donsutherland1 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 This is possibly the unspoken fear: As long as the formative block strengthens rather than fades after the first week of December or avoids sinking southwestward to the Hudson Bay/James Bay area, there should be some opportunities even if Arctic air doesn't get involved. A breakdown in blocking would result in the development of a milder pattern, especially as the AAM is forecast to go positive starting late in the first week of December. The latter would allow the block to protrude into the Northeast, as has happened at times in recent years, which could suppress the subtropical jet stream. At this point, things are looking more promising than last winter. But beyond two weeks, model skill is low so speculative outcomes beyond mid-December are essentially guesses right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: March ? Yeah remember when it was supposed to be a great month with tons of threats and we got nothing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 On 2/25/2023 at 5:00 PM, MJO812 said: March is going to be good Wpo going negative Epo negative Ao negative Nao negative 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 great trend in the -NAO over the last model cycle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Well December was supposed to be good last year but it wasn't. We aren't in an LA Nina anymore so expect good things. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: great trend in the -NAO over the last model cycle Gfs is loaded with potential as we head into December. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Click bait…have we not witnessed this type of blocking with a poor pac the last few years? Stop your shit bro lol 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Well December was supposed to be good last year but it wasn't. We aren't in an LA Nina anymore so expect good things. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 35 here I will finally go below freezing tonight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. Then we have the December warming trend which has the 2nd half of the month warming faster than the first half. This has lead to to regular 55°+ highs around the solstice from December 17th to 25th every year since 2011. The average December 1-15th high in NYC back in 1981 was around 39.6° and only warmed to 41.0° in 2022 for a rise of +1.4. The December 16-31 average temperature rose much more steeply from 35.2° to 39.0° for a large increase of +3.8°. So the late December average temperature in the 2020s is nearly the same as the early December temperature in the early 1980s. Snowfall has been much more variable and has been in all or nothing mode. Great outcomes from 15-16 to 17-18. Then a significant drop from 18-19 to 22-23. But we did have the great 20-21 season across the region and the January 22 record snows on Long Island. Forecasts for snow need to make it into the 120 hr or lower forecast period to be believable since we have had so many day 6-10 and 11-15 patterns which looked snowy that never verified. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 17 to Dec 25 Missing Count 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 2010-12-25 40 0 2009-12-25 39 0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 18 hours ago, Allsnow said: Ugly pac Yes thank you. Fool me once.... Unless I see a ridge out west then this pattern is worthless. It'll just be a colder rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Here's what the -NAO gets you with an ugly Pacific 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This is possibly the unspoken fear: As long as the formative block strengthens rather than fades after the first week of December or avoids sinking southwestward to the Hudson Bay/James Bay area, there should be some opportunities even if Arctic air doesn't get involved. A breakdown in blocking would result in the development of a milder pattern, especially as the AAM is forecast to go positive starting late in the first week of December. The latter would allow the block to protrude into the Northeast, as has happened at times in recent years, which could suppress the subtropical jet stream. At this point, things are looking more promising than last winter. But beyond two weeks, model skill is low so speculative outcomes beyond mid-December are essentially guesses right now. 97/98 has been my fear all along. We seem to be in a multi-year period of west coast, central u.s. troughing which could be expected after the long 2000 through 2018 epic period. surprised this pac has not improved given the recent MJO forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: 97/98 has been my fear all along. We seem to be in a multi-year period of west coast, central u.s. troughing which could be expected after the long 2000 through 2018 epic period. surprised this pac has not improved given the recent MJO forcing. Ongoing marine heatwaves are distorting the atmospheric response. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 12z euro is a good reminder why the -nao is useless with a awful pacific 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro is a good reminder why the -nao is useless with a awful pacific all major ensembles are in agreement and they all look great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: all major ensembles are in agreement and they all look great In the 11-15 day range. How many times have we been through this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: In the 11-15 day range. How many times have we been though this? what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: In the 11-15 day range. How many times have we been though this? At least as many times as you’ve posted in the past 24 hours to do nothing but argue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Those 12z/25 ensembles are not yet responding with only T-1" snow LI on GEFS/EPS and nil CMC. Still, there is hope. One negative I see is repeated CFP's with low pressure probably averaging Canadian Maritimes-Southeast Canada...best hope might be the 5th... I'd like to see a lot more digging on the short wave vort max's ...they look a little too far north for me (mainly north of 40). So far the 330PM 11/25 CPC 6-10, 8-14 day not budging much on temps here...still aoa. CPC has no sig hazards in the northeast yet for Dec 2-8. Hoping for model adjustments to convince me on snow events moving south to 40N into our area between 12/5-10. I can't visualize anything beyond that---not a long ranger. More of a modelologist as someone has mentioned. I can't outguess the week 1-2 ensembles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro is a good reminder why the -nao is useless with a awful pacific Yep lets use the op. Patience is required. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 20 minutes ago, Maureen said: At least as many times as you’ve posted in the past 24 hours to do nothing but argue. He is smarter than this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range It's a great thing that the ensembles are showing a good pattern ahead. We should all be pretty excited how this winter might be turning out to be . Even the meteorologists on Twitter who were going with a warm December are now backtracking because of the MJO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range Are you on X (formerly known as Twitter)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 25, 2023 Author Share Posted November 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Are you on X (formerly known as Twitter)? no, i could never haha the boards are enough for me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep lets use the op. Patience is required. Plus it’s only November? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep lets use the op. Patience is required. Allsnow loves a good patience pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Definitely a mild and wet start to the month. Precipitation chances every few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a mild and wet start to the month. Precipitation chances every few days Get ready for 4 months of March again. Mild & wet winter Can't get optimistic about anything unless the Pacific changes. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Get ready for 4 months of March again. Mild & wet winter Can't get optimistic about anything unless the Pacific changes. Sigh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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