December 2023

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

Have a set of old DIFAX maps framed on my office wall.  Event was well signaled 5 days in advance.  All three streams phased from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast.  If track was 100 miles further east most of this forum would have seen a snow event rivaling the Blizzard of '88.

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The flip to sleet and rain was well forecast so it was not a surprise like we saw in some storms.   The flash freeze was something though-back roads were almost impassable in spots due to the ice/snow/ruts

Amazing memory. Norwalk through Fairfield reported 11.5 inches of snow before the flip. 

The flash freeze made it an absolute glacier.

 

[EastonSN+]

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

It’s amazing we got that much on a horrible track. Testament to the airmass ahead of the system 

[EastonSN+]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay, in deference to the above ... I like reading this from the MJO desk:

• The RMM-based MJO signal continues to remain amplified, with the enhanced
convective envelope approaching the Maritime Continent. Dynamical models depict
continued eastward propagation during the next 2-3 weeks.
• The dominance of low-frequency modes (ENSO, IOD) has been declining over the last
few weeks, while the MJO has become stronger and more coherent.

I also just want to remind - the MJO is not a pattern drive.  It's a modulator.  It will positively(negatively) interfere with the surrounding super synopsis ... if the latter is receptive(not receptive) to it's forcing.  Part of which is the Pacific ENSO aspects ( down stream of the IOD brick wall of head-on collision sudden pattern death!) ... Anyway, this particular MJO "means more" than priors if you ask me, because as they hint ... this projection of it has more a positive interference.

I just checked the overnight numerical telecons and the EPO is suddenly collapsed toward neutral between the 12th and 20th. That could be an early nod to physical forcing transmitting down wind of the erstwhile -WPO.  Which is actually the lagged correlation between those fields in the total Pacific arc manifold. 

Short words ... yeah, there's hope approaching the 20th for winter enthusiasts. 

Great post by TIP.

YES he is in the NE forum and YES even though he is in that forum EPO and WPO affect our weather too.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing we got that much on a horrible track. Testament to the airmass ahead of the system 

I thought the worst large storm track to dump a lot of snow was March of 2017. Coastal hugger and still landed 9.5 inches of snow and thunder sleet.

93 was a little further offshore but much much more intense.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing we got that much on a horrible track. Testament to the airmass ahead of the system 

Also the snow broke out when the storm was still off the coast of savannah because it was so massive

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Also the snow broke out when the storm was still off the coast of savannah because it was so massive

Lots of overrunning 

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

I worked at a grocery store at the time as well, absolutely insane, record sales for the time. The cops had to get called around 2am Saturday morning as two guys get into a fistfight over what was the last of an item, bread I believe. I drove home early Saturday afternoon in raging blizzard conditions, I couldn’t tell what color the traffic lights were until already into the intersection, fortunately there were few out at that time. I had my mothers Chevy Corsica (front wheel drive) that day which was great in the snow, going right through our unplowed street, snow coming up onto and across the hood (the Corsica had a low profile up front).  My rear wheel drive Regal would’ve never made it as I used to fish-tale on rainy days in that car LOL.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

March 93 and the December 92 nor’easter are the first storms I have real solid memories of being 10 and 11.

Living near the bay both storms had major coastal flooding. 93 caused mini icebergs to from and float around in the surge, which all froze solid  after. Plows didn’t have a chance and I vividly remember them using a bulldozer to plow the ice at my elementary school. Were we were sledding after the storm. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Have a set of old DIFAX maps framed on my office wall.  Event was well signaled 5 days in advance.  All three streams phased from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast.  If track was 100 miles further east most of this forum would have seen a snow event rivaling the Blizzard of '88.

The triple phase of that storm was noted to potentially have had some influence from Pinatubo’s atmospheric impacts via disrupted jet patterns (more of an indirect effect, if at all). There’s a reference on the main wiki page for the 93 Storm though it’s generally pretty broad and nonspecific.

Again more the domain of people here who know atmospheric physics but I suppose the thinking is that large sulfurous / ash laden eruptions can lead to unusual / disrupted jet patterns that can increase the odds of something like the 93 superstorm happening. 

