December 2023

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Oh my 

How about we all agree that we want a white Christmas. 

[It's Always Sunny]

I agree the pattern becomes more favorable but the cold may not be there to feed it, especially down in the NYC/LI area.

[WX-PA]

Just now, MJO812 said:

How about we all agree that we want a white Christmas. 

That would be nice..we were close to it is 97 snowed a few days after Christmas... Strong nino years do favor Jan and Feb for snow and some are blizzards like 66,83 and 16..we'll see!

[Volcanic Winter]

25 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I agree the pattern becomes more favorable but the cold may not be there to feed it, especially down in the NYC/LI area.

Help Wanted: Cold air in NYC metro area. Must be available 7 days a week, but especially prior to unsettled weather (must be available during bad weather, 1/2 pay for leaving early the day after). Temps over 40 need not apply. Salary commensurate to producing 10/1 ratios or better. 

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Help Wanted: Cold air in NYC metro area. Must be available 7 days a week, but especially prior to unsettled weather (must be available during bad weather, 1/2 pay for leaving early the day after). Temps over 40 need not apply. Salary commensurate to producing 10/1 ratios or better. 

pto march-november AND a gold plan HMO

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

He lives in Maine 

My BIL had his plow out this morning....hates snow. Augusta area.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Having analyzed everything I personally don't see a huge signal for any big storm or cold air outbreak this month. I think attention should be focused on January's potential given current state of the stratosphere. Synoptically, this month holds a mild pattern look.

Generally in CNJ if it doesn't snow in Dec you can write the rest of the season off. I think Jan 2016 was a rare exception, maybe Jan 2015 not sure. Of course the sample size is small but I remember reading this some 30 years ago from a Rutgers met and it seems pretty reliable.

[WX-PA]

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Generally in CNJ if it doesn't snow in Dec you can write the rest of the season off. I think Jan 2016 was a rare exception, maybe Jan 2015 not sure. Of course the sample size is small but I remember reading this some 30 years ago from a Rutgers met and it seems pretty reliable.

December 77 NYC had 0,4 inches of snow...The rest of the winter was one of the best.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

I guess they just prefer everyone lies so they can hear what they want to hear, just like when the September heatwave was being downplayed.  

Didnt Sept end a decimal point positive? Or was it 9/2015 all over again?

 

Too many Gospel preachers on here when they have Mad magazine in their hands

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, WX-PA said:

December 77 NYC had 0,4 inches of snow...The rest of the winter was one of the best.

If we get to 1/15 and there’s still no sign of a cold pattern change I’d start to worry then. Otherwise Nino December’s are usually lousy. It would be nice to have something in the bank this month but it’s not necessary for an above average snow winter. Look how Dec 2015 was and what we ended with. 

[North and West]

.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get to 1/15 and there’s still no sign of a cold pattern change I’d start to worry then. Otherwise Nino December’s are usually lousy. It would be nice to have something in the bank this month but it’s not necessary for an above average snow winter. Look how Dec 2015 was and what we ended with. 

Exactly. As far as I’m concerned we are doing just fine with a strong Nino. Could easily be endless 50s/60s. And anything will be better than last winter. Even if we only make it to average it will seem great. 

[MJO812]

Torch ?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. As far as I’m concerned we are doing just fine with a strong Nino. Could easily be endless 50s/60s. And anything will be better than last winter. Even if we only make it to average it will seem great. 

Most people would take average in a heartbeat. The fear is single digit snowfall again

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most people would take average in a heartbeat. The fear is single digit snowfall again

i really doubt it. that is super rare and there isn't a reason to believe we won't get a favorable pattern once into the back half of winter this year

[vegan_edible]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Torch ?

lmao homie posts a map from the euro and gets weenied. let him chill

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ENS and extended products look like that as they transition to a more favorable pattern during holiday week

If you're talking about the EC Weekly 500, it's missing any material source region and that trof is pretty empty.  Essentially transporting mediocre Pacific air amid some storminess.

 

Again, for the purposes of this winter you're looking for a source region build with Nino tendency to ridge out west.  So in those breaks synoptically between ridges (you almost always get them), gonna really look to see if anything decent drains into W Canada.  That's 90% of my focus right now.  I liked the trends today a bit towards the end of the run today for that happening.  But I need to see more synoptically for me to believe in a loading pattern that could deliver anything Christmas week.  I don't have enough of a feel for what any +PNA or whatever would be transporting.  Risk is a +PNA is just bringing in some modulated weak air and any potential system wouldn't have much to work with.

 

My advice to this forum is focus on the source and less so the MJO.  MJO 8 isn't the be all/end all for snow.   Doesn't magically give you a source region.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

If you're talking about the EC Weekly 500, it's missing any material source region and that trof is pretty empty, transporting mediocre Pacific air amid some storminess.

 

Again, for the purposes of this winter you're looking to for a source region with Nino tendency to ridge out west.  So in those breaks synoptically between ridges, gonna really look to see if anything drains into W Canada.  That's 90% of my focus right now.  I liked the trends today a bit towards the end of the run today.  But I need to see more synoptically for me to believe a loading pattern that could deliver anything Christmas week.  I don't have enough of a feel for what any +PNA or whatever would be transporting.  Risk is a +PNA is just bringing in some modulated weak air and any potential system wouldn't have much to work with.

 

My advice to this forum is focus on the source and less so the MJO.

idk, this develops a pretty nice source region as heights increase into AK and the NAO trends negative. this would be a cold pattern. nothing frigid, but cold given that we're into early Jan at this point. Christmas might be a tad too early... maybe a few days after before we start talking anything bigger

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk, this develops a pretty nice source region as heights increase into AK and the NAO trends negative. this would be a cold pattern. nothing frigid, but cold given that we're into early Jan at this point. Christmas might be a tad too early... maybe a few days after before we start talking anything bigger

It has been really consistent.  I have no clue how people are dismissing it.

