December 2023

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I would hope most see that JB sells hype.   He is a often a good read but you have to take into account his hype and cold bias....

Apparently he's smoking some of what this guy smoked

 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Apparently he's smoking some of what this guy smoked

 

He has 218,000 subscribers.  YouTube is paying him well.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Apparently he's smoking some of what this guy smoked

 

I saw that too and laughed at it. Why would anyone pay attention to JB? Frankly, these long term forecasts remind of the guys at Bloomberg trying to predict the economy.....they're pretty good at explaining why they were wrong.....I'd throw fisheries biologists in there too but that's a little too inside baseball.....

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think January 1998 was a case of the super El Niño combined with MJO 8 which is a warm pattern for us. That’s why all the talk of the MJO getting to phase 8 and cooling things off isn’t what we would expect during an El Niño.

Pretty good match MJO 8 and El Nino

It was downright balmy and stormy. Blew my front screen door clean off when I opened it.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I can't wait to see all the weenies I have received once we turn cold and snow near the holidays .

We love ya. Don't ever change. But I don't really expect to need the snowblower this winter. Don't even know if it it'll start. 

[snowman19]

 
I'll go one further.  Models have gotten a lot better at forecasting the MJO and subsequent RWT over the past 15 years.  Part of the challenge is figuring out 'are you better than the model at forecasting the MJO?'  And more importantly, are you better at diagnosing the downstream pattern than the model.
 
I think a lot of folks treat the MJO like it's still 2009 and you had clear skill advantages and especially so in certain patterns.   Not sure that's the case as much anymore given the improvements in the NWP space.
 
It's a tricky game of when you're actually adding skill vs when you're actually taking decent modeling and making it worse with your own tinkering.

IMO the MJO wave is going to slow down dramatically, maybe stall once it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the MJO wave is going to slow down dramatically, maybe stall once it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave

There is no sign of that happening at all. So many people wishing for warmth on here. 

[vegan_edible]

0z GEFS trending cooler in the long range

 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

0z GEFS trending cooler in the long range

 

Yep it will continue as it catches on to the MJO plots.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I'll go one further.  Models have gotten a lot better at forecasting the MJO and subsequent RWT over the past 15 years.  Part of the challenge is figuring out 'are you better than the model at forecasting the MJO?'  And more importantly, are you better at diagnosing the downstream pattern than the model.

 

I think a lot of folks treat the MJO like it's still 2009 and you had clear skill advantages and especially so in certain patterns.   Not sure that's the case as much anymore given the improvements in the NWP space.

 

It's a tricky game of when you're actually adding skill vs when you're actually taking decent modeling and making it worse with your own tinkering.

One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warm phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8, that is also a warmer signal from December into January with an El Niño.

New run

Old run

 

[MJO812]

Euro monthlies look great for alot of areas.

Not shocking at all

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

 

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

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MJO is not stalling . It's moving along like it was forecasted to do.

Believe whoever you want 

[Allsnow]

Looks like 60’s  Saturday and Sunday 

Get outside and enjoy it!!!

[the_other_guy]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro monthlies look great for alot of areas.

Not shocking at all

I want to see airmass and storm track meet. this week just a continuation of the bad pattern we’ve been seeing for the past several winters let’s see what next week holds

[North and West]

MJO is not stalling . It's moving along like it was forecasted to do.
Believe whoever you want 

Oh, don’t worry, I have zero idea of what’s going on when you guys argue. I just like snowstorms and dogs and funny comics.


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[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

Latest olr maps have the mjo wave weakening in p7 while more convection fires up on the boarder of 2/3 

[uofmiami]

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

It was downright balmy and stormy. Blew my front screen door clean off when I opened it.

The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible. 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible. 

97-98 had alot of coating to 1 inch events here-we got something like 20 inches on the year but there was no moderate/heavy snowstorm....

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro monthlies look great for alot of areas.

Not shocking at all

This map is also encouraging:

[psv88]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible. 

The 93 superstorm underwhelmed on LI but we still got a foot of snow which froze over so you could walk on the snow pack.  It was the biggest snowfall of my young life at the time so I was ecstatic 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The 93 superstorm underwhelmed on LI but we still got a foot of snow which froze over so you could walk on the snow pack.  It was the biggest snowfall of my young life at the time so I was ecstatic 

The flip to sleet and rain was well forecast so it was not a surprise like we saw in some storms.   The flash freeze was something though-back roads were almost impassable in spots due to the ice/snow/ruts

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The flip to sleet and rain was well forecast so it was not a surprise like we saw in some storms.   The flash freeze was something though-back roads were almost impassable in spots due to the ice/snow/ruts

That’s true, but at 9 years old I was praying the forecast was wrong 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That’s true, but at 9 years old I was praying the forecast was wrong 

ha, me too-I was at my parents' house outside philly for college spring break-heard the pingers hitting the house and knew it was over (never went to rain there-only sleet then back to snow)-fa enough west to prevent rain....

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The 93 superstorm underwhelmed on LI but we still got a foot of snow which froze over so you could walk on the snow pack.  It was the biggest snowfall of my young life at the time so I was ecstatic 

I vaguely remember a lot of flooding in Long Beach with the fallen snow, and a lot of it freezing over after the storm passed. The coastal flooding caused all of it to turn into icebergs. I remember tons of ice in 93-94 and praying like you did that the 2/4/1995 storm wouldn’t change to rain. Then we had the 95-96 blitz and being amazed at the amounts of snow. 

[Allsnow]

1993 was a wild a storm, I remember after a foot the wind driven sleet felt like rocks pelting you. 
 

I believe we had a clipper in early March that year that dropped 2-4 

[Volcanic Winter]

I was alive for 93 but have no clear memories of it or anything prior to Jan ‘96. Not a bad first snow memory, though. 

Definitely one of the early events in my life that set me onto the path of lifelong love / appreciation of earth sciences. I remember renting those old VHS compilation tornado videos around that time and being amazed. 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1993 was a wild a storm, I remember after a foot the wind driven sleet felt like rocks pelting you. 
 

I believe we had a clipper in early March that year that dropped 2-4 

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

[North and West]

I was alive for 93 but have no clear memories of it or anything prior to Jan ‘96. Not a bad first snow memory, though. 
Definitely one of the early events in my life that set me onto the path of lifelong love / appreciation of earth sciences. I remember renting those old VHS compilation tornado videos around that time and being amazed. 

I can’t believe it’s been thirty years since 1993-1994, and I wish the younger people on the boards here could have seen it through a sixth grader’s eyes who grew up watching TWC religiously *and* having nothing the prior five years, outside of March 1993.

might as well go use my rotary phone now


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