December 2023

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We did have a big cold outbreak in 15-16-I think NYC got close to zero in the Feb outbreak?

Yes, Presidents’ Day weekend then winter ended 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

I never like to see Alaska consistently cold. I’m willing to toss December, went into it with that thinking based on Nino climo. Jan/feb have potential. Wether they really produce or are just average may come down to if we see a SSW event.

[bluewave]

The biggest issue with the wxbell charts is that there is an abrupt color shift around around -8 which draws your eyes toward the colder departures. The +8 has a more subtle color shift which makes it look less warm.  Properly designed temperature departure charts which most other vendors and agencies use don’t have this issue around +8 and -8. I am hoping this was just a design flaw on Ryan’s part and not a conscious decision.

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We did have a big cold outbreak in 15-16-I think NYC got close to zero in the Feb outbreak?

-1 was the low

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I never like to see Alaska consistently cold. I’m willing to toss December, went into it with that thinking based on Nino climo. Jan/feb have potential. Wether they really produce or are just average may come down to if we see a SSW event.

The biggest issue with these 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 temperature departure charts is that they run too cold with a super amped up Pacific Jet patterns that we have now. So the actual pattern will probably verify warmer than the models are forecasting. Just look at how none of the models had the 60° readings last weekend but were in the low 50s from further out.  

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 5-10 or 6-10 day period could see cool readings. Tropical Tidbits is still using the old 1981-2020 base period, which understates the cold and overstates the warmth relative to the warmer 1991-2020 baseline that is now in use.

The warmth rebounds for a time (check out days 10-15). It's not extreme warmth, but readings wind up in the middle and perhaps upper 40s (45 is the end value for Central Park) by the end of the 0z EPS run in the NYC area. The latest CFSv2 weeklies keep the warm anomalies going through the end of the month. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a pattern evolution. If past years are representative, the change to a more favorable pattern might take somewhat longer than currently modeled. It seems that the weekly guidance has two big issues beyond two weeks: either a bias for continuity that frequently runs through weeks 5-6 or, when it breaks from continuity, the rushing of pattern changes. I still think January and February will offer opportunities for cold and snow. The last week of December could see cold start to return, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it takes until the first week in January.

There has been notable warming of the stratosphere, focused on 5 mb to 10 mb. However, there's still no forecast for the kind of wind reversal that defines major warming events through 10 days (ECMWF ensemble mean). For now, the stratospheric vortex still looks to remain weak through the foreseeable future, which should afford higher blocking possibilities. There is a risk that once the stratosphere cools, especially if there is no zonal wind reversal, that could allow the stratospheric polar vortex to strengthen. There's no guidance showing such an outcome, but it has happened in some past winters. Such a development would cause problems for January and perhaps beyond. I'm articulating this risk, but I don't think it is the most likely outcome right now.

Finally,there has been some chatter about extreme cold (e.g., single-digit-type cold for NYC) to end December/start January. I'm very skeptical of such calls. Numerous El Niño winters, even snowy ones, have not seen single-digit or colder peak cold in NYC.

Thanks Don, in my previous posts I referenced that I thought El ninos were typically not frigid, rather they usually have marginal air masses offset by favorable storm tracks with dynamic cooling from offshore intensification. The MA forum had a post stating that Canada is usually above average during times of truly large snow events.

Seems that truly frigid years with the PV on our side of the globe for an extended period of time happens very rarely (76/77, 93/94 and 13/14).

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I never like to see Alaska consistently cold. I’m willing to toss December, went into it with that thinking based on Nino climo. Jan/feb have potential. Wether they really produce or are just average may come down to if we see a SSW event.

I thought El ninos typically had a trough over Alaska, +EPO offset by a POS PNA?

[vegan_edible]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is looking ugly for us moving forward.  Stop being a troll. 

Check out the Mid Atlantic Subforum . They are talking about the upcoming pattern near the holidays.  

I think I'm going to take a break from this subforum because alot of misinformation.

hey man, as someone who stumbled onto this forum last year because i wanted to figure out why we werent getting snow i understand how the hopes of a white christmas and a snowy pattern not verifying can be a tad frustrating. however, i would avoid calling what some fellow amwxer's post misinformation. i studied and work in art, where our mediums and outcomes become entirely subjective, and the end product is made to have an opinion formed by the viewer. one of the best parts of this forum and being a meteorology hobbyist is the fact that these charts, maps, models are indeed objective. to some degree, we can interpret scientific data and create our own outcome. do i absolutely love/agree with everything sman19 posts? no. do i appreciate his view on things so i do not continually get my hopes up for something that isn't gonna happen? yes. i'm under one year on this board, time and time again i am blown away by the collective intelligence here, and am grateful for all the knowledge ive gained from here. the good news is i think everyone is on board with the idea that we will end up scoring this year at some point, and statistically it cant get worse than last year

so i'll see you when the new models drop
 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

 

[MANDA]

Two periods of light snow here so far this morning.  Colder surfaces with a light coating.  Temperature 29.  I'll take what I can get!

Festive mood flakes!

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Two periods of light snow here so far this morning.  Colder surfaces with a light coating.  Temperature 29.  I'll take what I can get!

Festive mood flakes!

nice!  dusting on the mulch and deck here.  

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I had my first rimed flakes of the season here yesterday.

[the_other_guy]

I just want to point out that many of us told the forum to watch this date for snow.

