December 2023

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today (1991-20), December days with an AO of -1 or below are as cold as all December days were during 1961-90 in NYC.

Last December was the warmest on record for a December monthly AO reading of -2.0 or lower in NYC. December 2020 was the warmest on record for a 10" or greater monthly average snowfall and a monthly AO reading from -1.5 to -1.9. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

……………..AO……..NYC T

Dec 22….-2.719….38.5°

Dec 10….-2.631….32.6°

Dec 09….-3.413….35.9°

Dec 05….-2.104….35.3

Dec 00….-2.354….31.1°

Dec 95….-2.127….32.4°

Dec 76….-2.074….29.9°


……………..AO…….NYC S….NYC T

Dec 20…-1.736….10.5”…..39.2°

Dec 02….-1.592…12.4”…..36.0°

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 2019, and really 2013, -NAO has been correlating with -PNA/+EPO, and +NAO has been correlating with +PNA/-EPO. The frequency of happenings is greater than what would be random. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today (1991-20), December days with an AO of -1 or below are as cold as all December days were during 1961-90 in NYC.

Unfortunately, this is not correct

[Allsnow]

57 degrees!!!

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. March now a winter month, December fall

The problem is the sun and daylight hours. Not our friend. Especially after week 2. One doesnt replace the other. You need Dec for a good winter

[SI Mailman]

Delivering mail and packages in short sleeves today

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thank god for blocking or it would be near 70 today 

Would rather it hits 70 to be honest. Enjoy it before the colder air and potentially snow come late month.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. March now a winter month, December fall

I am not sure if we are ever going to see another March run of snow and cold like from 2013 to 2019 again. It was like someone flipped a switch to warmer in the 2020s. I guess time will tell.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

The problem is the sun and daylight hours. Not our friend. Especially after week 2. One doesnt replace the other. You need Dec for a good winter

Agree strongly. To me a snowy December makes the winter. Put down a nice pack that can last a few weeks at least with refreshers. 
 

March snow is gone in 2-3 days. 

[MJO812]

Weeklies continue to look good near the holidays through January. It has been really consistent. 

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is no reason why a borderline super Nino event wouldn’t lead to Nino conditions. perhaps you can look back and see that, but to forecast a lack of change is silly in my opinion

Yeah I mean, who could disagree with the proposition that Niños are different than Niñas? And, to be clear, in terms of sensible weather, I am not expecting a carbon copy of last year—if for no other reason than that wall-to-wall shutouts like that are unusual.  I am just expecting the MJO and Pacific to be the same flies in the ointment that they’ve been for the last few years now.

But I do understand your point that the shift to a Niño this year could sufficiently reshuffle things enough in our favor (at least I think that’s your point—correct me if I have it wrong). I don’t see it playing out the same way, though I definitely hope to be proven wrong. 

[MJO812]

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

As I said, January 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

As I said, January 

Hopefully it's near the holidays. Haven't had a white Christmas in a long time.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures soared into the 50s and even 60s across the region today. New York City topped out at 60° and Newark hit 61°.

As a result of today's warmth, Baltimore is in the process of recording its 673rd consecutive day without an inch or more of daily snowfall. That will set a new record. New York City and Philadelphia remain mired in record streaks without an inch or more of daily snowfall.

An additional round of rain will affect the region tomorrow into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with some locally higher amounts is likely. Tomorrow will also be another mild day. Overall, the first 10 days of December look to be on the mild side of normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter.  

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was +12.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.565 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On November 30 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.104 (RMM). The November 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.781 (RMM).

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Unfortunately, this is not correct

For NYC (Central Park):

December 1961-1990: 36.6° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO -1 or below): 36.4° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO < 0): 37.6 mean temperature

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully it's near the holidays. Haven't had a white Christmas in a long time.

The last time was back in 2002. It has been more common to make it to 50° or warmer on Christmas since 2003. 
 

