December 2023

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i think you actually broke the sne forum dude, like they all need some CBT and a nap so they can come back to reality 

You know things are bad when you read posts in that forum which say..

 

”pattern change begins the 15th and completed by the 20th”

”lots of changes in the 11-15 day but the gefs are the coldest” 

“perhaps we can sneak a event in before things become more hostile” 

“my winter forecast outline this thaw period perfectly”

”this isn’t last winter, we got a flurry today” 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean in a relative sense, or actually become stout? I think it will gather itself for a time in January, relatively speaking, but I would be stunned if the mid winter period ever features a particularly strong PV. I do, however, feel it will strengthen ahead of climo at the end of the season in March.

I raised a scenario where the PV could get stronger, but my thinking is that such a scenario is not on the table this winter. If I had to venture a guess, the odds of such a scenario playing out are probably less than 20%. I expect a generally weak SPV to persist through much of the winter.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

We did have a big cold outbreak in 15-16-I think NYC got close to zero in the Feb outbreak?

NYC actually fell to -1° on Valentine's Day 2016.

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Allsnow said:

You know things are bad when you read posts in that forum which read…

 

”pattern change begins the 15th and completed by the 20th”

”lots of changes in the 11-15 day but the gefs are the coldest” 

“perhaps we can sneak a event in before things become more hostile” 

“my winter forecast outline this thaw period perfectly”

”this isn’t last winter, we got a flurry today” 

like realistically, december snowfall in ninos are trash anyway. i get it, january is most likely our month to score. im gonna remain hopeful cause im dying for some sort of significant snowfall. but at the same time its like open your eyes people, the "perhaps we can sneak in an event before things become more hostile" line is similar to me saying "maybe i can cash out on the lottery before my chances are lower in two weeks". what the hell kind of logic is going on over there

[winterwx21]

Had some flurries here. 35 degrees right now. 

[brooklynwx99]

I think people easily forget that NYC averages a grand total of 4.7" of snow in December. that can easily be made up given that the pattern should become more favorable late in the month... not exactly worried for the rest of the winter given the weak SPV and the fact that a -NAO December correlates very well to strong blocking for the rest of the year

Ninos are backloaded winters

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think people easily forget that NYC averages a grand total of 4.7" of snow in December. that can easily be made up given that the pattern should become more favorable late in the month... not exactly worried for the rest of the winter given the weak SPV and the fact that a -NAO December correlates very well to strong blocking for the rest of the year

Ninos are backloaded winters

All true-we got late blocking last year but it came too late with little to no cold air...hopefully the cold air source is decent this go around

[kat5hurricane]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think people easily forget that NYC averages a grand total of 4.7" of snow in December. that can easily be made up given that the pattern should become more favorable late in the month... not exactly worried for the rest of the winter given the weak SPV and the fact that a -NAO December correlates very well to strong blocking for the rest of the year

Ninos are backloaded winters

December hasn't been a winter month in terms of snow (it was cold last year) since the 2000s capped off by Boxing Day '11.  We've had a lot of late January-March winters since then.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i think you actually broke the sne forum dude, like they all need some CBT and a nap so they can come back to reality 

As a LICSW and practicing therapist, I'm quite certain its some of the folks in this subforum who could use some dialectical behavioral therapy in order to increase capacity to engage in a more nuanced thought process.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You know things are bad when you read posts in that forum which say..

 

”pattern change begins the 15th and completed by the 20th”

”lots of changes in the 11-15 day but the gefs are the coldest” 

“perhaps we can sneak a event in before things become more hostile” 

“my winter forecast outline this thaw period perfectly”

”this isn’t last winter, we got a flurry today” 

Here is the relevant excerpt from my work...you be the judge, chief.

 

Balance of November-December 2023 Outlook

December Analogs: 1953,1957,1965, 1982,1986, 1987,1991,1994,1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2018(x2)

There are indications from guidance that the MJO will spend emerge and spend much of the balance of the month of November in phases 8 and 1 at moderate amplitude. These are mild phases for the northeast.

 

 

 

Before entering phase two with a potential slight cool down to close out the month.

 

 

This particular evolution has some emergent support from guidance.

 

Potentially emerging in phase 3, as per the ECMWF, for the end of November.

 

 

And the onset of December.

 

 

This evolution would align with the expectation of an intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year.

 

This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December.

 

December Forecast H5 Composite:

1951-2010:

 

 

 

 

 

1991-2020: 

What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall.

 

 

And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite.

December 2023 Forecast Temps:

1951-2010:

 

The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England.

1991-2020:

 

While the month should finish slightly mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events.

 

December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:

 

1951-2010:

 

 

 

 

 

1991-2020:

 

 

 

There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023.

[Brian5671]

The pattern is clearly getting to people-non stop fighting everywhere

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

The pattern is clearly getting to people-non stop fighting everywhere

ngl its kinda fun to watch

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The pattern is clearly getting to people-non stop fighting everywhere

I wouldn't really call that "fighting"...I calmly presented empirical evidence in order to set the record straight on what my expectations were for the month since he impied there was some attempt at rationalization, or moving of the goal posts.

