December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[John1122]

That track on the 12z GFS should be an epic winter storm Dec-Feb but we can't get any cold air. I think we had a similar event in 2017-18ish. Whichever year it was that the gulf got snow storms and we couldn't even with a perfect track a few weeks later. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That track on the 12z GFS should be an epic winter storm Dec-Feb but we can't get any cold air. I think we had a similar event in 2017-18ish. Whichever year it was that the gulf got snow storms and we couldn't even with a perfect track a few weeks later. 

Yep. Rather frustrating brother. I recall the monster storm in Feb 73. Clouds is all we got while Ga, SC and NC got hammered. Also, I remember the Deep South getting clocked then the next system would go north and we'd get rain. Happened a good bit in the early to mid 70's I recall. 

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Agree on Holstons Post. That's a Pin worthy if there ever was. 

The Euro Weeklies now have a trough in the West to start January.  LOL.  Cosgrove mentioned a thaw was coming mid-January.  Aren't we going to have to go in the freezer first before we have a thaw?  LOL.  You all know that I like LC...but I did chuckle when I read that. I will say in LC's defense that he has been adamant that this winter would be better than the last, but that winter really wouldn't get going until late January...and I mean adamant. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies now have a trough in the West to start January.  LOL.  Cosgrove mentioned a thaw was coming mid-January.  Aren't we going to have to go in the freezer first before we have a thaw?  LOL.  You all know that I like LC...but I did chuckle when I read that. I will say in LC's defense that he has been adamant that this winter would be better than the last, but that winter really wouldn't get going until late January...and I mean adamant. 

Coz is a bit uneasy as well now i think.

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Coz is a bit uneasy as well now i think.

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

[Itryatgolf70]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

I won't give up on winter until mid January if things still look bleak then moving forward. After that, the clock is ticking with higher sun angle and other things. Higher elevations are ok because of just that. 

[PowellVolz]

.

[Daniel Boone]

36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

Yeah, remember flower bushes blooming in January, lol. Hopefully,the Strat will throw a good monkey wrench into that horrible pattern if that happens. Who knows, Strat may be messing with guidance now. 

[PowellVolz]

Some of our best winters have ended up with AN temps. Obviously it makes timing more critical but I’ll take my chances with borderline temps over an extended period of very cold air and the GOM closed for business. If we keep getting opportunities for a Miller A etc…. Eventually it will hit. I don’t want to be picky but I hate Miller B’s or some kind of handoff, overrunning event. Give me a trailing ULL following a cold front and let it ride. My point is… let’s not freak out just yet. Long ways to go.

.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

I guess the question is when will be the next bout of severe weather because we know it’s coming now.  Anytime you have above normal temperatures with cold fronts, pressing into the warmer air always spells trouble in the winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I guess the question is when will be the next bout of severe weather because we know it’s coming now.  Anytime you have above normal temperatures with cold fronts, pressing into the warmer air always spells trouble in the winter. 

I don't think anything in weather is ever a certainty.  We "should" see a mean trough over the southeast by mid-late Jan.  If so, severe is on hibernation for a while - if/when that trough is in place.  I can't speak for the rest of December, though, as we still will likely see some ridging, and that could open the door for trouble/instability.   El Nino patterns are actually known for there stability from mid winter into spring.  But as we have seen this week, the weather is gonna do what it is gonna do whether it agrees with our opinions or not. 

However, January tornadoes would be incredibly rare at this latitude, but not impossible.  Early December outbreaks are not uncommon I don't "think."  AN temps here would likely be 50s to low 60s in January...that would make it tough to seed an outbreak.  Where we need to watch is where wavelengths shorten up with a cutter, and allow warm air to surge northward in front of a front.  The Gulf of Mexico is what drives our tornado outbreaks.  We live in one of the the areas of the world where tornadoes are common, and it is directly related to that.  The GOM isn't going anywhere soon, so the potential will always be there. 

I have been in three bad tornado outbreaks.  One was in maybe in July at TRI.  Another preceded the blizzard of '93.  The third one was during the mid to late 70s in Knoxville as a kid.   Oddly, I don't remember a lot of tornado outbreaks during the Nino winters of the 90s during mid-winter.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Some of our best winters have ended up with AN temps. Obviously it makes timing more critical but I’ll take my chances with borderline temps over an extended period of very cold air and the GOM closed for business. If we keep getting opportunities for a Miller A etc…. Eventually it will hit. I don’t want to be picky but I hate Miller B’s or some kind of handoff, overrunning event. Give me a trailing ULL following a cold front and let it ride. My point is… let’s not freak out just yet. Long ways to go.

.

Hand-offs and Miller Bs are a pain.  That said, TRI scores with Miller Bs - but I still don't like them.  Great post, though.  Many great winters weren't exactly cold.  They were stormy.  I still like our last half of winter chances, but am less confident as some of the features showing up currently(GoA low and WAR) were present during some of the less snowy Nino winters.  And it is just December 11th, there is still a lot of ground to cover.  I think December, we can take off the board though unless we get a miracle.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, remember flower bushes blooming in January, lol. Hopefully,the Strat will throw a good monkey wrench into that horrible pattern if that happens. Who knows, Strat may be messing with guidance now. 

