December 2023

[NittanyWx]

I see a lot of Nino standing wave here.  Which isn't terrible in most circumstances and you can get some Kelvin waves to leak east out of that.

 

But, and I'm gonna keep saying this, we need some help with source region and building some snow pack to the west still, in my view before I can start to take storm risk seriously. 

 

It's not an all out torch, but it's still relatively mild.

[NittanyWx]

Also, for the life of me I don't understand all the fighting about which phase the MJO is in and how phase 8 fixes everything.

 

You need a loading pattern for a source, you need a source region regardless.  That source region can come from wave breaking, stratospheric fluxes, etc etc.  Feel like in winter everyone thinks the MJO is the solution to all problems and I don't think that's necessarily true.

December's are tough in Nino years as the continent is often flooded with Pac air.  We're seeing that play out right now.  

[North and West]

Also, for the life of me I don't understand all the fighting about which phase the MJO is in and how phase 8 fixes everything.
 
You need a loading pattern for a source, you need a source region regardless.  That source region can come from wave breaking, stratospheric fluxes, etc etc.  Feel like in winter everyone thinks the MJO is the solution to all problems and I don't think that's necessarily true.
December's are tough in Nino years as the continent is often flooded with Pac air.  We're seeing that play out right now.  

Questioning why people are here fighting over things they can’t control?



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[wishcast_hater]

December's are tough in Nino years as the continent is often flooded with Pac air.  We're seeing that play out right now.  

La Niña and El Niño both suck apparently.
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[Dan76]

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

….meanwhile severe thunderstorm warnings now in western NY

Same batch that delayed  steelers game ?

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

 

La Niña and El Niño both suck apparently.
.

 

And neutral don't forget neutral

[psv88]

0.80” today. 
 

like that famous song, cold December Ra…

[Roger Smith]

GFS run looks similar to Dec 1967, stayed mild to about 22nd and flipped to cold, very cold first two weeks of Jan 1968.

I don't foresee entire winter staying mild like last winter, more of an oscillating pattern, some colder spells. Still believe an energy peak around Dec 26-27 could be a snowstorm scenario. Looking at 16d GFS (Dec 19), if actual pattern resembled it, would expect closed low to drop from PAC NW to TX and storm would form in eastern Gulf. If not sufficient blocking to N, NE of NY-PA, could be a strong cutter instead. Anyway, some kind of active wx likely Dec 26-27. 

[lee59]

.74 inch of rain here today.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

 

La Niña and El Niño both suck apparently.
.

 

I know people hear terms like MJO, PDO, El Niño, La Niña, etc and it can get lost in the translation. So a simplified version is using the term marine heatwaves. These are just blobs of much normal than normal ocean temperatures. Unfortunately as the planet warms, most of the heat actually goes into the oceans. So we have many warm blobs in the tropical and subtropical oceans.

Since the Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet and lies just west of North America, it exerts a super sized influence on our weather. Thunderstorms gravitate to the areas of warmer waters. These create giant atmospheric waves which influence where the ridges and troughs will set up. Sometimes, we get standing waves that get stuck and drive more extreme patterns here of mostly warmth but on rare occasions cold.

Unfortunately, when the Central to Western Pacific basin is much warmer than other regions, the thunderstorms line up there. And thunderstorms in those regions drive warmer patterns for us. It also also been one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. So this is why people have been referring to La Niña background state. 

When the MJO is active like it is now in the warmer phases, it can take a longer time getting to cooler phases since the Western Pacific is so warm. The MJO numbers are just regions on a map where the thunderstorms are concentrating. Plus when you have convection firing in multi warm regions like we have now, it can come out more as a chord than an individual note. 

So all these factors in recent years have been conspiring to making the Pacific Jet stronger than average which in term floods North America with mild Pacific air like we are seeing this month and many other recent ones.
 

 

[495weatherguy]

On 11/30/2023 at 7:44 AM, SnoSki14 said:

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know people hear terms like MJO, PDO, El Niño, La Niña, etc and it can get lost in the translation. So a simplified version is using the term marine heatwaves. These are just blobs of much normal than normal ocean temperatures. Unfortunately as the planet warms, most of the heat actually goes into the oceans. So we have many warm blobs in the tropical and subtropical oceans.

Since the Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet and lies just west of North America, it exerts a super sized influence on our weather. Thunderstorms gravitate to the areas of warmer waters. These create giant atmospheric waves which influence where the ridges and troughs will set up. Sometimes, we get standing waves that get stuck and drive more extreme patterns here of mostly warmth but on rare occasions cold.

Unfortunately, when the Central to Western Pacific basin is much warmer than other regions, the thunderstorms line up there. And thunderstorms in those regions drive warmer patterns for us. It also also been one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. So this is why people have been referring to La Niña background state. 

When the MJO is active like it is now in the warmer phases, it can take a longer time getting to cooler phases since the Western Pacific is so warm. The MJO numbers are just regions on a map where the thunderstorms are concentrating. Plus when you have convection firing in multi warm regions like we have now, it can come out more as a chord than an individual note. 

So all these factors in recent years have been conspiring to making the Pacific Jet stronger than average which in term floods North America with mild Pacific air like we are seeing this month and many other recent ones.
 

 

Thank you for the explanation!   

[Allsnow]

@bluewave right in time for the solstice 60 degree temperature 

[MJO812]

Look how weak the wave is . That is why there is no torch.

 

[EastonSN+]

Timing could not be better for phase 8. Will probably be delaying a couple days, however looks good.

I could be mistaken, however if those outliers in 6 and 7 are correct it can "punch" the PV.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Timing could not be better for phase 8. Will probably be delaying a couple days, however looks good.

I could be mistaken, however if those outliers in 6 and 7 are correct it can "punch" the PV.

