December 2023

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Anywho…close the shade for a while on cold/snow in our location. Hopefully Sunday is interesting with the wind. Looks like another sloppy jets game 

In fairness, the Jets could play all their home games at Atacama Desert Stadium and they would still always be sloppy.

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Very true 

 

I have G. Wilson and Hall on my fantasy team…it’s been very frustrating year 

Lmao me too 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

He's talking about the actual pattern.  If it looked cold he'd say that. 

I think hes just lashing out because the Yankees got Juan Soto lol jkjk

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this!

I may be reading that map incorrectly, however it looks like there is a trough in the east. Why were the temps so high that December with a trough? Perhaps the positive EPO flooding the continent with marine air?

Those were the zonal winds at 250 mb. Here's the 500 mb pattern:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

He's talking about the actual pattern.  If it looked cold he'd say that. 

Yeah, it’s just that the colder winter months since the 15-16 super El Niño have become few and far between. I was excited about the cold January 2022 pattern but disappointed for western sections since the lack of a decent -AO kept the best snows near the coast. Late January into February 2021 was also a great pattern. Allsnow did a great job highlighting the December 2020 snowstorm potential from later in November 2020. So not sure why people are giving him so many weenies. He loves a great pattern as much as I do. And will highlight it when it’s actually about to occur. But when we see such a hostile Pacific like we have now it can’t be ignored. 

[lee59]

Looks like a pretty good wind and rain event for this area on Sunday-Monday time frame. I know it's not snow so that turns off a lot of folks, but I like all types of interesting weather and this is at least something to monitor, especially on Long Island.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like a pretty good wind and rain event for this area on Sunday-Monday time frame. I know it's not snow so that turns off a lot of folks, but I like all types of interesting weather and this is at least something to monitor, especially on Long Island.

Alot of rain in a short period of time too-might be some flash flooding concerns in the usual low lying/urban type areas

[brooklynwx99]

seems like the transition to a better pattern begins a bit before Christmas and will continue through the holiday week. nice to see the shift moving forward in time

doesn’t look good before the 23rd or so, but we should see the AK trough retrograde and the positive heights build into the NAO domain via wave breaking.

not a bad spot to be in, and it gives a good launching pad into Jan

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s just that the colder winter months since the 15-16 super El Niño have become few and far between. I was excited about the cold January 2022 pattern but disappointed for western sections since the lack of a decent -AO kept the best snows near the coast. Late January into February 2021 was also a great pattern. Allsnow did a great job highlighting the December 2020 snowstorm potential from later in November 2020. So not sure why people are giving him so many weenies. He loves a great pattern as much as I do. And will highlight it when it’s actually about to occur. But when we see such a hostile Pacific like we have now it can’t be ignored. 

Thank you @bluewave

 

Those silly emojis don’t bother me, let the metfans of the world keep hitting that button. 
 

I learn a lot from your posts and you have been incredibly accurate the last few years. Keeps up the good work! 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

my issue with posts like these (not yours, the tweet itself) is that:

1) this is a strong El Niño December. they are warm almost invariably

2) WHO is calling for significant cold? like you’re preaching to the choir. not a soul on this earth thought it would be cold this month

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my issue with posts like these (not yours, the tweet itself) is that:

1) this is a strong El Niño December. they are warm almost invariably

2) WHO is calling for significant cold? like you’re preaching to the choir. not a soul on this earth thought it would be cold this month

I'm sure I could find a few

[uofmiami]

 

[EastonSN+]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those were the zonal winds at 250 mb. Here's the 500 mb pattern:

Thanks Don as always your the best!

This looks an awful lot like the last two Decembers :(. Terrible RNA and a south based NAO block. 

It's actually incredibly similar to last December.

[Eduardo]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Actually I'm not but keep bashing me when I'm actually posting the truth.  This sub forum is ridiculous at times. 

I guess Bluewave and Allsnow are always right.

 

 

Nobody is saying that they “are always right” my man.  They’ve contributed some quality, objective analysis over the years, and we’re onboard the snow train during the excellent stretch we saw from 2000-2018 or so.  And, objectively-speaking, things just don’t look that great this month if, like me, you love cold and snow in NYC.

Mean regression stanks.  Sooner or later, we will break this terrible multi-year, Niña-esque state, but I’m afraid we’ve got a bit to go, unless as @brooklynwx99 thinks, the Niño gives us some room to run during the back half.

[winterwx21]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s just that the colder winter months since the 15-16 super El Niño have become few and far between. I was excited about the cold January 2022 pattern but disappointed for western sections since the lack of a decent -AO kept the best snows near the coast. Late January into February 2021 was also a great pattern. Allsnow did a great job highlighting the December 2020 snowstorm potential from later in November 2020. So not sure why people are giving him so many weenies. He loves a great pattern as much as I do. And will highlight it when it’s actually about to occur. But when we see such a hostile Pacific like we have now it can’t be ignored. 

You and Allsnow absolutely nailed last winter. I love reading both of your posts and learn a lot from them. Keep up the great work! 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

You and Allsnow absolutely nailed last winter. I love reading both of your posts and learn a lot. Keep up the great work! 

seriously, 2 highly informed posters, amongst many on this board. i love how much you can learn from just reading this sub

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Nobody is saying that they “are always right” my man.  They’ve contributed some quality, objective analysis over the years, and we’re onboard the snow train during the excellent stretch we saw from 2000-2018 or so.  And, objectively-speaking, things just don’t look that great this month if, like me, you love cold and snow in NYC.