[NittanyWx]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk, this develops a pretty nice source region as heights increase into AK and the NAO trends negative. this would be a cold pattern. nothing frigid, but cold given that we're into early Jan at this point. Christmas might be a tad too early... maybe a few days after before we start talking anything bigger

Well you were talking Holiday week in your post and my point is 'what air are you advecting'?

 

If you're saying more towards January, I think you'd have a better case for it since there's potential for retrograde into EPO regions if you take that model verbatim. 

 

That Alaska look last week of December isn't what you want though.

[WX-PA]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Well you were talking Holiday week in your post and my point is 'what air are you advecting'?

 

If you're saying more towards January, I think you'd have a better case for it since there's potential for retrograde into EPO regions if you take that model verbatim. 

 

That Alaska look last week of December isn't what you want though.

I see a trough in the east. It's better than having a ridge there. I think you can snow with that look but who knows.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

If you're talking about the EC Weekly 500, it's missing any material source region and that trof is pretty empty.  Essentially transporting mediocre Pacific air amid some storminess.

 

Again, for the purposes of this winter you're looking for a source region build with Nino tendency to ridge out west.  So in those breaks synoptically between ridges (you almost always get them), gonna really look to see if anything decent drains into W Canada.  That's 90% of my focus right now.  I liked the trends today a bit towards the end of the run today for that happening.  But I need to see more synoptically for me to believe in a loading pattern that could deliver anything Christmas week.  I don't have enough of a feel for what any +PNA or whatever would be transporting.  Risk is a +PNA is just bringing in some modulated weak air and any potential system wouldn't have much to work with.

 

My advice to this forum is focus on the source and less so the MJO.  MJO 8 isn't the be all/end all for snow.   Doesn't magically give you a source region.

Plus people have to realize that MJO 8 isn’t necessarily cold in December during an El Niño. And that is if we even make it that far. One of the model biases for the ensembles week 2 is to dampen the tropical convection. Sometimes individual OP or ensemble runs can be more informative than a smoothed out lo res mean. So when people look to the end of the run and see the convection weakening it’s often the signal getting washed out in the long range model noise. And not the convection in the warm phases weakening.  Then we have the well documented lag with MJO where we are still get a previous phase conditions for up to week following passage. So this is one of the reasons the warm phases tend to outlast what people expect. 

[North and West]

It has been really consistent.  I have no clue how people are dismissing it.

Probably because they’re generally too negative and you’re often too positive. Not right or wrong.

The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.


.

[It's Always Sunny]

I feel like I’ve heard more about the MJO driving this winter’s pattern than in past years. As Nittany suggested there’s far more to it. I literally feel like someone sold a cheap tabloid about how MJO drives all things winter and everyone ran home to hang it on the fridge.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt Sept end a decimal point positive? Or was it 9/2015 all over again?

 

Too many Gospel preachers on here when they have Mad magazine in their hands

The 91-20 baseline is now so warm that a modest +1.7 is still a top 10 warmest temperature.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
1	2015	70.9	0
2	2005	70.2	0
3	2018	69.8	0
4	2021	69.6	0
-	1980	69.6	0
5	2017	69.0	0
-	2011	69.0	0
6	2016	68.9	0
7	2023	68.6	+1.7
-	1998	68.6	0
8	2010	68.3	0
9	2022	68.2	0
10	1983	68.1	0
-	1971	68.1	0

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I feel like I’ve heard more about the MJO driving this winter’s pattern than in past years. As Nittany suggested there’s far more to it. I literally feel like someone sold a cheap tabloid about how MJO drives all things winter and everyone ran home to hang it on the fridge.

The past few years the mjo stuff is getting more and more.  A few Twitter guys with big followings post about it and then everyone latches on to their teets and think they got it all figured out.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I feel like I’ve heard more about the MJO driving this winter’s pattern than in past years. As Nittany suggested there’s far more to it. I literally feel like someone sold a cheap tabloid about how MJO drives all things winter and everyone ran home to hang it on the fridge.

The MJO has successfully been used as a forecast tool for a while now. But the rapid expansion of the WPAC pool has slowed and amplified it in the warmer phases in recent times. Numerous papers were published in the last 5 years on this topic. So you are hearing about it now more because of the warming influence for us plus more understanding how it’s altering our local climate. Everything from mountain torques to sudden stratospheric warming have there roots in the MJO dynamics. So it’s right up there in importance with El Niño and La Niña. The key is figuring out how the ENSO and MJO will interact and drive the Rossby wave pattern. 

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The past few years the mjo stuff is getting more and more.  A few Twitter guys with big followings post about it and then everyone latches on to their teets and think they got it all figured out.

The MJO has a meaningful influence on patterns, but its impact can be muted or overwhelmed by other variables. Two examples include January 1993 and January 1998. Both months wound up much warmer than normal, despite the MJO's passing through Phases 8-1-2 for 13 days in 1993 and 10 days in 1998. Here's how those two cases fared when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a high amplitude in January.

[WX-PA]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The MJO has a meaningful influence on patterns, but its impact can be muted or overwhelmed by other variables. Two examples include January 1993 and January 1998. Both months wound up much warmer than normal, despite the MJO's passing through Phases 8-1-2 for 13 days in 1993 and 10 days in 1998. Here's how those two cases fared when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a high amplitude in January.

Great research Don..we are doomed lol

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Great research Don..we are doomed lol

That's not at all what he said lol.