Data for December 25 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2022-12-25	28	14	0.00	0.0	0
2021-12-25	52	36	0.16	0.0	0
2020-12-25	61	29	0.92	0.0	0
2019-12-25	47	32	0.00	0.0	0
2018-12-25	40	33	0.00	0.0	0
2017-12-25	38	28	0.23	T	0
2016-12-25	50	36	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-25	66	57	0.01	0.0	0
2014-12-25	62	44	0.09	0.0	0
2013-12-25	31	19	0.00	0.0	0
2012-12-25	41	32	0.06	0.0	0
2011-12-25	46	31	0.00	0.0	0
2010-12-25	32	25	0.00	0.0	0
2009-12-25	38	33	0.24	0.0	2
2008-12-25	57	33	0.13	0.0	0
2007-12-25	43	35	0.00	0.0	0
2006-12-25	45	39	0.37	0.0	0
2005-12-25	54	39	0.84	0.0	0
2004-12-25	33	25	0.00	0.0	0
2003-12-25	46	33	T	0.0	0
2002-12-25	37	31	1.30	5.0	M

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the TPV with this -NAO shifted over to Eurasia leaving a mild Pacific air mass in place across North America. As we found out in recent years, -NAO and -AO patterns can be very mild for us. This isn’t like the old days around 2010 when big -AO and -NAO drops meant cold. I think Don had a great post a while back on how the -AO and -NAO has become warmer for us. 

 

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks

Yeah, winter lovers in Europe can rely solely on the -AO and -NAO and don’t have to worry about a hostile Pacific.

 

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For NYC (Central Park):

December 1961-1990: 36.6° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO -1 or below): 36.4° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO < 0): 37.6 mean temperature

I read what you said wrong, this shows even an AO under 1 now just gets us back to what we had without it

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I read what you said wrong, this shows even an AO under 1 now just gets us back to what we had without it

No worries. Have a great weekend.

[Roger Smith]

On 12/1/2023 at 1:56 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2006)
NYC: 70 (2006)
LGA: 71 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 15 (1976)
NYC: 8 (1875)
LGA: 19 (1976)

Historical:

 

1831 - The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

1896 - The temperature at Kipp, MT, rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum)

1970: Four tornadoes impacted east-central Wisconsin during the morning hours. The strongest tornado, an F3, formed at 10:15 AM near Medina in Outagamie County.  The twister moved northeast at 50 mph and destroyed twenty barns and five houses.

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Heavy lake effect snow fell downwind of the U.S. Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York reported 16 inches of snow, with thundersnow reported late in the afternoon. While the eastern U.S. experienced much colder than normal temperatures on December 1, much of Alaska was basking in above average warmth. Many daily temperature records were set across this region through the beginning of the month.

 

2006: A winter storm produced more than 6 inches of snow along a 1,000-mile-long path from central Oklahoma to northern Michigan from November 30-December 1st. The storm also produced significant freezing rain, which impacted the St. Louis area. An estimated 500 or more homes and businesses were without power in the St. Louis area after this storm.

2007 - During December 1-3, a powerful storm with hurricane force winds struck the Northwest U.S. The storm brought heavy rain and wind gusts over 100 mph, with the highest reading being 129 mph at Bay City, OR. The strong winds brought power lines down, and the heavy rain caused widespread flooding and triggered landslides (BBC News). According to reports, 8 fatalities were attributed to the storm and about 37,000 homes and businesses were left without power in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. President Bush declared a federal disaster in several counties in Washington and Oregon to provide recovery assistance (Associated Press).

2011 - Wind speeds as high as 102 MPH were measured in Centerville, Utah and surrounding cities. Damage was reported throughout Weber and Davis counties ranging from South Ogden down to Bountiful. More than 400 trees were down at the Davis Golf course alone due to the winds. Up to 54,000 residences were without power throughout the day and into the evening. Train service between Layton and Salt Lake City was suspended due to damaged train stations, debris on the train tracks, and power outages. Cleanup costs totaled $8 million in Centerville alone. No injuries were reported from the wind, but a number of injuries were reported from those helping with the cleanup effort.

I was going to post yesterday but got lost in a wilderness of forecast contests, Dec 1 1962 you can add to files:

1962 _ Canada's 50th annual football championship, the Grey Cup, was severely affected by dense fog and by the third quarter the game was halted; it was not possible to play until the next day; despite better conditions, no further scoring occurred. This occurred at the Exhibition Stadium in Toronto, known as the "mistake by the lake" ... several later Grey Cup games at the same location were subjected to heavy rain (1982) and strong winds (1965) on late Nov dates. Toronto built an indoor domed stadium in the 1990s. Vancouver and montreal also have domes but other locations sometimes used resemble Lambeau Field in Green Bay in Dec or early January. The severe fog episode in 1962 was caused by a stagnant high lasting almost a week. 

