December 2023

[EastonSN+]

11 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

That was a real dud here in CNJ....5 inches of sleet. And totally predictable, Mitch Volk was on here the night before saying that it was unlikely NYC and surroundings would see much snow. Based on March storms struggling to get over 10 inches.

Central park recorded 7.6. Bronx 10. Lga 7.1. JFK 5.1. I like Mitch but NYC did really well considering the ultimate track. The air mass ahead of the storm was cold enough for the results.

[EastonSN+]

While I had pretty high hopes for this year, I was not well versed enough in weather to know all El ninos are not alike. 

The Mets at AccuWeather never predicted a big snowfall winter (they do leave the door open for a big one).

"AccuWeather is predicting 18-26 inches of snow in New York City this winter, slightly below the historical average of 29.8 inches. It might take only one storm to surpass last winter's snowfall total."

"While snowfall totals are forecast to be much higher compared to last winter, the frequency of snowfall may not be that much higher. Last winter, accumulating snow fell on only four days. This upcoming winter, the number of snow days is predicted to be between four and seven."

 

[gravitylover]

I've had very light accumulating snow for about two hours now. I expected mood flakes not this but I'll take it! 

[EastonSN+]

Lol North Carolina beat my town for the first accumulation of the year.

Flatwood, albeit in the mountains, received 0.3 from the clipper.

 

[EastonSN+]

Thinking about it, how many accumulation snowfall events did cpk have in 10/11?

The big 3. The February storm that turned to rain before the pattern flip. The forgotten March overrunning event that dropped 4.5. 5 total?

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll we have been getting those regularly since the start of the month. In the old days, we didn’t regularly get 40°+ Decembers as frequently as we have since 2011. I bolded the 40°+Decembers since 2011.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	2021	43.8	0
4	1984	43.7	0
5	2006	43.6	0
6	2011	43.3	0
7	1998	43.1	0
8	1982	42.7	0
9	1990	42.6	0
10	1891	42.5	0
11	1994	42.2	0
12	1923	42.0	0
13	2012	41.5	0
14	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
17	1971	40.8	0
18	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
19	1957	40.2	0
20	2018	40.1	0

 

One thing I have to say, I am surprised how warm it was in years like 1956. 

My dad always made it sound like it never got above freezing from December 1st through March and snow was on the ground till mid April LOL.

1932 - my grandfather was the opposite and told me stories like the time he got a sled for Christmas and it did not snow the entire winter and was warm. He never thought winters of his childhood were anything special.

[North and West]

That's the problem with that silly term, it's arbitrary and the goal posts seem to change seasonally for many.  

Is a torch a nice, sunny day around 50°? It’s anything and everything to everyone.


.

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

While I had pretty high hopes for this year, I was not well versed enough in weather to know all El ninos are not alike. 

The Mets at AccuWeather never predicted a big snowfall winter (they do leave the door open for a big one).

"AccuWeather is predicting 18-26 inches of snow in New York City this winter, slightly below the historical average of 29.8 inches. It might take only one storm to surpass last winter's snowfall total."

"While snowfall totals are forecast to be much higher compared to last winter, the frequency of snowfall may not be that much higher. Last winter, accumulating snow fell on only four days. This upcoming winter, the number of snow days is predicted to be between four and seven."

 

So you don't have high hopes anymore because of this article ?

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It was never a torch. haha

Of course they said torch 

They said 2015 and that the mjo would slow in phase 4-7.

Mjo is rolling along right now.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So you don't have high hopes anymore because of this article ?

It's more that I had a blanket thought that most El ninos are snowy here. Just like some la ninas are favorable, some El ninos are not. 

[qg_omega]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm. 

40s are normal and cold for NYC in December, multiple 50s to 60s have become the new normal and we likely see that this weekend and very likely additional days this month

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Of course they said torch 

They said 2015 and that the mjo would slow in phase 4-7.

Mjo is rolling along right now.

 

Who predicted a 2015 redux?  I haven't seen that anywhere.   I saw warm/snowless but not a +10 month

[Tatamy]

40 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I've had very light accumulating snow for about two hours now. I expected mood flakes not this but I'll take it! 

A few light mood flakes in the air here too.

