December 2023

[NittanyWx]

By the way, the VP200 Hovmollers are already in 'favorable' territory inside the 15 day.  So the models are already 'seeing' the MJO

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

just north of NYC got b/w 5-8 inches

It was 5” here on the north shore but was gone in a day. The south shore was 2-3 degrees warmer and just got white rain. Literally nothing on the ground 10 miles south of here. The usual UHI effects screwed over much of the city.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

As a clinical psychologist, I concur. 

Everyone is just bored with no exciting weather to analyze, so we micro-analyze ourselves lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I will continue to harp on about the source region until it's resolved.  It's the biggest inhibitor to anything other than a transient cool period right now.

 

Kara Sea ridge developing 11-15 day should shunt some cooler air on this side of the pole, primarily focused over Alaska and hopefully some of NW Canada.

 

For significant storm odds to increase along with a helpful airmass with it, this period would hopefully include some cold air draining into W Canada.  At that point you'd look for a baseline Nino +PNA to re emerge which would, in theory, be the timing when things would line up for something more significant.

 

 

Yes. It won't change overnight and TBH, I don't expect a lot of frigid airmasses.....active and cold enough, for the most part.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. It won't change overnight and TBH, I don't expect a lot of frigid airmasses.....active and cold enough, for the most part.

As we get into Jan you don't need anything crazy cold wise...obviously Dec and Mar you do...ton of white rain last March had that pattern been a month earlier we would have scored some decent snows

[lee59]

Flurries for the past hour here, 37 degrees. January like today.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The pattern is clearly getting to people-non stop fighting everywhere

You know it’s a tough pattern when even the usually snowy long range GFS is giving us much fantasy snow than last December.

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a tough pattern when even the usually snowy long range GFS is giving us much less virtual snow that last December.

 

 

Add the euro op to that as well….

[Allsnow]

This needs to improve before anyone can start talking snow 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a tough pattern when even the usually snowy long range GFS is giving us much fantasy snow than last December.

 

 

So obviously your expecting a shutout for December..warm Christmas ect..we are used to that. Any hope for January and February as you see now?

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This needs to improve before anyone can start talking snow 

 This 

[TheClimateChanger]

Odds on this being the least snowiest calendar year on record at Central Park? Currently tied for least snowfall to date with 2020. The full year record is 3.4 inches, from 1913.

[WX-PA]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Odds on this being the least snowiest calendar year on record at Central Park? Currently tied for least snowfall to date with 2020. The full year record is 3.4 inches, from 1913.

Yea this snow drought is one of the worst on record. And I saw many in the 70's 80's and 90's.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Odds on this being the least snowiest calendar year on record at Central Park? Currently tied for least snowfall to date with 2020. The full year record is 3.4 inches, from 1913.

It would seem like we could manage a measly 1.2" but I'm not so sure 

[winterwx21]

Still only 36 degrees here. We're not gonna make it to the forecasted high of 40, but no surprise today is underperforming due to the cloudy skies. Wintry day with the flurries.

Probably won't see flakes again for awhile. Euro looks ugly out to day 10 ... doesn't look good for winter lovers. Hopefully things will change late month. 

[North and West]

Here is the relevant excerpt from my work...you be the judge, chief.

 

Balance of November-December 2023 Outlook

December Analogs: 1953,1957,1965, 1982,1986, 1987,1991,1994,1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2018(x2) There are indications from guidance that the MJO will spend emerge and spend much of the balance of the month of November in phases 8 and 1 at moderate amplitude. These are mild phases for the northeast.

 

    Before entering phase two with a potential slight cool down to close out the month.     This particular evolution has some emergent support from guidance.  

Potentially emerging in phase 3, as per the ECMWF, for the end of November.  
  And the onset of December.    
This evolution would align with the expectation of an intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year.  

This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December.

 

December Forecast H5 Composite: 1951-2010:        
  1991-2020:  What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall.     And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite.

December 2023 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010:   The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England.
1991-2020:   While the month should finish slightly mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events.   December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:   1951-2010:        
 
1991-2020:       There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023.

.

[North and West]

haters gonna hate


.

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Odds on this being the least snowiest calendar year on record at Central Park? Currently tied for least snowfall to date with 2020. The full year record is 3.4 inches, from 1913.

Records are made to be broken, surprised it may take over 100 years which is a long time.

[EastonSN+]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s a tough pattern when even the usually snowy long range GFS is giving us much fantasy snow than last December.

 

 

Perhaps this is a good sign and we will finally get hammered!

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Yea this snow drought is one of the worst on record. And I saw many in the 70's 80's and 90's.

From a YOY perspective yes, however if we get crushed in January and February and it's an above average winter, than the 90s still take the cake.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

You would have stroked out over my actual blog post.

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This needs to improve before anyone can start talking snow 

Rinse and repeat from the extended EPS.
 

Dec 11-18

 

Dec 18-25

 

 

Dec 25-01

[North and West]

You would have stroked out over my actual blog post.

That made me legitimately laugh out loud.


.

[vegan_edible]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would have stroked out over my actual blog post.

i read through that the other night actually, you posted it in the enso thread or sne, cant remember. although i couldnt understand half of it due to my lack of knowledge it was a great read

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rinse and repeat from the extended EPS.
 

Dec 11-18

 

Dec 18-25

 

 

Dec 25-01

I know Don mentioned very loosely 97/98, which is still a fear as in that year the GOA trough flooded Canada with PAC air the entire season. It has been 25 years so I wouldn't be floored by a repeat/something similar maybe a hair cooler.

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know Don mentioned very loosely 97/98, which is still a fear as in that year the GOA trough flooded Canada with PAC air the entire season. It has been 25 years so would it be floored by a repeat/something similar maybe a hair cooler.

I don't think that's going to happen. there isn't really any support for such a solution

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This needs to improve before anyone can start talking snow 

All about source region.

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rinse and repeat from the extended EPS.
 

Dec 11-18

 

Dec 18-25

 

 

Dec 25-01

I was wondering why I didn’t see the weeklies posted all over this site today…

 

4-7 mjo….enough said 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

I was wondering why I didn’t see the weeklies posted all over this site today…

 

4-7 mjo….enough said 

here you go

 

[brooklynwx99]

they have looked the same for the last two to three weeks and have been moving forward in time. remarkably consistent, actually