You could also add this note, perhaps to other data for Dec 3rd:

1982 _ Toronto City hit 68.4 F on this date, a full 8F warmer than its previous Dec record of 61F (Dec 31, 1875). Toronto records go back to 1840. This record has not been surpassed since 1982. The month's average 2.3C was also a new (tied 1923) record (again tied 1998) but that shared record was broken four times after 1998,  in 2006 (2.9C not a record, see 2001), 2001 at 3.2 C and most recently in 2015 at 5.2 C (and also in 2021 at 2.5 C but that did not beat 2015, 2001 or 2006). 2011, 2012 and 1984 round out the top ten. Dec is the only month to have nine of its top ten in the post-1980 era. February managed eight, 1954 and 1976 are its less recent two. 

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 55 today, foggy 46 now.

[EastonSN+]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, winter lovers in Europe can rely solely on the -AO and -NAO and don’t have to worry about a hostile Pacific.

 

 

 

 

It's great to see cold still in the Northern hemisphere. Shows that with the right setup we can get this.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 66 (1998)
NYC: 66 (1970)
LGA: 66 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1946)
NYC:  11 (1875)
LGA: 17 (1976)

Historical:

 

1896 - An early season snow and ice storm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced 11 inches of snow at Charlotte NC, and six inches at Atlanta GA. (David Ludlum)

1925 - A late season hurricane caused extensive damage across the Florida peninsula, then moved off the Georgia coast crossing Cape Hatteras as a tropical storm. The storm produced whole gales along the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England coast. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI, and reached 64 mph at Atlantic City NJ. (David Ludlum)

1950 - A late season tornado killed four persons in Madison County and Bond County, east of St Louis MO. Three tornadoes touched down in Illinois that afternoon, compared to just half a dozen tornadoes in the month of December in 115 years of records up until that time. Thunderstorms also produced hail which caused more than four million dollars damage in the St Louis area, it was the most damaging hailstorm of record for Missouri. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1968: The "Sacramento," a 250-foot fishing barge and former ferry between San Francisco and Oakland, succumb to a winter storm off Redondo Beach.

1970 - A tornado, 400 yards in width, touched down about one mile below the summit of Timpanogos Divide. Trees up to 18 inches in diameter were snapped, and some of the 38 inch snow cover was carried 1000 feet above the ground as the tornado traveled one mile. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A tornado destroyed a home four miles south of Eastwood MO. The owners were not injured in that tornado, but ironically one was killed Christmas Eve when another tornado hit the replacement mobile home on the same site. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm over the Gulf of Alaska continued to produced high winds and heavy rain along the northern and central Pacific coast. Winds gusted to 80 mph south of Port Orford OR, Stevens Pass WA was blanketed with sixteen inches of snow, and Blue Canyon CA was soaked with 1.63 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced ten inches of snow at Union City, PA. Gale force winds gusted to 55 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 20 inches at Ironwood. Heavy snow and high winds caused 150 auto accidents in Michigan, resulting in sixteen deaths and 22 injuries. Strong northwesterly winds gusted to 73 mph at Johnstown PA, and Lowville PA received 20 inches of snow in 36 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For NYC (Central Park):

December 1961-1990: 36.6° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO -1 or below): 36.4° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO < 0): 37.6 mean temperature

I honestly thought the 91 through 2020 AO < 0 mean temps would be higher by now. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's great to see cold still in the Northern hemisphere. Shows that with the right setup we can get this.

It’s just that the geographic footprint is much smaller with Arctic outbreaks nowadays like with the record 2021 cold in the Plains not making it to the East Coast. So a smaller percentage of the earths surface is able to experience record cold at any given time than in the past. But even if these outbreaks have a smaller aerial coverage, they can be intense in the more limited areas that get them. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1998)
NYC: 66 (1970)
LGA: 66 (1970)

Wow-- AO near -3 right now. 

[Allsnow]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:03 AM, Allsnow said:

60 on Saturday? Another warm start to Another December 

Ewr 61 today! 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow-- AO near -3 right now. 

Today may be the first 60° day during early December in NYC a few days after the AO going -3.3. It could also be a record for consecutive 50°+ days at the same time.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv