December 2023

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Had a nice burst of snow on the uws, more than just flurries for a couple minutes. 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

Yep it's a variation of the same theme every winter.    Although this year he isn't saying "You're canceling winter on ____________" (fill in preferred date)

[North and West]

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 
It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 
There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 
I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 
With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 
And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 
Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 
Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

.

[BxEngine]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

You mean he does what EVERYONE does and says the same thing every year. Being an anti weenie and repeating the same shit over and over doesnt make one better than the other. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

You mean he does what EVERYONE does and says the same thing every year. Being an anti weenie and repeating the same shit over and over doesnt make one better than the other. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep it's a variation of the same theme every winter.    Although this year he isn't saying "You're canceling winter on ____________" (fill in preferred date)

Not yet

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc metsfan is a mega weenie, does the same thing every year and then will say all the models sucks while he continues to chase fantasy snowstorms.  

I mean how am I a weenie here when I'm posting facts and Allsnow and Bluewave keep posting about warmth .

How come no one gets at them ?

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

Exactly. Terms like optimism and pessimism are only relevant in situations where your input can help to determine the actual outcome. To my knowledge, nobody on this forum or Wxtwitter that loves winter weather like us has invented a weather control device. But looking for the hints that enable us to successfully forecast the long range pattern is a big benefit to society. Especially in this age of rapid warming on a geological scale and extreme weather.

Maybe some on here incorrectly infer from my posts that I don’t like winter. This is pretty far from the truth. I was born a few days after an historic KU snowstorm. So it’s as close in weather terms to being born under and astrologically snowy sign.. When I point out the extreme ratio of something like 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 15-16 to only on cold one it’s not something that gives me pleasure. I don’t like extreme warmth and heat but just had to learn to adapt like everyone else. I would enjoy a meal at a favorite restaurant with even someone on the forum who disagrees with me most of the time. Since the common bond is the love for everything weather and climate and not our differences. I actually have a really great sense of humor and levity which may not always come across in my posts. So my main passion is looking for clues in order help us better forecast the weather. The reason my posts point out the warmth is because that has been our actual weather pattern of one new warm record after another for years.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I'm confused.  Is the Arctic supposed to re-freeze anytime soon?  Did I miss something?  I hope to see it.

Not sure why you you’re not grasping what I’m saying. Pre 1980s there was significantly more sea ice in the fall then there is now. As the summer melt out now exposes more area to solar insulation. Thus warmer fall/early winter temps in the Arctic our obvious cold air source. The Arctic Ocean still freezes over each winter though, and the darkness allows to cold to reload later in the winter. Thus exposing us to better source airmass’s later in the winter. 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I mean how am I a weenie here when I'm posting facts and Allsnow and Bluewave keep posting about warmth .

How come no one gets at them ?

I can't help you here bud.  There's nothing I could possibly say that will get through.  

[Rjay]

I want a holiday snowstorm so badly. 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I mean how am I a weenie here when I'm posting facts and Allsnow and Bluewave keep posting about warmth .

How come no one gets at them ?

You won the weenie of the year award and wore it as a badge of honor. I think you are trolling us all half the time to be honest lol 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I want a holiday snowstorm so badly. 

Been a long time....

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You won the weenie of the year award and wore it as a badge of honor. I think you are trolling us all half the time to be honest lol 

I never won it . Kevin beat me several years ago.

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Been a long time....

2002

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly. Terms like optimism and pessimism are only relevant in situations where your input can help to determine the actual outcome. To my knowledge, nobody on this forum or Wxtwitter that loves winter weather like us has invented a weather control device. But looking for the hints that enable us to successfully forecast the long range pattern is a big benefit to society. Especially in this age of rapid warming on a geological scale and extreme weather.

Maybe some on here incorrectly infer from my posts that I don’t like winter. This is pretty far from the truth. I was born a few days after an historic KU snowstorm. So it’s as close in weather terms to being born under and astrologically snowy sign.. When I point out the extreme ratio of something like 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 15-16 to only on cold one it’s not something that gives me pleasure. I don’t like extreme warmth and heat but just had to learn to adapt like everyone else. I would enjoy a meal at a favorite restaurant with even someone on the forum who disagrees with me most of the time. Since the common bond is the love for everything weather and climate and not our differences. I actually have a really great sense out humor and levity which may not always come across in my posts. So main main passion is looking for clues in order help us better forecast the weather in the geologically rapidly warming climate. 

In my time on these boards I have found you to be one of the most knowledgeable and objective posters that I know.  You provide very insightful analysis and substantiation to back it up.  I find that I have learned a great deal from the posts that you provide.  Thank you for your contributions.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I can't help you here bud.  There's nothing I could possibly say that will get through.  

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You won the weenie of the year award and wore it as a badge of honor. I think you are trolling us all half the time to be honest lol 

theres a weenie of the year award?? 

[psv88]

Just now, vegan_edible said:

theres a weenie of the year award?? 

Yea years ago there was. I was certain he had won it lol

[the_other_guy]

spectacular conditions today at Belleayre!

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2002

I'd even count Boxing day.   We've had some mid December storms, 2014 and 2020 but they were washed away by the annual xmas torch each year

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea years ago there was. I was certain he had won it lol

He'd win it now-Kevin has gone to the dark side in recent years of not expecting much

[vegan_edible]

12 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

spectacular conditions today at Belleayre!

v jealous, haven't skied in some years now. had my acl done a few years back and i'm not trying to jeopardize anymore precious skate time as i'm pushing 30 in a few years. need to get back at it though, skateboarding when its 30 degrees out isnt the move 

[North and West]

I want a holiday snowstorm so badly. 

.

[North and West]

You won the weenie of the year award and wore it as a badge of honor. I think you are trolling us all half the time to be honest lol 

.

[MJO812]

 

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies is still loaded during the holidays 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. 

It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. 

There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. 

I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. 

With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. 

And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. 
 

Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. 

Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

I have not seen any posts denying climate change.

I do contest that the last 5 year period represents a small window of time, and we need more time to confidently declare that this 5 year window is the new normal WRT snowfall specifically (temps to a certain degree, no pun intended). 

Also, whilst the MIA officially ended, it would not have produced static temps from that point thereafter. Rather, temperatures would continue to rise as they have been doing.

So, if an individual is not grasping the magnitude they are not incorrect OR correct. Even though we have incredibly intelligent posters of this forum, and I am lucky to be able to read from them, nobody knows DEFINITELY the magnitude of what is occurring, and what percentage is natural warming vs. human influence.

I only speak for myself, but I respect all posters regardless of their stance, even if they believe GW will put us underwater by March or we will have continuous blizzards weekly for the next ten years. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Only time will tell. Hopefully we all enjoy the ride.

[Rmine1]

Looks like a sound effect band right now over W Suffolk. Light snow temp 35 in brightwaters 

[lee59]

Sunday and Monday time frame is still looking real interesting.