Stuff is gonna be blooming if this projected warmth(after the 20th) lasts into January.  I have stuff with full buds right now...they just haven't bloomed.  Someone had a great quote maybe in the NE forum...Christmas lights and blooming forsythia just don't go together.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

This was my general rule as a kid(and it was my rule...so TIFWIW)....if we didn't see some light accumulations by the end of December, winter was going to be tough.  During my time in Florida, I used to check back in TN to see when the first snows had arrived

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

.

JB is worried that a storm this month may cause some damage even if it is just rain.  That is crazy strong.

[PowellVolz]

Hand-offs and Miller Bs are a pain.  That said, TRI scores with Miller Bs - but I still don't like them.  Great post, though.  Many great winters weren't exactly cold.  They were stormy.  I still like our last half of winter chances, but am less confident as some of the features showing up currently(GoA low and WAR) were present during some of the less snowy Nino winters.  And it is just December 11th, there is still a lot of ground to cover.  I think December, we can take off the board though unless we get a miracle.

Yes… upper ETn does well with handoffs but you’ve got to be NE of Morristown. Similar to the winter of 96’ I believe.


.

[PowellVolz]

I don't think anything in weather is ever a certainty.  We "should" see a mean trough over the southeast by mid-late Jan.  If so, severe is on hibernation for a while - if/when that trough is in place.  I can't speak for the rest of December, though, as we still will likely see some ridging, and that could open the door for trouble/instability.   El Nino patterns are actually known for there stability from mid winter into spring.  But as we have seen this week, the weather is gonna do what it is gonna do whether it agrees with our opinions or not. 
However, January tornadoes would be incredibly rare at this latitude, but not impossible.  Early December outbreaks are not uncommon I don't "think."  AN temps here would likely be 50s to low 60s in January...that would make it tough to seed an outbreak.  Where we need to watch is where wavelengths shorten up with a cutter, and allow warm air to surge northward in front of a front.  The Gulf of Mexico is what drives our tornado outbreaks.  We live in one of the the areas of the world where tornadoes are common, and it is directly related to that.  The GOM isn't going anywhere soon, so the potential will always be there. 
I have been in three bad tornado outbreaks.  One was in maybe in July at TRI.  Another preceded the blizzard of '93.  The third one was during the mid to late 70s in Knoxville as a kid.   Oddly, I don't remember a lot of tornado outbreaks during the Nino winters of the 90s during mid-winter.

In Knoxville we had a F3 (EF3 now) touchdown from Clinton to Powell to Halls. It was really bad. 1/2 mile from my house but this was in February of 93’. Blizzard right after that.


.

[Carvers Gap]

51 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

In Knoxville we had a F3 (EF3 now) touchdown from Clinton to Powell to Halls. It was really bad. 1/2 mile from my house but this was in February of 93’. Blizzard right after that.


.

I was at UT at the time.  One of my roommates was from Powell - actually knew three of the guys from the team which went to state maybe in 89.   That year was also when Lenoir City was hit by the tornado in '93, right?  I remember seeing all of the requests for EMS on TV.  

[Carvers Gap]

58 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Yes… upper ETn does well with handoffs but you’ve got to be NE of Morristown. Similar to the winter of 96’ I believe.


.

I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job.  I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year.  It would start about the Greenville exit.  My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.  

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I lived in Knoxville in 96...first job.  I kept coming home to TRI to find mounds of snow in the parking lots that year.  It would start about the Greenville exit.  My parents had like 36" of snow between two storms.  

Yeah, great Winter up here. Miller b/  miller A hybrids, Miller B transfer's. Wise set VA Seasonal Snowfall Record that Winter. 123.4". Still stands. 

[Carvers Gap]

Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th.  It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal.  Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run.  Still there today.  That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think.   Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March.  Do I believe them?  Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences.  I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO?  Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases.  Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?

[Jed33]

We have seen big storms like this shake up patterns in the past once they move up into the North Atlantic. If it does indeed turn out to be that magnitude of a storm, it could very well be what we need to break up the WAR. Of course, it could also not be effective at that either. Time will tell I guess. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

We have seen big storms like this shake up patterns in the past once they move up into the North Atlantic. If it does indeed turn out to be that magnitude of a storm, it could very well be what we need to break up the WAR. Of course, it could also not be effective at that either. Time will tell I guess. 