As I said over weekend, a patented 2 day cold shot with precip shouldnt be dismissed

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I just want to point out that many of us told the forum to watch this date for snow.

As I said over weekend, a patented 2 day cold shot with precip shouldnt be dismissed

2 days in a row with snow in the air. We take. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I had my first rimed flakes of the season here yesterday.

Congrats. Light snow currently falling here. 
 

It’s been hard lately to get a December day to feel like December. Unfortunately, this won’t last as we approach 60 this weekend 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats. Light snow currently falling here. 
 

It’s been hard lately to get a December day to feel like December. Unfortunately, this won’t last as we approach 60 this weekend 

Yeah, we take what we can get in the post Boxing Day Blizzard December era. I don’t think we realize how spoiled we got from 2000 to 2010. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.6	2.6
2023	0.0	0.0
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	8.9	8.9
2010	20.1	20.1
2009	12.4	12.4
2008	6.0	6.0
2007	2.9	2.9
2006	0.0	0.0
2005	9.7	9.7
2004	3.0	3.0
2003	19.8	19.8
2002	11.0	11.0
2001	T	T
2000	13.4	13.4

[dmillz25]

Flurries here in the south bronx

[dmillz25]

Looks like my part of bk is getting a good burst atm

[rclab]

Good morning everyone first snowflake I’ve seen over the postage stamp. I was worried but not anymore. Thank you Mom N. Stay well all, as always ….

 

 

[JustinRP37]

This has been one of the better starts to ski season in NY and New England in years. Get out and enjoy the winter and quit wishing for different weather, the weather is what it is. There are chances, especially for the interior moving forward. Anomalies for temperatures do not tell the whole story. That the city is tough to see accumulating snow in any winter, especially as the urban heat island continues to grow. If you want to see December snow, then travel. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

First flurries of the season here currently 

 

32 

 

Looks the Philly area is in for a nice surprise this morning 

Two days in a row with light snow in the morning.  Yesterday we had a coating which was gone by lunchtime.  Today a slightly heavier coating so far.  The heaviest amounts I have seen up in the Poconos (about 2000’) look to be about an inch.  Reminds me of some of the garbage events from last year.

[Allsnow]

@bluewave we are being talked about all over this forum because  we are taking posters snow away with our mjo talk haha

[JonClaw]

Flurries in downtown Brooklyn!

[kat5hurricane]

Flurries in Manhattan!!!  Feels like a blizzard compared to last winter.

[vegan_edible]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave we are being talked about all over this forum because  we are taking posters snow away with our mjo talk haha

yes, you two have indeed ruined meteorological winter with your mjo nonsense!  it will never snow again SOLEY because of you guys, why would you do this!?

[kat5hurricane]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave we are being talked about all over this forum because  we are taking posters snow away with our mjo talk haha

The crazy thing is that you guys are simply spitting facts and @bluewave is arguably the most objective and knowledgeable person on this forum right up there with @donsutherland1 who is another americanwx treasure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 5-10 or 6-10 day period could see cool readings. Tropical Tidbits is still using the old 1981-2020 base period, which understates the cold and overstates the warmth relative to the warmer 1991-2020 baseline that is now in use.

The warmth rebounds for a time (check out days 10-15). It's not extreme warmth, but readings wind up in the middle and perhaps upper 40s (45 is the end value for Central Park) by the end of the 0z EPS run in the NYC area. The latest CFSv2 weeklies keep the warm anomalies going through the end of the month. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a pattern evolution. If past years are representative, the change to a more favorable pattern might take somewhat longer than currently modeled. It seems that the weekly guidance has two big issues beyond two weeks: either a bias for continuity that frequently runs through weeks 5-6 or, when it breaks from continuity, the rushing of pattern changes. I still think January and February will offer opportunities for cold and snow. The last week of December could see cold start to return, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it takes until the first week in January.

There has been notable warming of the stratosphere, focused on 5 mb to 10 mb. However, there's still no forecast for the kind of wind reversal that defines major warming events through 10 days (ECMWF ensemble mean). For now, the stratospheric vortex still looks to remain weak through the foreseeable future, which should afford higher blocking possibilities. There is a risk that once the stratosphere cools, especially if there is no zonal wind reversal, that could allow the stratospheric polar vortex to strengthen. There's no guidance showing such an outcome, but it has happened in some past winters. Such a development would cause problems for January and perhaps beyond. I'm articulating this risk, but I don't think it is the most likely outcome right now.

Finally,there has been some chatter about extreme cold (e.g., single-digit-type cold for NYC) to end December/start January. I'm very skeptical of such calls. Numerous El Niño winters, even snowy ones, have not seen single-digit or colder peak cold in NYC.

Do you mean in a relative sense, or actually become stout? I think it will gather itself for a time in January, relatively speaking, but I would be stunned if the mid winter period ever features a particularly strong PV. I do, however, feel it will strengthen ahead of climo at the end of the season in March.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The crazy thing is that you guys are simply spitting facts and @bluewave is arguably the most objective and knowledgeable person on this forum right up there with @donsutherland1 who is another americanwx treasure.

Meanwhile they’re circling the wagons in the sne forum over a dusting while posting the 11-15 day gefs 

[vegan_edible]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Meanwhile they’re circling the wagons in the sne forum over a dusting while posting the 11-15 day gefs 

i think you actually broke the sne forum dude, like they all need some CBT and a nap so they can come back to reality