Mean regression stanks.  Sooner or later, we will break this terrible multi-year, Niña-esque state, but I’m afraid we’ve got a bit to go, unless as @brooklynwx99 thinks, the Niño gives us some room to run during the back half.

Most of the measurable snow days during El Niño winters occur during January and February. February has the largest share of days with 1”+ and 6”+ days (including 50% of 6”+ days) during meteorological winter during El Niño winters. So, a subpar December isn’t unknown during such winters.

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my issue with posts like these (not yours, the tweet itself) is that:

1) this is a strong El Niño December. they are warm almost invariably

2) WHO is calling for significant cold? like you’re preaching to the choir. not a soul on this earth thought it would be cold this month

Bastardi had been tweeting maps showing a near historically cold 45-day pattern from 11/20 0z through 1/4 0z (the viability of that idea has disintegrated well before the end of that period). That may be the source of such expectations. 

[North and West]

Most of the measurable snow days during El Niño winters occur during January and February. February has the largest share of days with 1”+ and 6”+ days (including 50% of 6”+ days) during meteorological winter during El Niño winters. So, a subpar December isn’t unknown during such winters.

Also, pattern reading experience aside (which I do not possess), the top notch nor’easters and snowstorms have always clustered in the first half of February here.

(Your analysis is always great; just seems like December storms are infrequent versus February. We’re just conditioned to want snow in the darkest time of the year and around Christmas.)


.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Also, pattern reading experience aside (which I do not possess), the top notch nor’easters and snowstorms have always clustered in the first half of February here.

(Your analysis is always great; just seems like December storms are infrequent versus February. We’re just conditioned to want snow in the darkest time of the year and around Christmas.)


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And our average highs are still well into the 40s so it makes sense we don't get a ton of snow this time of year. We got spoiled by the 2000s Decembers

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Nobody is saying that they “are always right” my man.  They’ve contributed some quality, objective analysis over the years, and we’re onboard the snow train during the excellent stretch we saw from 2000-2018 or so.  And, objectively-speaking, things just don’t look that great this month if, like me, you love cold and snow in NYC.

Mean regression stanks.  Sooner or later, we will break this terrible multi-year, Niña-esque state, but I’m afraid we’ve got a bit to go, unless as @brooklynwx99 thinks, the Niño gives us some room to run during the back half.

sorry, but this has been irking me. this is NOT a Niña-esque pattern! this is a textbook December Nino pattern… not every crappy pattern is the fault of a La Nina

however, this pattern likely transforms to a more favorable one towards January, as we usually see

[brooklynwx99]

we are in a strong Nino that is doing a good job exerting itself, which is leading to a jet extension mid-month. there is nothing Niña about that at all

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And our average highs are still well into the 40s so it makes sense we don't get a ton of snow this time of year. We got spoiled by the 2000s Decembers

100%. Just look at the 500 MB plot provided by Don for December 1888, it's remarkably similar to last December with a deep RNA and South Based NAO block. Last year's December was not historic nor abnormal, just like this December is not unexpected at all for an El Nino December.

55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 can skew perception. Like I posted before, this feels to me like the winters I experienced growing up, so benefiting from experience a little.

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Each forum tends to have its own flavor.

If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you.

If you want warmth optimism this is your forum.

 

And neither flavor has any impact on what actually happens so I don't know why some get so bent out of shape.  

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

In fairness, the Jets could play all their home games at Atacama Desert Stadium and they would still always be sloppy.

IMO, the Jets haven't played a home game since they left Shea Stadium.

[coastalplainsnowman]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 can skew perception. Like I posted before, this feels to me like the winters I experienced growing up, so benefiting from experience a little.

100%. That timeframe saw 50"+ snowfall *more often than not* even on Long Island. Anyone growing up during that is bound to be disappointed.  Compare it to a kid of the 80s.  Even after 2000-2018 I'm still happy with anything that covers the grass.

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

100%. That timeframe saw 50"+ snowfall *more often than not* even on Long Island. Anyone growing up during that is bound to be disappointed.  Compare it to a kid of the 80s.  Even after 2000-2018 I'm still happy with anything that covers the grass.

We're heading into/have been for a while in a boom or bust snow distribution where we either suffer with almost no snow or we get a bonanza 50"+ season. 21-22 was a bit of an aberration since I was about at average for the winter and east of me like at ISP above average largely from the Jan 22 blizzard. 20-21 had the huge few weeks in Feb. We have boom or bust periods with little in between. What's becoming rare are the smaller 2-4" type events. 

[wishcast_hater]

Actually I'm not but keep bashing me when I'm actually posting the truth.  This sub forum is ridiculous at times. 
I guess Bluewave and Allsnow are always right.
 
 

This place has gotten pretty toxic, I only stick around because I don’t know where else to go. Bring back the channel 7 forum.


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[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

This place has gotten pretty toxic, I only stick around because I don’t know where else to go. Bring back the channel 7 forum.


.

Perhaps one way to difuse is to replace the weenie tag with an emoji that represents disagreement rather than one that represents someone is a weenie. Or somehow a pic of the words Respectfully Disagree.

[vegan_edible]

canadian model bought that fake bodega weed and went to town

[Stormlover74]

A pleasant 50 now