Look how fast they are traveling. That's what we want to see.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave right in time for the solstice 60 degree temperature 

 

Yeah, pretty much like clockwork every year. It’s impressive that all 3 ensembles have the familiar Aleutian ridge, Western trough, Eastern ridge pattern near the end of their runs. So the same stagnant pattern of recent years whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña. 
 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave right in time for the solstice 60 degree temperature 

384 ? Really ?

I would have been weenies about 10 times if I posted this.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty much like clockwork every year. It’s impressive that all 3 ensembles have the familiar Aleutian ridge, Western trough, Eastern ridge pattern near the end if their runs. So the same stagnant pattern of recent years whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña. 
 

Why are we even posting 300 plus runs when we know they are going to change ? Maybe it's a good idea to stay in the SNE subforum with some good analysis. 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Look how fast they are traveling. That's what we want to see.

The AO will remain negative at this time as well. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The AO will remain negative at this time as well. 

Have to get the EPO on board. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Have to get the EPO on board. 

I may be mistaken, however haven't there been a few good la Nina years where the PDO is negative? I thought El ninos typically have a trough off the west coast helping to pump the PNA. 

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are we even posting 300 plus runs when we know they are going to change ? Maybe it's a good idea to stay in the SNE subforum with some good analysis. 

 

Because there is more a chance that they will be correct when the warm signal from the Pacific is so huge.

[EastonSN+]

For my area in SW CT, our typical first snowfall over the past 40 years has been the 3rd week of December, so not sure why there is so much dismay. I want the warm phases of the MJO to happen now.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty much like clockwork every year. It’s impressive that all 3 ensembles have the familiar Aleutian ridge, Western trough, Eastern ridge pattern near the end of their runs. So the same stagnant pattern of recent years whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña. 
 

Still no evidence of a cooler/snowier pattern showing up on the ensembles. Our mild pattern might go into the the New Year 

 

nina forcing in the mjo warm phases keeping us in the same pattern 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For my area in SW CT, our typical first snowfall over the past 40 years has been the 3rd week of December, so not sure why there is so much dismay. I want the warm phases of the MJO to happen now.

Exactly.  Decembers in El nino years as usually terrible anyway.   Too much rushing of the pattern here.    Likely we get a good stretch in Jan or early Feb and hopefully a big snowstorm....

[EastonSN+]

What I like seeing on the ensembles are:

A. The "cold pool" moves to Alaska (not a great position however a better source position instead of the other side of the hemisphere), and

B. If you play the ensembles, the ridge starts to move to the PNA position. Timing aligns with phase 8 and more importantly, an El nino background.

I feel like I am reliving the 80s and 90s so something will probably go wrong, but nothing at all alarming on the ensembles. Why wouldn't one EXPECT warmth in the warm phases of the MJO? Aren't el Nino Decembers warm anyway?

I think posters today would think the world was ending if they relived the 80s and 90s.

[EastonSN+]

13 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

I see a lot of Nino standing wave here.  Which isn't terrible in most circumstances and you can get some Kelvin waves to leak east out of that.

 

But, and I'm gonna keep saying this, we need some help with source region and building some snow pack to the west still, in my view before I can start to take storm risk seriously. 

 

It's not an all out torch, but it's still relatively mild.

Montreal and eastern Canada were hit pretty hard last night. Is this a good source region or do we prefer Alaska and wester Canada epo/PNA reasons?

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still no evidence of a cooler/snowier pattern showing up on the ensembles. Our mild pattern might go into the the New Year 

 

nina forcing in the mjo warm phases keeping us in the same pattern 

When various ensemble members including the OP still have convection lingering near 120E  at the end of the run in MJO 5 you know it’s going to be a mild pattern.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Exactly.  Decembers in El nino years as usually terrible anyway.   Too much rushing of the pattern here.    Likely we get a good stretch in Jan or early Feb and hopefully a big snowstorm....

And this is TYPICAL for the 80s and 90s. A couple of good periods in a winter. 2000 through 2018 (like 55 through 69) are rare and are actually what put our average snowfall totals where they are. 70s, 80s and 90s to me ARE the norm.

The last 5 years, 1 above average snowfall winter, feels like normal to me lol. Poster may have to wait a couple decades to get 2000/2018 again.

[North and West]

I know people hear terms like MJO, PDO, El Niño, La Niña, etc and it can get lost in the translation. So a simplified version is using the term marine heatwaves. These are just blobs of much normal than normal ocean temperatures. Unfortunately as the planet warms, most of the heat actually goes into the oceans. So we have many warm blobs in the tropical and subtropical oceans.
Since the Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet and lies just west of North America, it exerts a super sized influence on our weather. Thunderstorms gravitate to the areas of warmer waters. These create giant atmospheric waves which influence where the ridges and troughs will set up. Sometimes, we get standing waves that get stuck and drive more extreme patterns here of mostly warmth but on rare occasions cold.
Unfortunately, when the Central to Western Pacific basin is much warmer than other regions, the thunderstorms line up there. And thunderstorms in those regions drive warmer patterns for us. It also also been one of the fastest warming regions of the planet. So this is why people have been referring to La Niña background state. 
When the MJO is active like it is now in the warmer phases, it can take a longer time getting to cooler phases since the Western Pacific is so warm. The MJO numbers are just regions on a map where the thunderstorms are concentrating. Plus when you have convection firing in multi warm regions like we have now, it can come out more as a chord than an individual note. 
So all these factors in recent years have been conspiring to making the Pacific Jet stronger than average which in term floods North America with mild Pacific air like we are seeing this month and many other recent ones.
 
 

Super helpful for the simple-minded folk such as myself, thank you!


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