[Volcanic Winter]

Personally, I dislike the drama and prefer the objective analysis that makes this place so spectacularly engaging. No reason to “fight” or spar with one another over differences of opinion. I rarely see what I would actually consider trolling like on the kind of message forums I grew up on, this place is honestly pretty amazing from that perspective. We need to try our best not take umbrage with the analysis of others because it conflicts with our emotions / desires, I would argue that’s not in the spirit of this forum.

So many broadly intelligent people here posting their genuine interpretations of an enormous spread of data is going to yield disagreement, it’s the nature of the beast on a science forum.

In short, I think we all just need some damn snow . Until then, there’s really no reason to be at each other’s throats. There’s no singular way to interpret the entirety of the data that this place regularly parses. 

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Personally, I dislike the drama and prefer the objective analysis that makes this place so spectacularly engaging. No reason to “fight” or spar with one another over differences of opinion. I rarely see what I would actually consider trolling like on the kind of message forums I grew up on, this place is honestly pretty amazing from that perspective. We need to try our best not take umbrage with the analysis of others because it conflicts with our emotions / desires, I would argue that’s not in the spirit of this forum.

So many broadly intelligent people here posting their genuine interpretations of an enormous spread of data is going to yield disagreement, it’s the nature of the beast on a science forum.

In short, I think we all just need some damn snow . Until then, there’s really no reason to be at each other’s throats. There’s no singular way to interpret the entirety of the data that this place regularly parses. 

agree, one storm and we're gonna be singing kumbaya. not even kidding, the withdrawls have made the forum go nuts

[gravitylover]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think people easily forget that NYC averages a grand total of 4.7" of snow in December. that can easily be made up given that the pattern should become more favorable late in the month... not exactly worried for the rest of the winter given the weak SPV and the fact that a -NAO December correlates very well to strong blocking for the rest of the year

Ninos are backloaded winters

As long as the Pacific warm air pump shuts down... 

[Brian5671]

NYC and PHL coming up on 2 yrs since the last 1 inch of snow-that speaks volumes about all the bickering here...

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

NYC and PHL coming up on 2 yrs since the last 1 inch of snow-that speaks volumes about all the bickering here...

Wait a second, it has been two years since NYC saw more than 1 inch of snow?

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NYC and PHL coming up on 2 yrs since the last 1 inch of snow-that speaks volumes about all the bickering here...

NYC got 1” last February it was like 1.3 or something like that

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

NYC got 1” last February it was like 1.3 or something like that

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

Haven’t plowed snow since January 2022. Coming up on two years now 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As a LICSW and practicing therapist, I'm quite certain its some of the folks in this subforum who could use some dialectical behavioral therapy in order to increase capacity to engage in a more nuanced thought process.

As a clinical psychologist, I concur. 

[binbisso]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haven’t plowed snow since January 2022. Coming up on two years now 

I wonder how many times the plows came through from December 96 through March of 2000.

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

Oh yeah I remember that I was huh how I got 1.4” here

[vegan_edible]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Oh yeah I remember that I was huh how I got 1.4” here

i somehow scored like 5 inches in wp during that feb event last year

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I wonder how many times the plows came through from December 96 through March of 2000.

Before 19/20 winter it had only happened once in my lifetime which was 97/98. It has now happened twice in 3 years 19-20 and 22-23 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i somehow scored like 5 inches in wp during that feb event last year

just north of NYC got b/w 5-8 inches

[Volcanic Winter]

Last real snow for me at home was 1/29/22. Holding onto that one for dear life, top tier storm here with 16 inches with the bulk falling around 22F. Good, cold storm. 

Couple minor coatings after this but no major accumulations since. 

[Tatamy]

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

Over time I believe it will become increasingly difficult to see snowfalls of 1” or more in NYC.  This won’t be solely caused by global warming either.  I used to work in Manhattan back in the first decade.  I worked in midtown near 34th and 9th Avenue.  In a borderline event with wet snow I would routinely walk from 9th to 8th Avenues and the snow would turn to rain due to the urban heat island effect.  You could walk down some streets and see snow falling at the rooftops and rain at street level.  Now that West Side Yards has been built I am sure that is no longer possible.  That brings me to my point.  There are currently plans for what are known as “Supertalls” all over Manhattan and the other nearby boroughs.  Investors are buying up properties and tearing down what is there in order to construct these enormous buildings.  NYC is well on its way to having into the hundreds of these 800’ to 1000’ buildings throughout the city.  I think by 25-50 years or so there will only be snow in Manhattan with the most intense/cold storms.  I believe that this man made mountain range will have other effects in the region that have yet to be seen or determined.

[NittanyWx]

I will continue to harp on about the source region until it's resolved.  It's the biggest inhibitor to anything other than a transient cool period right now.

 

Kara Sea ridge developing 11-15 day should shunt some cooler air on this side of the pole, primarily focused over Alaska and hopefully some of NW Canada.

 

For significant storm odds to increase along with a helpful airmass with it, this period would hopefully include some cold air draining into W Canada.  At that point you'd look for a baseline Nino +PNA to re emerge which would, in theory, be the timing when things would line up for something more significant.