors couldn’t afford, but he gave us glimpses into what they were thinking. Somehow, I snagged the name “SnowLover” on both the Bill Evan’s and TriState boards.  Glad to see that you all are doing well!

I still have the access!  

However I haven’t checked that site out in forever. Way better free tools out there now. I also obsessed over JB back then, haven’t cared what he’s had to say in the same just about forever. 

[EastonSN+]

MJO does not have to apologize for anything.

If he does, do posters who predict warm and no snow followed by snow have to apologize lol?

Public forum for novice weather fans and professionals, not a closed forum where only professional Mets can post (although I would love to have this option to view, professional opinions without the noise).

[the_other_guy]

33 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

On the bright side, the biggest daily total later that winter, other than 1966, which I couldn't find, is as follows.  Statistically speaking, it seems that the last two months of meteorlogical winter for these winters are, at worst, no worse than average in terms of still seeing a big snowfall.  Maybe even better than average odds?  I'd be ok with the 2016 result lol.

1973: 1.8

1983:  12.5 (seems low)

1987:  8.1"

1998: 5.0"

2016: 27.3

 

and 2016 was the anomaly with the one blizzard. Ironically, the strength of that blizzard driven off warmer waters and stronger storms.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

and 2016 was the anomaly with the one blizzard. Ironically, the strength of that blizzard driven off warmer waters and stronger storms.

Um 83?

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s another pretty key difference between the bad ninos and good ninos. The bad ninos have the huge NPac low in the gulf of Alaska and not over the Aleutians. The good winters have an Aleutian low. And that’s what’s progged for this awful horrible winter ending torch coming up…

Professional post from the MA forum. Something to watch for direction of this winter other than hyper focus on the MJO.

[Volcanic Winter]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! Great professional post with details.

Also on a bright note, DC may actually get a small accumulation from this upcoming event. Very small chance however good for them.

They need it. Happy for them if it works out. 

[WX-PA]

25 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

What were the follow months like in those years JFM? Just curious.

January and Feb 1966..snowy and cold,  Jan-March 1973, snowless, Feb 1983 big blizzard, Jan-March 87, average cold and snow, Jan - March 98..snow in March, rest of the winter a shutout..Jan 2016, biggest snowstorm in NYC history.

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I still have the access!  

However I haven’t checked that site out in forever. Way better free tools out there now. I also obsessed over JB back then, haven’t cared what he’s had to say in the same just about forever. 

Golden age of Accu pro and the JB videos, his and the count pointer count show 

[MJO812]

Gfs doesn't look like a torch at all

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Golden age of Accu pro and the JB videos, his and the count pointer count show 

Best part of these low snow seasons and warm spells is that JB comes off looking more and more like a baffoon to his climate change denial audience. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best part of these low snow seasons and warm spells is that JB comes off looking more and more like a baffoon to his climate change denial audience. 

The 90s were warm with less snow in general, was he posting back then or only this century?