December 2023

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A pleasant 50 now

Yesterday a few degrees below the forecasted high because it was cloudy, and today a few degrees above the forecasted high because it's sunny. We're probably gonna hit 52. 

[North and West]

This place has gotten pretty toxic, I only stick around because I don’t know where else to go. Bring back the channel 7 forum.


.

I used to read that and Bill Evans would comment!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my issue with posts like these (not yours, the tweet itself) is that:

1) this is a strong El Niño December. they are warm almost invariably

2) WHO is calling for significant cold? like you’re preaching to the choir. not a soul on this earth thought it would be cold this month

 

So I get exposed to a lot of different weather views in the space I work in and there were a lot of meteorologists and social mediarologists trying to downplay Nino influences this month.

 

I was forwarded some stuff from:  Direct Weather, Joe Bastardi, BAMWX, Mark Margavage, Atmospheric G2 and several other sources that were pumping up cold risk in the back half of December after a mild start.  

 

AG2 had some tweets comparing this to 09-10 because the October VP200 pattern wasn't canonical Nino and therefore December wouldn't be.

 

It was out there.  Maybe not here on this forum, but a surprising amount of folks tried to reinvent the wheel on their December US forecasts amid uncooperative signals left and right

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

So I get exposed to a lot of different weather views in the space I work in and there were a lot of meteorologists and social mediarologists trying to downplay Nino influences this month.

 

I was forwarded some stuff from:  Direct Weather, Joe Bastardi, BAMWX, Mark Margavage, Atmospheric G2 and several other sources that were pumping up cold risk in the back half of December after a mild start.  

 

AG2 had some tweets comparing this to 09-10 because the October VP200 pattern wasn't canonical Nino and therefore December wouldn't be.

 

It was out there.  Maybe not here on this forum, but a surprising amount of folks tried to reinvent the wheel on their December US forecasts amid uncooperative signals left and right

I'm amazed these sources have any credibility left after all their busted calls

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

So I get exposed to a lot of different weather views in the space I work in and there were a lot of meteorologists and social mediarologists trying to downplay Nino influences this month.

 

I was forwarded some stuff from:  Direct Weather, Joe Bastardi, BAMWX, Mark Margavage, Atmospheric G2 and several other sources that were pumping up cold risk in the back half of December after a mild start.  

 

AG2 had some tweets comparing this to 09-10 because the October VP200 pattern wasn't canonical Nino and therefore December wouldn't be.

 

It was out there.  Maybe not here on this forum, but a surprising amount of folks tried to reinvent the wheel on their December US forecasts amid uncooperative signals left and right

It's the same mistake every time-rushing a pattern change....

[BxEngine]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm amazed these sources have any credibility left after all their busted calls

They dont. Yet people here on both sides of the cold vs warmth spectrum continually bring up their posts made elsewhere to debate the points here. Its amazing how many logical fallacies can be committed to in the name of proving bastardi right or wrong.  

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

They dont. Yet people here on both sides of the cold vs warmth spectrum continually bring up their posts made elsewhere to debate the points here. Its amazing how many logical fallacies can be committed to in the name of proving bastardi right or wrong.  

I've seen articles citing direct weather as some sort of authority when they're as reliable as the farmer's almanac 

I did find it amusing that even ryan maue blocked Joe b on twitter

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We're heading into/have been for a while in a boom or bust snow distribution where we either suffer with almost no snow or we get a bonanza 50"+ season. 21-22 was a bit of an aberration since I was about at average for the winter and east of me like at ISP above average largely from the Jan 22 blizzard. 20-21 had the huge few weeks in Feb. We have boom or bust periods with little in between. What's becoming rare are the smaller 2-4" type events. 