Always thought that interesting even if difficult to conclusively link. 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of overrunning 

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is nice in the mid to long range

[TugHillMatt]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is nice in the mid to long range

Wow, you went at least 5 minutes without "snow"man weenieing you. So petty... lol

[NittanyWx]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep it will continue as it catches on to the MJO plots.

The model itself is forecasting the variables that are plotted into an MJO plot.  Please explain how a model can catch up to its own forecast?

 

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I can’t believe it’s been thirty years since 1993-1994, and I wish the younger people on the boards here could have seen it through a sixth grader’s eyes who grew up watching TWC religiously *and* having nothing the prior five years, outside of March 1993.

might as well go use my rotary phone now


.

this x1000.

That icy glaze in early January that set the foundation for the rest of the winter!

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Also the snow broke out when the storm was still off the coast of savannah because it was so massive

100 year storm.

[EastonSN+]

This storm HUGGED the coast with a worse air mass than 93 and still hammered. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This storm HUGGED the coast with a worse air mass than 93 and still hammered. 

1993 was way better IMBY. 3/2017 was maybe 3” of slush to rain which washed it all away. When 24 hours before it was expected to be 12-18”. It’s one of the most disappointing storms I ever experienced. 

[ForestHillWx]

‘93 was great; ‘96 was the one for me though. 

I vividly remember Al Roker bumping projected totals each update, all the while my dad saying “don’t worry you’ll have school”. 

2 days later he came home driving in a front end loader to clear the end of our dead end street as we were plowed in.

 I don’t think we had school for 2.5 days. 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

1993 was way better IMBY. 3/2017 was maybe 3” of slush to rain which washed it all away. When 24 hours before it was expected to be 12-18”. It’s one of the most disappointing storms I ever experienced. 

That was a classic correction N and W last minute...we were in a great spot 24 hrs out but the usual correction occurred a bit late that go around.   Still got a foot here and then some sleet/ZR/rain to end it.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century. 

I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though.  That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland.  Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze.  A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley.  Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area.

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, below are the ECMWF monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts for the Northeast (I added the black line to demarcate the "normal" figure on the charts). The purple is the model forecast:

[It's Always Sunny]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

The MJO has successfully been used as a forecast tool for a while now. But the rapid expansion of the WPAC pool has slowed and amplified it in the warmer phases in recent times. Numerous papers were published in the last 5 years on this topic. So you are hearing about it now more because of the warming influence for us plus more understanding how it’s altering our local climate. Everything from mountain torques to sudden stratospheric warming have there roots in the MJO dynamics. So it’s right up there in importance with El Niño and La Niña. The key is figuring out how the ENSO and MJO will interact and drive the Rossby wave pattern. 

I’m well aware, I just find it entertaining how some view it as the be all end all. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I’m well aware, I just find it entertaining how some view it as the be all end all. 

The be all end all is getting the pattern right and finding the appropriate tools to get it done.

[guinness77]

I know it’s still 5 or so days away but Sunday night/Monday early morning looks like it could get nasty, especially the further east you go.  

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I know it’s still 5 or so days away but Sunday night/Monday early morning looks like it could get nasty, especially the further east you go.  

We know that we can get Great Lakes cutters in El Niños as well as La Ninas. But some of the solutions showing up look as strong if not stronger than any December La Niña cutter of the last 3 years. It will be interesting to see if some of the stronger solutions verify.

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We know that we can get Great Lakes cutters in El Niños as well as La Ninas. But some of the solutions showing up look as strong if not stronger than any December La Niña cutter of the last 3 years. It will be interesting to see if some of the stronger solutions verify.

Winds definitely look like a real threat for coastal areas, if the models maintain the intensity, as we get closer to the event.

[Brian5671]

Just now, uofmiami said:

Winds definitely look like a real threat for coastal areas, if the models maintain the intensity, as we get closer to the event.

SE winds tend to do more damage since prevailing winds are out of the west-so trees tend to bend that way.  On the plus side-all the leaves are off so that will help limit downed limbs

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We know that we can get Great Lakes cutters in El Niños as well as La Ninas. But some of the solutions showing up look as strong if not stronger than any December La Niña cutter of the last 3 years. It will be interesting to see if some of the stronger solutions verify.

Not having the -nao block so far south I think is helping this cutter really ramp up. The past few Nina’s the storms would dig out west and run into a road block with block so far south