brooklynwx99 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern. also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 PAC goes to crap quickly once we enter December. Blocking definitely looks to form but won’t work with the state of the pacific. Ensembles show improvements in LA LA land around the 10th but that’s just something to keep an eye on for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: PAC goes to crap quickly once we enter December. Blocking definitely looks to form but won’t work with the state of the pacific. Ensembles show improvements in LA LA land around the 10th but that’s just something to keep an eye on for now. Mjo races through the warm phases. Alot to be optimistic about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mjo races through the warm phases. Alot to be optimistic about. Meh. When has the mjo ever raced through the warm phases? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 December was always supposed to be warm so if we get anything it will be a win in my book 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Meh. When has the mjo ever raced through the warm phases? we haven’t been in a strong Nino in 8 years. the minimizing of Phases 4-6 is similar to the phantom pushes through 7-8-1 during La Ninas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: December was always supposed to be warm so if we get anything it will be a win in my book that’s the point. El Niño Decembers that feature a -NAO often end up prolonging that blocking throughout the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Meh. When has the mjo ever raced through the warm phases? That's right because this time we're going past p3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: we haven’t been in a strong Nino in 8 years. the minimizing of Phases 4-6 is similar to the phantom pushes through 7-8-1 during La Ninas It’s all speculation at this point… Let’s finally see some pac improvements to help our snow chance or this -nao will just become another waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s all speculation at this point… Let’s finally see some pac improvements to help our snow chance or this -nao will just become another waste this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored Is this a snowstorm pattern for Mid-Atlantic or Northeast? Looks like it could be temp window before warmup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this looks good to me. the NPAC won’t be as much of an issue with Nino in place, +PNA and a SE trough is favored That’s pac air coming into the conus with +epo. the ridge out west is way to flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s pac air coming into the conus with +epo. the ridge out west is way to flat huh? this is a colder than average pattern with blocking. there’s always going to be Pacific air in a strong Nino 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Ugly pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: huh? this is a colder than average pattern with blocking. there’s always going to be Pacific air in a strong Nino There is no cold air source on that map. The cooler 850’s is probably from active rainy/stormy pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons The flow is off the west coast as the ridge isn’t poleward to bring a better airmass into Canada. You will be blocking pac air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: like i’m not sure what most of you want. this is a nearly ideal pattern. way more pros than cons Nice ridge Better looking then last December. We will sure have chances coming up in 2nd half of December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 After Bamwx basically canceled December, they are on board with the negative NAO and a favorable pattern for 2nd half of December. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The flow is off the west coast as the ridge isn’t poleward to bring a better airmass into Canada. You will be blocking pac air this is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is more like it Would be a better airmass but the trough is pretty far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 CPC D8-14, Week 2-3, both issued 330PM 11/24, and the monthly Nov 16. This above is from a small group of NOAA CPC experts. Seems to me to warm a little above normal first couple days of Dec, then we deal Dec 5ish and beyond. SST's actually normal or below off the ne USA coast, mirroring the past 7 day trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Click bait…have we not witnessed this type of blocking with a poor pac the last few years? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Click bait…have we not witnessed this type of blocking with a poor pac the last few years? Yep just look at last March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 i think you guys are getting too nitpicky and have a bit of PTSD from last year hell, Feb 2010 had a trough poking into AK and not really that much ridging out west. also had a deep trough south of AK. mean trough axis was offshore we could literally get this exact pattern again and people would complain about it. hell, if there was strong WC/AK ridging along with a -NAO, people would complain about suppression. it’s gotten to be a bit much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Click bait…have we not witnessed this type of blocking with a poor pac the last few years? Are you seriously calling Earthlight clickbait? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Even Webb is changing his tune now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep just look at last March March ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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