Allsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, bluewave said: Do you have the link to those higher res charts? https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That last VP frame still shows the MJO forcing the MJO 6 region as the RMMs are chasing convection. Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 this is a clean progression into 7-8-1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 60 on Saturday? Another warm start to Another December 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I think you guys now have the Mid-Atlantic forum beat for most negative sub-forum...congrats lol 6 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 gfs signaling that little storm to roll through our area wednesday. something to look into 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: I think you guys now have the Mid-Atlantic forum beat for most negative sub-forum...congrats lol Reality is not negative 2 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: gfs signaling that little storm to roll through our area wednesday. something to look into Agree Something to track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Reality is not negative Is it reality? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 60 on Saturday? Another warm start to Another December Keep on going 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO After seeing how hostile the Pacific has become since 18-19, the phase NAO and AO isn’t as important as it used to be. 20-21 was the only time the NAO and AO was able to coincide with a favorable Pacific. Last winter the Pacific completely muted a monthly -AO value in the -2.5 to -3.0 range which never happened before. So unless we have Pacific on our side, a -NAO and -AO will be going to waste. Hopefully we get get some semblance of a backloaded El Niño this winter with the Pacific backing off during another -AO -NAO interval. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree Something to track I guess everyone hates winter on here =( 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Is it reality? Is what reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 60 on Saturday? Another warm start to Another December 31 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: I think you guys now have the Mid-Atlantic forum beat for most negative sub-forum...congrats lol 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Reality is not negative 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Is it reality? 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I guess everyone hates winter on here =( Good late morning everyone. When Anthony fully enjoys winter. Per chance to dream, stay well all, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Keep on going Allsnow would love to see a snowy winter but he's just being honest about what he's seeing. Remember he was great last winter. He absolutely nailed it. He knows what he's talking about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 36 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: I think you guys now have the Mid-Atlantic forum beat for most negative sub-forum...congrats lol It's December 1st and we haven't had five HECS yet, clearly this winter is a bust! 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I just started reading this thread this morning and was excited when I saw it was HOT! Like maybe a snowstorm? Little did I know that winter was cancelled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, rclab said: Good late morning everyone. When Anthony fully enjoys winter. Per chance to dream, stay well all, as always …. Anthony should move to Oswego NY. They had their worse snow year on record last year and still had 47 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A climate link might be found, at least to some extent, if an attribution study finds that, for example, a marine heatwave altered the hemispheric pattern. AGW has led to a pronounced increase in the frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. Of course, internal variability will also be an important factor. In the long-range, even as there will remain a lot of variability in season-to-season snowfall, average snowfall will very likely decline as winters continue to warm. The winters in the lower Middle Atlantic region provide some insight into what lies ahead. Based on a regression equation that included Norfolk, Raleigh, Richmond, and Washington, DC (coefficient of determination: 0.836), it is likely that winters will become much less snowy, on average. The current seasonal average for New York City is 29.8”. With season-to-season variability, there will still be some snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent. For New York City and Philadelphia, average snowfall for winters with mean temperatures of 37° or above and 40° or above were: Winters with a Mean Temperature of 37.0° or Above: New York City: Mean Temperature: 38.5°; Mean Snowfall: 17.5″ (n=27) Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 39.0°; Mean Snowfall: 12.7″ (n=33) For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 40.0° or Above: New York City: Mean Temperature: 40.9°; Mean Snowfall: 10.3″ (n=5) Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.2°; Mean Snowfall: 9.9″ (n=9) Those numbers are broadly consistent with the results from the regression equation. Below is the distribution of seasonal snowfall for winters that had mean temperatures of 37.0° or above: If this data is representative, New York City's 30-year average snowfall (Central Park) could decline to about 20" by the mid-2030s. There will still be some big years. Winter 2009-10 in Baltimore and Washington, DC, provides an example of such an outcome in a warmer climate. Always love your analysis! I *think* we're underplaying the ability to capture and store carbon in the near future; remember, internal combustion engines were significantly improved in emissions and particle emissions by the catalytic converter. (If you're ever around classic cars or the Tomorrowland Speedway or two cycle leaf blowers/lawn mowers, you can immediately smell gas engines sans catalytic converters) I think we significantly underplay our ingenuity to form the planet, in both bad and good ways. Thank you for coming to my TED talk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: Anthony should move to Oswego NY. They had their worse snow year on record last year and still had 47 inches. Yep I dream about that 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 36 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: gfs signaling that little storm to roll through our area wednesday. something to look into Cmc Friday 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: Anthony should move to Oswego NY. They had their worse snow year on record last year and still had 47 inches. Tug Hill plateau. Tons of Lake Effect...problem is there is not much else there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: Tug Hill plateau. Tons of Lake Effect...problem is there is not much else there... unpopular opinion BUT as an upstate native, id take upstate over the nyc metro any day of the week. but if youre not in albs, cuse, rochester, of buffalo you got nothing to do but shovel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Tug Hill plateau. Tons of Lake Effect...problem is there is not much else there... It's a ghost town up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc Friday Ensembles also like this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997 In the absence of a pronounced and persistent SE ridge you won't see something 2015 like. 97 maybe, Dec 97 relative to 2015 and some other recent Decembers was not THAT warm. Something more like a December 99/14/18 is more likely in this pattern. One of the interesting things myself and a couple other Mets discussed in recent days is how the Op GFS/GEFS are doing the inverse of what they did last winter. Last winter we so often saw the GEFS look sort of decent days 7-12 yet the Op runs were torches. This last few days we see the reverse often, semi ugly GEFS runs but Op runs that have shown periodic colder shots and chances. Last winter more often than not those Op runs verified closer to reality. Its possible that in this regime we are in enough ensemble members are being fooled to skew the mean too far one direction. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Nothing to worry about here strong mjo pulse into 5-7. 7 getting back into the colder phases of the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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