December 2023

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 66 (1980)
NYC: 65 (1927)
LGA: 64 (1951)


Lows:

 

EWR: 14 (1934)
NYC: 4 (1900)
LGA: 18 (1976)

Historical:

 

1892 - A tremendous ice fall occurred at Gay Hill, TX. Ice averaged four to six inches in diameter. (David Ludlum)

 

1935: From the Monthly Weather Review for December 1935, "The outstanding flood of December 1935 was the record-breaking overflow of Buffalo and White Oak Bayous at Houston, Texas on the 8 and 9th. This destructive flood was caused by excessive rainfall over Harris County, Texas during a 42 hour period on the 6th, 7th, 8th, with amounts ranging from 5.50 inches at Houston" to 16.49 inches at the Humble Oil Company in the northwestern part of Harris County.

1938 - The temperature at La Mesa, CA, soared to 108 degrees to set a U.S. record for the month of December. (The Weather Channel)

1963 - Lightning caused the crash of a jet airliner killing 81 persons at Elkton, MD. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. continued to produce high winds along the coast, and heavy snow blanketed parts of the western U.S. Snowfall totals in the mountains of western Nevada ranged up to 18 inches at Heavenly Valley, and near the Boreal Ski Resort, and winds at Reno NV gusted to 56 mph. Thunderstorms over southern Florida deluged the Florida Keys with up to five inches of rain. Strong winds, gusting to 48 mph at Gage OK, ushered wintry weather into the Central High Plains. Goodland KS, which one day earlier was 63 degrees, was blanketed with two inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds buffeted southern California, with gusts to 92 mph reported at Laguna Peak. The high winds unroofed buildings, and downed trees and power lines, igniting five major fires, and numerous smaller ones. Damage was estimated at 15 to 20 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and freezing rain across much of the Atlantic Coast Region, from Georgia to New Jersey. Snowfall totals ranged up to seven inches, at Stanton VA and Tobacco MD. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the mountains of northern Georgia. More than one hundred auto accidents were reported in Gwinnett County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

 

 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

 

Akeem!  What's up.   Merry Torchmas lol

[qg_omega]

So easy to torch these days vs going below normal, sad times

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Exactly. Mild, boring, and tranquil doesn’t get it done.


.

Tranquil? The city is about to get drenched with 2-3 inches of rain. I believe someone mentioned that it would be dry in December last month because we already received 40 inches of rain. 

[North and West]

Tranquil? The city is about to get drenched with 2-3 inches of rain. I believe someone mentioned that it would be dry in December last month because we already received 40 inches of rain. 

I mean the last few weeks. It’s been, as my teenagers would say, mid.


.

[Allsnow]

Weeklies kick the can into January now…

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

This place has gotten pretty toxic, I only stick around because I don’t know where else to go. Bring back the channel 7 forum.


.

Hahaha I don’t know if I’d go that far.  That place wasn’t exactly devoid of bickering.  There was someone named something like “hani345” who would occasionally (and I think inadvertently) ignite flame wars by saying things like “Bill I’m scared the wind is going to blow my house down.”

But I do miss that board as well.  I prob wouldn’t have been on TriState, Eastern, or here were it not for that community.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies kick the can into January now…

Don't they come out Mon and Thur?

[wdrag]

At 8PM I probably will start a thread on the storm based on the watches already posted.  Need some more time to digest the ensembles and add my primary concern.  Til later, Walt

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Don't they come out Mon and Thur?

They run every day now 

[tristateweatherFB]

12 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Hahaha I don’t know if I’d go that far.  That place wasn’t exactly devoid of bickering.  There was someone named something like “hani345” who would occasionally (and I think inadvertently) ignite flame wars by saying things like “Bill I’m scared the wind is going to blow my house down.”

But I do miss that board as well.  I prob wouldn’t have been on TriState, Eastern, or here were it not for that community.

I remember hani.  He would say only bill answer.  
then we developed tristate forums.  Then fb which sandy blew us up.  380k ppl make things interesting.  
As I said on our patreon platform. Pms. Texts etc etc watch that epo!  I don’t care if we have a trof over the east.  If we have a negative nao this early.  Means nothing if there is no cold air source.  Remember normal temps are in the 40s.  We need colder than normal weather.  Epo being positive means we not in a good position to cash in.  Wait until January.  Breathe everyone things will get there. I know just like in real life people are impatient. They want results! Now!  Doesnt work that way 

[coastalplainsnowman]

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

So easy to torch these days vs going below normal, sad times

We have to have at least one 60 degree day the week leading up to Christmas, so everything was bound to align for that eventually.

[nj08822]

Certain posters here seem to care more about "told you so" instead of analysis and commentary.  For people like me who are trying to learn and be informed, it makes this forum close to unreadable.

[Eduardo]

6 minutes ago, nj08822 said:

Certain posters here seem to care more about "told you so" instead of analysis and commentary.  For people like me who are trying to learn and be informed, it makes this forum close to unreadable.

It’s partly a matter of perspective.  I agree that the ad hominem BS gets annoying (i.e., the reflexive weenie’ ing). But, depending on how you view it, the substantive debate between more informed posters can provide some really fertile ground for learning and developing your own ideas.
 

The “weenie culture” has always been an important part of the fabric as well. I don’t think of myself as one, but I also don’t necessarily view is as a pejorative, especially when applied to members like @MJO812/metfan who seem to wear that label proudly.  Like I’ve said before, this place wouldn’t be as fun without him.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

 

So I get exposed to a lot of different weather views in the space I work in and there were a lot of meteorologists and social mediarologists trying to downplay Nino influences this month.

 

I was forwarded some stuff from:  Direct Weather, Joe Bastardi, BAMWX, Mark Margavage, Atmospheric G2 and several other sources that were pumping up cold risk in the back half of December after a mild start.  

 

AG2 had some tweets comparing this to 09-10 because the October VP200 pattern wasn't canonical Nino and therefore December wouldn't be.

 

It was out there.  Maybe not here on this forum, but a surprising amount of folks tried to reinvent the wheel on their December US forecasts amid uncooperative signals left and right

One of the weaknesses of the entire weather forecast industry right now is how much money they are spending on high tech approaches when several low tech approaches discussed in these threads are yielding better forecast results for a fraction of the cost. But the people running those big organizations get stuck in a very regimented way of thinking about how to recruit talent. They don’t realize how much money they are leaving on the table. 

[NittanyWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They don’t realize how much money they are leaving on the table. 

Long may this continue.   This is an opportunity for market participants.

[NittanyWx]

53 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

I remember hani.  He would say only bill answer.  
then we developed tristate forums.  Then fb which sandy blew us up.  380k ppl make things interesting.  
As I said on our patreon platform. Pms. Texts etc etc watch that epo!  I don’t care if we have a trof over the east.  If we have a negative nao this early.  Means nothing if there is no cold air source.  Remember normal temps are in the 40s.  We need colder than normal weather.  Epo being positive means we not in a good position to cash in.  Wait until January.  Breathe everyone things will get there. I know just like in real life people are impatient. They want results! Now!  Doesnt work that way 

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies kick the can into January now…

Par for the course. If I had to bet right now, this winter is Jan 15-feb 15. Nino is going to nino. I still like us for getting to at least normal, but it all happens in that span.

[Rmine1]

Eventually there will no longer be a need for this forum since winter will soon never return to the NYC metro. Acceptance is glorious, try it out. Enjoy the warmth, see you in the spring. Oh wait, we’re already there. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

I don’t mind the back and forth as long as people leave the personal digs out of the picture. We can have disagreements without being nasty about it. I actually started my early online weather explorations by becoming a contributor to the old Weatherpoint Counterpoint shows back on Accuweather with JB and the late Ken Reeves. As much as I disagreed with JB through my emails they would discuss on the show, we always kept it civil. I used to get a chuckle about over how animated JB got by some of my questions. But he would always be gracious in our off the show e-mail exchanges. Then I heard how impressed he was by reading some of the posts in this forum. While I had plenty of disagreements with his positions, he did say that some of the talent he saw in this forum rivaled or exceeded what he experienced in the industry. 

[Rmine1]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t mind the back and forth as long as people leave the personal digs out of the picture. We can have disagreements without being nasty about it. I actually started my early online weather explorations by becoming a contributor to the old Weatherpoint Counterpoint shows back on Accuweather with JB and the late Ken Reeves. As much as I disagreed with JB through my emails they would discuss on the show, we always kept it civil. I used to get a chuckle about over how animated JB got by some of my questions. But he would always be gracious in our off the show e-mail exchanges. Then I heard how impressed he was by reading some of the posts in this forum. While I had plenty of disagreements with his positions, he did say that some of the talent he saw in this forum rivaled or exceeded what he experienced in the industry. 

Your lips to God’s ears. Civility is in the rear view mirror unfortunately. While I don’t always like your input, because I love the winter, l do appreciate your approach. Hats off. 

For me, due to illness, the days of my invaluable input are limited. I’m sure you’ll manage without me! LOL

Enjoy every day as if it were your last, because one day life will get in the way, and you’ll think back to all the time that you spent worrying about things you have ZERO control over. GUILTY!

Hey Mother Nature, tweak the PAC jet please 

 

[tristateweatherFB]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

What was your user name?  I am Adam from tsw. Still doing this all these years. 

[North and West]

One of the weaknesses of the entire weather forecast industry right now is how much money they are spending on high tech approaches when several low tech approaches discussed in these threads are yielding better forecast results for a fraction of the cost. But the people running those big organizations get stuck in a very regimented way of thinking about how to recruit talent. They don’t realize how much money they are leaving on the table. 

.

[wishcast_hater]

Eventually there will no longer be a need for this forum since winter will soon never return to the NYC metro. Acceptance is glorious, try it out. Enjoy the warmth, see you in the spring. Oh wait, we’re already there. 

What nonsense. Go troll elsewhere.


.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

This is very meta for me.

 

I started as a teenager posting on Evans forum, went to Tristate and @jm1220 who I know personally and at Penn St, Adam and Tech and Mets and all those guys.

 

Would have meteorologists chime in too...Rich Hoffman, Mike Ekster, Goodman, Craig Allen etc etc...those guys were invaluable to my understanding and building a foundation of knowledge.

 

Big part of the reason I'm doing this professionally now is because of the online community then.  Was constructive, learned a ton.  I wish folks talked over each other less, it's much more combative now than it used to be.  There would be arguments for sure, there would be weenies calling weenies a weenie.  But the pros would kind of calm the masses and steer the discussion. 

Yep. Wow time flies. 

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, tristateweatherFB said:

What was your user name?  I am Adam from tsw. Still doing this all these years. 

LFCLI30

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

LFCLI30

Did you post on NYCmetro forum ?

[snowman19]

The overnight model runs have gotten even stronger with the PAC jet late month. This is pretty incredible
 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]