Last year I wanted to try to prove this out, i.e. what the standard deviation looked like since 1995 as compared to the previous similar timeframe, but I never did it.  To the eye it definitely looks like the size of the standard deviation has increased significantly.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Last year I wanted to try to prove this out, i.e. what the standard deviation looked like since 1995 as compared to the previous similar timeframe, but I never did it.  To the eye it definitely looks like the size of the standard deviation has increased significantly.

This is a great point. We need the statistics over similar 5 year periods to see if this is indeed the case or just recent perception.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we are in a strong Nino that is doing a good job exerting itself, which is leading to a jet extension mid-month. there is nothing Niña about that at all

Its a combination of the very strong El Niño and the Maritime Continent MJO phases which excite the East Asian jet leading to the jet extension. That’s why we have been using El Niño MJO composites. So it’s effectively a very strong El Niño with Niña-like influences via the MJO phases. One of the weaknesses of the seasonal models is that they usually can only see the correct ENSO state and not the MJO. So they completely missed the Nina-like record rainfall and strength of the Northern Pacific Jet which lead to the wettest first week on December in the Pacific Northwest. So the +EAMT Eric mentioned is related to the MJO and El Niño interaction. 

 

MJO and TorquesFrictional and mountain torques induced by the MJO circulation anomalies are responsible for the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid earth.

 

The MJO, Atmospheric Angular Momentum and the Length-of ...

 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Its a combination of the very strong El Niño and the Maritime Continent MJO phases which excite the East Asian jet leading to the jet extension. That’s why we have been using El Niño MJO composites. So it’s effectively a very strong El Niño with Niña-like influences via the MJO phases. One of the weaknesses of the seasonal models is that they usually can only see the correct ENSO state and not the MJO. So they completely missed the Nina-like record rainfall and strength of the Northern Pacific Jet which lead to the wettest first week on December in the Pacific Northwest. So the +EAMT Eric mentioned is related to the MJO and El Niño interaction. 

 

MJO and TorquesFrictional and mountain torques induced by the MJO circulation anomalies are responsible for the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid earth.

 

The MJO, Atmospheric Angular Momentum and the Length-of ...

 

Not a good sign for the typical back loaded Nino winter response 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not a good sign for the typical back loaded Nino winter response 

Yeah, that has been one of my concerns. The previous top 5 wettest first weeks of December in Seattle were mostly La Ninas. I am hoping that we can see some type of backloaded El Niño effect later in the winter. Don’t want to see these Niña-like undertones mess things up. But I reserve my judgment until we get closer to that time. Would like to see some weakening of the Northern branch allowing more of a STJ dominant pattern with some blocking.
 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	2023-12-07	5.78	0
2	2007-12-07	5.68	0
3	1989-12-07	4.06	0
4	1970-12-07	3.83	0
5	1975-12-07	3.63	0

[JustinRP37]

It is funny that Joe B could find snow in a deep-fryer at a McDonald's. Anyways, with all the weenie emojis flying around in here, has anyone been to the best weenie spot in the metro area? Dog Den in White Plains is my absolute favorite weenie spot. Check it out sometime. Now back to our regularly scheduled warmth versus cold discussion. Said goodbye to what little snow was on the ground this morning before I commuted to the Bronx. Noted that Thunder Ridge did not bother last night with the big storm coming up this weekend. Maybe, just maybe, we see some back end accumulations. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is funny that Joe B could find snow in a deep-fryer at a McDonald's. Anyways, with all the weenie emojis flying around in here, has anyone been to the best weenie spot in the metro area? Dog Den in White Plains is my absolute favorite weenie spot. Check it out sometime. Now back to our regularly scheduled warmth versus cold discussion. Said goodbye to what little snow was on the ground this morning before I commuted to the Bronx. Noted that Thunder Ridge did not bother last night with the big storm coming up this weekend. Maybe, just maybe, we see some back end accumulations. 

Cold and snow and hype in general sells.    He's on record as saying a disruptive Xmas to New Year's travel period is on tap-let's see if that happens.   

[uofmiami]

 

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Cold and snow and hype in general sells.    He's on record as saying a disruptive Xmas to New Year's travel period is on tap-let's see if that happens.   

I’ll keep the shorts and T-shirts handy. 

[Neblizzard]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not a good sign for the typical back loaded Nino winter response 

It’s not I must admit.  Come back next winter. 

[the_other_guy]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not a good sign for the typical back loaded Nino winter response 

Ninos here suck in general. The back loaded end is almost always a day late and a dollar short.

 

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

It's the same mistake every time-rushing a pattern change....

AG2 has solid meteorologists working for them.  They got too cute wirh their forecast, went pure academia focus instead of common sense 'high correlation, high probability' forecasting.  It burned them.

 

The other ones are mostly twitter noise for people who want to hype cold, but people do trade them and you see that creep into more reputable forecasters reports sometimes because people ask about it.

[NittanyWx]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that has been one of my concerns. The previous top 5 wettest first weeks of December in Seattle were mostly La Ninas. I am hoping that we can see some type of backloaded El Niño effect later in the winter. Don’t want to see these Niña-like undertones mess things up. But I reserve my judgment until we get closer to that time. Would like to see some weakening of the Northern branch allowing more of a STJ dominant pattern with some blocking.
 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	2023-12-07	5.78	0
2	2007-12-07	5.68	0
3	1989-12-07	4.06	0
4	1970-12-07	3.83	0
5	1975-12-07	3.63	0

Intraseasonal variability in a year where we're a lot of extremes to the wet/dry side for several reasons isn't necessarily predictive in my mind.

 

Patterns are quite amplified this year.  I forecast globally and I'm seeing records fall way more often this year than I did in 2015.  Which is a bit surprising to me.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

 

Same crazy jet extension that we got last January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same crazy jet extension that we got last January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perhaps not too surprisingly, the 12/8 ECMWF weekly forecast has bumped up 12/18-25 anomalies to 3C to 6C above normal of the NYC area (from 1C to 3C above normal on the previous run).

[Allsnow]

11-15 day looks spot on the mjo 6-7 for Nino December 

[North and West]

Cold and snow and hype in general sells.    He's on record as saying a disruptive Xmas to New Year's travel period is on tap-let's see if that happens.   

Exactly. Mild, boring, and tranquil doesn’t get it done.


.

[Volcanic Winter]

@bluewave , @Allsnow

Can you guys stop mind-controlling the weather like two supervillains already?

That’d be great. 

[Akeem the African Dream]

 

[JustinRP37]

As the academic semester closes out for the fall term, I have my students reflect on the semester and ask them their favorite and least favorite topics. I figured you'd all love one student's response to the least favorite topic "Conversely, my least favorite topic was "ocean currents and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)". One of the biggest challenges in comprehending global climate patterns was how intricate they were, especially considering how complex ocean currents and ENSO are. The complexities of these phenomena were daunting, even though they were acknowledged to have a crucial role in influencing climate."

I think all of us on the subforum agree.

[SACRUS]

29 last night and up to 53 today.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A very mild weekend will lies ahead. Saturday will be variably cloudy and mild with readings in the lower and middle 50s across the region. Sunday will see the temperature rise into the 60s in many parts of the region as a strengthening storm brings unseasonably warm air into the region.

A significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday. A general 1.50"-2.50" with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong southeasterly winds will gust past 40 mph. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. The strong winds could bring down limbs and even some trees. Thunderstorms are possible as the cold front pushes across the region late Sunday or early Monday. A period of cooler air will follow. However, temperatures could again rise to above and much above normal levels as the winter solstice approaches.

Overall, the first 10 days of December remain on track to finish with a solidly warmer than normal anomaly. No Arctic air appears likely through at least the first three weeks of December and possibly the entire month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around November 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -14.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.518 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.736 (RMM). The December 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.491 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (1.5° above normal).

 

[vegan_edible]

nam chose the hard stuff this morning, 18z monday