Great point, and the 6z GEFS does show BN heights undercutting the ridge in the LR

[Carvers Gap]

Just a quick glance at the MJO plots this morning on CPC, and they do look like they are correcting towards the colder phases of the MJO vs the COD solutions yesterday.  What I see this morning are full, low amplitude passes through the cold phases on several models.  I would suspect that we see a full turn at normal amplitude through those phases(whatever normal is....just not low).  So, maybe we are seeing a combination of modeling missing the pass through the warm phases(consequence is delayed onset of colder pattern), and now are "seeing" the MJO move into colder phases without dying out.  I am not certain of that, but I suspect that is what caused the model adjustments that we saw a couple of days ago.  Also, I would suspect we see yet another loop through the warm phases after the potential cold phase pass.  Just looking at Holston's post yesterday, there is convection in the MJO regions which produce warm phases on MJO plots.  After that second pass through warm phases, I think Nino takes over....Cosgrove would be money if that hits.

[Carvers Gap]

12z modeling is flirting with a stalled Nor'Easter along the coast at 168ish.  ICON had a really bizarre run, but I think that is what it was getting at.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Impressive, impressive storm on both the 0z CMC and Euro operationals around the 17th.  It is a rainer(CMC has some backside flurries), but a very impressive coastal.  Powell posted a slide from yesterday's model run.  Still there today.  That is a Nino storm track, and a good sign for later this winter I think.   Interesting overnight change, the CFSv2 seasonals flipped cold for Jan-March.  Do I believe them?  Not enough to say more than a couple of sentences.  I wonder if models are correcting re: the MJO?  Again, they misread the MJO and didn't take it through the warm phases.  Maybe they have done the same with cold phases?

The JMA also has cold Jan-Mar. Of course that's been par for the course with it so, that's that but, with added support from other guidance maybe it's onto something.  Glaam going to be going extremely positive. That's typical Nino response right there and also as Larry Chuck noted in the main forum a cold SE signal. The intensity is whether general Nino cool south or a cold SE apparently irt the glaam. 

    The Coz may still be in his game as you mentioned. Dare to say, if guidance continues that way even JB may be looking better. A little late but, not denied maybe.  We've gotta give you credit here too Carver, you called the flip in mid January ans backloaded early on. If it's early Jan... Still a great call. I'm with on that now and think we still have back and forth mainly due to those SST's still supportive if MJO warm Ph passes. If those were cooler we'd be in big time business imo. 

[jaxjagman]

Euro today at least shows the MJO headed into WP/WH around Christmas,we seemingly will have to wait maybe for some sort of pattern change for awhile.MV has a vid about the extratropics and MJO correlation if you wish to watch

https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036

[Carvers Gap]

With the exception of the cool down after the coastal between Dec15-20, I really don't see a sustained cold snap on any modeling that is actually believable.  It is certainly easier to forecast warmth and be correct!  LOL.  No cold source, no delivery system if it was there, and a bad Pacific/Atlantic setup = pretty meh weather here.  That is about all that I have.  We will hope(cause that is all that we have) that the second half of winter changes up, but again, my confidence is less and less with each passing day regarding a colder second half of winter.  If we can get just normal temps during January, we could maybe score.  For now, the Canadian torch is inbound with a vengeance.  If you ever wonder what weather maps looked like during the 90s Ninos, just take a look at ensembles and extended modeling....I wish that I had better news.  

So this is how I am going to play this prolonged warm-up.  Unless you hear me talking about cooler weather after the 20th, just assume I think it is going to be warm.  I am not going to be one of those broken-record, Debbie Downers from other forums that like to rub salt in the wound, and bang their chests about how right they are.  Other than that, I may track this coastal around the 17th just for fun, and maybe some flurries to end that storm.  

[Itryatgolf70]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

With the exception of the cool down after the coastal between Dec15-20, I really don't see a sustained cold snap on any modeling that is actually believable.  It is certainly easier to forecast warmth and be correct!  LOL.  No cold source, no delivery system if it was there, and a bad Pacific/Atlantic setup = pretty meh weather here.  That is about all that I have.  We will hope(cause that is all that we have) that the second half of winter changes up, but again, my confidence is less and less with each passing day regarding a colder second half of winter.  If we can get just normal temps during January, we could maybe score.  For now, the Canadian torch is inbound with a vengeance.

Mother nature has a way of balancing things out because December will have big departures, especially nw of here. I am hoping like most that we can get a colder stormier back end of winter.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Mother nature has a way of balancing things out because December will have big departures, especially nw of here. I am hoping like most that we can get a colder stormier back end of winter.

Certainly possible and that fits my overall winter ideas.  That said, my concern is that we are long overdue for a winter with few cold snaps - another balancing act of sorts.  Two of the last three winters have been good for middle and west TN at times.  I think eastern areas have the best chance this winter as coastals spill down cold air.   But we are due for a dud.  Good winters come in cycles and so do bad ones.   A lot can change between now and late January.  Some of the control runs show a couple of 3-5 day cold snaps during January - maybe we can sync up with one of those.  For now, we have a long wait I think...hopefully I am wrong.  On the plus side, weather for running has been optimal.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say this, the system this weekend will help with drought conditions over E TN.  The slp slows down and almost stalls.