[FPizz]

Some flurries flying

[WarrenCtyWx]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thinking about it, how many accumulation snowfall events did cpk have in 10/11?

The big 3. The February storm that turned to rain before the pattern flip. The forgotten March overrunning event that dropped 4.5. 5 total?

There were also two additional minor events that January: one on the 7th and one on the 21st.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course they said torch 

They said 2015 and that the mjo would slow in phase 4-7.

Mjo is rolling along right now.

 

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected  Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.
 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected  Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.
 

Huge change and kudos to you for understanding the impact of the very warm waters in 4 5 6 slowing down the convection 

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected  Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.
 

The GEFS one for comparison

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected  Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.
 

We shall see but right now , nothing points to a stall .

I guess we have to wait and see what happens near the holidays. 

 

Also , It takes 7 days for th.e MJO to go through 4 5 6 

The slowup will be in phase 8

[MJO812]

Just now, Eugene said:

So should I plant my palm trees or not?

Yea the palm tree post was ludicrous. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Huge change and kudos to you for understanding the impact of the very warm waters in 4 5 6 slowing down the convection 

Nothing has changed. Come on now.

I don't get the mixed signals from different people and meteorologists moving forward , even on different subforums here.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Eugene said:

Some have a warm bias because of their climate change beliefs so everything they say or do is based off that. Meanwhile it’s cloudy, cold with light snow falling right now 

Wow congrats 

It's 40 and cloudy here 

[Tatamy]

Steady light snow at 34 degrees.  Visibility 1 mile with this channelized vorticity activity dropping south from the lakes.  This has been well modeled for a few days now.  Not really sticking.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thinking about it, how many accumulation snowfall events did cpk have in 10/11?

The big 3. The February storm that turned to rain before the pattern flip. The forgotten March overrunning event that dropped 4.5. 5 total?

I recorded 9 1" or greater events that winter. 2013-14 and 14-15 I had 13 such events a piece

[rclab]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I've had very light accumulating snow for about two hours now. I expected mood flakes not this but I'll take it! 

 

59 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Currently snowing lightly. Looks beautiful on my palm trees!

 

41 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

A few light mood flakes in the air here too.

 

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Some flurries flying

 

14 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Some have a warm bias because of their climate change beliefs so everything they say or do is based off that. Meanwhile it’s cloudy, cold with light snow falling right now 

 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow congrats 

It's 40 and cloudy here 

Good morning everyone. As per D I T’s snowfall description in the New England sub forum, “Tiny weenie flakes and it’s very difficult to remain safe.” Please be careful out there. Stay well, as always …..

 

[Blue Dream]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow congrats 

It's 40 and cloudy here 

why does snowman19 weenie everything you say?  Asking for a friend

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

why does snowman19 weenie everything you say?  Asking for a friend

He wants to make sure we all know its going to be a warm and snowless month

[Brian5671]

Filtered sun here no snow flurries  37 degrees

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eugene said:

So should I plant my palm trees or not?

You are late to the game. They have been widely scattered around the Long Island South Shore for a decade now. But only the ones that are cold hardy. Numerous December days in the 50s to near 60 with a sprinkling of near average days in between  is a big help to people with reduced heating bill costs. A NYC December average In the low 40s is the same as the November average in the late 1800s. Our new January average in the low 30s is the same as the December average temperature in the late 1800s. So December has become more of a fall month than a winter one as it now takes winter later to get going. I think we got spoiled with all those cold and snowy Decembers from 2000 to 2010. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are late to the game. They have been widely scattered around the Long Island South Shore for a decade now. But only the ones that are cold hardy. Numerous December days in the 50s to near 60 with a sprinkling of near average days in between  is a big help to people with reduced heating bill costs. A NYC December average In the low 40s is the same as the November average in the late 1800s. Our new January average in the low 30s is the same as the December average temperature in the late 1800s. So December has become more of a fall month than a winter one as it now takes winter later to get going. I think we got spoiled with all those cold and snowy Decembers from 2000 to 2010. 

I think it’s a feedback do to lack of sea ice. Once the Arctic freezes back over, cold air is able to build. I think it’s at least part of why we have been seeing winters become increasingly backloaded.