December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Silas Lang said:

I don't really understand how the front catches up east of the mountains with precipitation when it seems like oftentimes fronts can slow down and get hung up on the plateau. I am assuming it has something to do with storm dynamics or low placement? 

Turning neutral tilt too late possibly. 

[Carvers Gap]

As we wake up this morning to the news from Middle TN, I would like to express my condolences to those communities.  I think @PowellVolz said it best earlier this past week, when you see that hatch posted that early, you know it has the potential to be bad.

As for the long range, I will keep it short.  Weeklies modeling are very likely going to bust both on temps and at 500 for late December and most of January.  To clarify (edit), this means that all of those great looks that we have seen for weeks-on-end re: the end of December and early January...are not likely to verify.  Though, I do think winter makes its appearance for late January into February, but that idea is less certain now.  A back loaded winter fits climatology.  However, as others have noted, 97-98 is on the table.  Now oddly, two of those warm winters during the late 90s produced two separate heavy snow events - one in Kingsport and one in Johnson City.  Neither city saw the same snow amounts as the other.  

One thing to consider as well, if LR modeling was wrong for weeks on end...it could be wrong now.  However, synoptically, the big area of LP in the eastern Pac is the problem.  When that feature shows up on winter modeling, it is a huge problem and often degrades very slowly.  A massive Chinook is likely to scour all BN temps from Canada.  Now that doesn't mean Canadian AN temps equal AN temps here as that air is sometimes jettisoned southward by rainy coastal storms along the US EC.   AN Canadian air masses are still cold in TN.  For now, I don't see a SER in place, but I don't see air masses which can seed winter storms at lower elevations.  It is possible that storms can produce their own cold in the northwest quadrant if the storm is strong enough though.

Windows for storms with very marginal temperature profiles are roughly Dec 17th and maybe Christmas Eve.  I expect those to have rain in the valleys, but that is a guess.  The mountains could do ok.

As for when/if cold returns to Canada.....it is going to take several weeks IF the chinook unfolds as modeled.  That will erase snowpack and cold.   If this was a La Nina winter, I would say the game is up, even this early in the winter.  However, El Nino winters have a nasty habit of showing up right as winter seems over.  I suspect this is the case.

One last note, modeling has been abysmal at recognizing that the MJO is taking the tour.  It keeps trying to dive the MJO into the COD.  The MJO so far has shown higher amplitude than originally forecast.  If that is the case at the moment, modeling may be completely blind to cold showing up later this month....

For now, we will rely on storm track and marginal air masses.  That can work, but it ain't easy!

[Carvers Gap]

I will also note that during January there is a 2-3 week window (mid Jan to first week of Feb) where someone in the forum scores regardless of the set-up or lack thereof.  I suspect this will be true again, and if so, with more of a focus on eastern areas of the forum.  We are seeing hints of that even now...meaning regional placement of snow showers/flurries.

[fountainguy97]

models trending flatter today with the chance tonight. No surprise. 
 

Looking to the next system and man..what a track.. this one will be painful if we get 2" of rain in the mid-30s.

[Carvers Gap]

Just spending some more time looking at the MJO, I believe the Euro Weeklies are in error.  They have been wrong with the amplitude of the current reality, and I believe that will likely occur when it hits the cold phases as well.  Right now, the amplitude is too low, and I think that will change.  The consequences of that error is the model is way to warm for the end of the month and early January.

[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just spending some more time looking at the MJO, I believe the Euro Weeklies are in error.  They have been wrong with the amplitude of the current reality, and I believe that will likely occur when it hits the cold phases as well.  Right now, the amplitude is too low, and I think that will change.  The consequences of that error is the model is way to warm for the end of the month and early January.

The EMON looks quite similar to the CFS.Has it into Africa and IO into the new year

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As we wake up this morning to the news from Middle TN, I would like to express my condolences to those communities.  I think @PowellVolz said it best earlier this past week, when you see that hatch posted that early, you know it has the potential to be bad.

As for the long range, I will keep it short.  Weeklies modeling are very likely going to bust both on temps and at 500 for late December and most of January.  I do think winter makes its appearance for late January into February, but that idea is less certain now.  A back loaded winter fits climatology.  However, as others have noted, 97-98 is on the table.  Now oddly, two of those warm winters during the late 90s produced two separate heavy snow events - one in Kingsport and one in Johnson City.  Neither city saw the same snow amounts as the other.  

One thing to consider as well, if LR modeling was wrong for weeks on end...it could be wrong now.  However, synoptically, the big area of LP in the eastern Pac is the problem.  When that feature shows up on winter modeling, it is a huge problem and often degrades very slowly.  A massive Chinook is likely to scour all BN temps from Canada.  Now that doesn't mean Canadian AN temps equal AN temps here as that air is sometimes jettisoned southward by rainy coastal storms along the US EC.   AN Canadian air masses are still cold in TN.  For now, I don't see a SER in place, but I don't see air masses which can seed winter storms at lower elevations.  It is possible that storms can produce their own cold in the northwest quadrant if the storm is strong enough though.

Windows for storms with very marginal temperature profiles are roughly Dec 17th and maybe Christmas Eve.  I expect those to have rain in the valleys, but that is a guess.  The mountains could do ok.

As for when/if cold returns to Canada.....it is going to take several weeks IF the chinook unfolds as modeled.  That will erase snowpack and cold.   If this was a La Nina winter, I would say the game is up, even this early in the winter.  However, El Nino winters have a nasty habit of showing up right as winter seems over.  I suspect this is the case.

One last note, modeling has been abysmal at recognizing that the MJO is taking the tour.  It keeps trying to dive the MJO into the COD.  The MJO so far has shown higher amplitude than originally forecast.  If that is the case at the moment, modeling may be completely blind to cold showing up later this month....

For now, we will rely on storm track and marginal air masses.  That can work, but it ain't easy!

Looks like Eastern Canada will have a heavy Snow pack at least. If we can get ca drainage from there into storm systems riding up, may be cold enuff to get it done. 

[PowellVolz]

Yes, it should be getting out of the way...sliding into the Aleutians.  The PNA is gonna pop...just a matter of when.  I think modeling was too quick.  Though certainly the Weeklies today are strong with the PNA than yesterday.

What’s the forecast timeline for teleconnecters? 3 weeks?


.

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

What’s the forecast timeline for teleconnecters? 3 weeks?


.

Big time can kicking.  The Euro Weeklies this evening look slightly better.  I would say roughly Jan 10th is when it shows cold showing up.  At this point, I am just not sure I trust that model.  Might be better to ride w/ global ensembles d1-16 and just climatology for seasonal forecasting.  I do think we see a trough set-up shop during the last ten days of December, but with virtually no cold air to fill it.

[John1122]

Just a couple days ago we were forecast to get the holy trinity. -NAO/-AO/+PNA as we headed into Christmas and beyond. The models have flipped on the AO/NAO in the last 24 hours or so. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Looks like Eastern Canada will have a heavy Snow pack at least. If we can get ca drainage from there into storm systems riding up, may be cold enuff to get it done. 

Yeah, no winter cancel stuff from me.  Other forums have plenty of those folks.  Heck some of them are canceling multiple winters to quote one poster.  LOL.

I think we are 3-4 weeks out(minimum) from anything that even resembles a decent pattern.  That said, I do think it is highly plausible that modeling is in extreme error in plotting the MJO.  For several of the past winters, modeling just assumes the MJO is going to crash into the COD when in reality it kept on making the turn.  I do think modeling completely mistook the current MJO, and was in error in not taking it into 4-6.  I believe it is also making the same mistake for 7-2, meaning it is trying to go low amplitude or not at all while in cold phases (the same error it made during warm phases).  I would suspect we see a correction in LR modeling during the upcoming week.  In some ways, the Euro Weeklies began that adjustment this evening.  The consequence of the MJO miscalculation is that modeling brought cold too quickly.  Now the consequence is that is maybe muting a significant cold shot just after the New Year.  We will see.

The 12z GEFS looks great at 500...just don't look at temp anomalies.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. 

Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now:

 

Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after

 

 

 

Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada.

All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so.

Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US:

 

 

It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. 

One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching:

 

It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. 

Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now:

 

Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after

 

 

 

Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada.

All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so.

Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US:

 

 

It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. 

One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching:

 

It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off. 

 

Keep us updated. I'm hoping we get what we need to get to shake things up moving forward, whatever that is lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. 

Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now:

 

Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after

 

 

 

Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada.

All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so.

Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US:

 

 

It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. 

One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching:

 

It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off. 

 

That dateline firing "should" allow the MJO to rotate thought some of the good phases(cold).  It is one reason I think MJO plots are in error today.  Awesome post.  

Yeah, the jet extension (which I rarely pay attention to...unless someone posts about it) is problematic as is the cold moving eastward towards Alaska(JB posted about that today).  And looks highly, highly likely that a Canadian chinook is inbound.  That said, volatility usually leads to more volatility....my guess would be is that the volatility coin eventually lands heads-up for us.

[Matthew70]

I’m thinking for the next month we are looking at another chance at severe wx before we get a chance at cold & snow. We have been up & down with these fronts & temps  & it’s only a matter of time before another round happens where cold meets warm. 

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m thinking for the next month we are looking at another chance at severe wx before we get a chance at cold & snow. We have been up & down with these fronts & temps  & it’s only a matter of time before another round happens where cold meets warm. 

Exactly.   I agree with the overall sentiment.  
 

But if there is a trough set up over the SE, that makes it much tougher to get severe.  During spring when a trough is over the SE, it pretty much ends severe season.  Cool and rainy conditions make for poor setups for severe.  We need warm conditions with cold fronts charging southeast...like yesterday.    I have not talked about a torch.  A torch here is often linked to a SER or Bermuda high.  I would be surprised to see either.  For now just think weather like you might see in England.  I think we will see a lot of cloudy days in the 50s with cool overnight temps.  
 

But I do agree that we will likely see severe again before we see measurable snow.  Just watch for a ridge rolling through like we had last week?  When it departs due to a Canadian air mass...severe follows.  I don’t remember a lot of severe with zonal flow.  We need an amplified pattern with short wavelengths.  

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. 

Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now:

 

Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after

 

 

 

Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada.

All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so.

Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US:

 

 

It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. 

One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching:

 

It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off. 

 

Right on the money with analysis I believe. 

 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, no winter cancel stuff from me.  Other forums have plenty of those folks.  Heck some of them are canceling multiple winters to quote one poster.  LOL.

I think we are 3-4 weeks out(minimum) from anything that even resembles a decent pattern.  That said, I do think it is highly plausible that modeling is in extreme error in plotting the MJO.  For several of the past winters, modeling just assumes the MJO is going to crash into the COD when in reality it kept on making the turn.  I do think modeling completely mistook the current MJO, and was in error in not taking it into 4-6.  I believe it is also making the same mistake for 7-2, meaning it is trying to go low amplitude or not at all while in cold phases (the same error it made during warm phases).  I would suspect we see a correction in LR modeling during the upcoming week.  In some ways, the Euro Weeklies began that adjustment this evening.  The consequence of the MJO miscalculation is that modeling brought cold too quickly.  Now the consequence is that is maybe muting a significant cold shot just after the New Year.  We will see.

The 12z GEFS looks great at 500...just don't look at temp anomalies.  

Exactly my take now Brother. As you mentioned earlier, we still have a shot or two of getting something by Christmas in lower elevations. Hopefully, we get some of that cold from Eastern Canada or at least System manufactured from aloft to get it done.

     It's still rather heartbreaking to see that 500 pattern and it be too warm in December !! 

[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Right on the money with analysis I believe. 

 

Exactly my take now Brother. As you mentioned earlier, we still have a shot or two of getting something by Christmas in lower elevations. Hopefully, we get some of that cold from Eastern Canada or at least System manufactured from aloft to get it done.

     It's still rather heartbreaking to see that 500 pattern and it be too warm in December !! 

The 18z GEFS actually looks decent by Dec 26th - like the old Euro Weeklies.  Source regions are AN though.  It is pretty textbook Nino - SE trough but more than marginal temps(meaning cold is absent).  Again, their should be an MJO correction.  That is a good step late in that run.  That would probably deliver cold by the second week in January.

The 18z operational has high elevation snow on the 25th.....

[Matthew70]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Exactly.   I agree with the overall sentiment.  
 

But if there is a trough set up over the SE, that makes it much tougher to get severe.  During spring when a trough is over the SE, it pretty much ends severe season.  Cool and rainy conditions make for poor setups for severe.  We need warm conditions with cold fronts charging southeast...like yesterday.    I have not talked about a torch.  A torch here is often linked to a SER or Bermuda high.  I would be surprised to see either.  For now just think weather like you might see in England.  I think we will see a lot of cloudy days in the 50s with cool overnight temps.  
 

But I do agree that we will likely see severe again before we see measurable snow.  Just watch for a ridge rolling through like we had last week?  When it departs due to a Canadian air mass...severe follows.  I don’t remember a lot of severe with zonal flow.  We need an amplified pattern with short wavelengths.  

I hope I eat a lot of crow.  At least we are getting some rains.  I will take the 50s & rain.  Much better than the 33 & rain. lol.  I’d love to see a good snow but like you have said.  Patterns usually last 6 weeks before they change if I remember correctly? Surprised with all the volcanoes going off that colder wx is not more globally. Strange times for the world. 

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS actually looks decent by Dec 26th - like the old Euro Weeklies.  Source regions are AN though.  It is pretty textbook Nino - SE trough but more than marginal temps(meaning cold is absent).  Again, their should be an MJO correction.  That is a good step late in that run.  That would probably deliver cold by the second week in January.

The 18z operational has high elevation snow on the 25th.....

Well John has been firm in his warm Novembers usually are a telling sign……

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I hope I eat a lot of crow.  At least we are getting some rains.  I will take the 50s & rain.  Much better than the 33 & rain. lol.  I’d love to see a good snow but like you have said.  Patterns usually last 6 weeks before they change if I remember correctly? Surprised with all the volcanoes going off that colder wx is not more globally. Strange times for the world. 

Volcano latitude plays a part, and we certainly don't want an underwater volcano going off again!  

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well John has been firm in his warm Novembers usually are a telling sign……

In middle and west TN, your winters have been much different than ours in TRI during the past three years as La Nina winters are better for you all.  Normally, NE TN is the second snowiest place in the forum - not so during moderate to strong Nina years.  Middle and West TN have had more cold and much more snow during the past three years....Moderate to strong Nina winters in NE TN usually are not great.

Re: the November rule, it certainly has significant merit though there are some notable recent exceptions like most wx analogs.  I do think that if things cool off early, that is a good sign that we don't enter winter with so much warm air to scour out of the SE and the East Coast...probably also means a good snowpack is building to our north and the delivery mechanism for that cold is active.  Those wx patterns tend to repeat during winter.  One rule that is interesting is that where it rains during fall tends to also signal where cold will go during winter.  I have followed that rule for a long time, and I would guess it is connected to John's guidance in some way.  I think I got the "rain rule" from JB.  But after significant drought this fall, my confidence in a cold winter was low.  Seasonal to slightly BN are what I have for E TN and AN for middle and west re: temps for DJF.  I will say that my confidence in having much cold at all is dropping quickly - but that is just a guess.  The Nino winters of the 90s had some nada(no snow) winters, and most were lousy IMBY with the exception of some notable one-off snows.  The 2000s have seen some better Nino winters.  I think the best thing that we can do is to set or exceptions very low, and enjoy what we get.  If we are at the New Year with little on the radar so to speak, we need to really dial it back.  

As for extended LR modeling, the Euro Weeklies have been so bad...I am no longer going to use them as part of discussion for this forum.   The GEFS extended have been much better as have the seasonal CANSIPS.   

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I hope I eat a lot of crow.  At least we are getting some rains.  I will take the 50s & rain.  Much better than the 33 & rain. lol.  I’d love to see a good snow but like you have said.  Patterns usually last 6 weeks before they change if I remember correctly? Surprised with all the volcanoes going off that colder wx is not more globally. Strange times for the world. 

For your region, I think Nino climatology works against you during most years.  I don't think you will eat crow on this one.

The 6-8 week rule is generally a good one.  I will probably start the clock on this one when it started raining a couple of weeks ago.  So, the second or third week of January should be a shake-up to that run.  Now, if the November rule is in play this winter...the shake-up could very well lead to an even warmer pattern during the second half of winter.  Let's hope 2000s Nino climatology wins out, and we see winter during the second half.  Those terrible Nino winters of the 90s had many mowing their yards by late January or earlier.  

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

For your region, I think Nino climatology works against you during most years.  I don't think you will eat crow on this one.

The 6-8 week rule is generally a good one.  I will probably start the clock on this one when it started raining a couple of weeks ago.  So, the second or third week of January should be a shake-up to that run.  Now, if the November rule is in play this winter...the shake-up could very well lead to an even warmer pattern during the second half of winter.  Let's hope 2000s Nino climatology wins out, and we see winter during the second half.  Those terrible Nino winters of the 90s had many mowing their yards by late January or earlier.  

Yeah, let's hope the '94-95 and 97-98 one's in particular doesn't come back to haunt us. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, let's hope the '94-95 and 97-98 one's in particular doesn't come back to haunt us. 

They are definitely on the table if extended LR modeling is even halfway correct.  I tend to think we get the "good" El Nino, but can-kicking is usually the first sign that winter is not going as planned.  And this recent can-kick was a big one...if indeed it was a can kick.  Still wouldn't surprise me to see modeling come back around to a better solution at 500 patterns by just after Christmas.  Cold air is still way out there iMO.

[Daniel Boone]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They are definitely on the table if extended LR modeling is even halfway correct.  I tend to think we get the "good" El Nino, but can-kicking is usually the first sign that winter is not going as planned.  And this recent can-kick was a big one...if indeed it was a can kick.  Still wouldn't surprise me to see modeling come back around to a better solution at 500 patterns by just after Christmas.  Cold air is still way out there iMO.

It's about to the point to where I feel I'll be lucky to see an even Average Winter again considering my antiquity and agw along with SST'S continually working against us overall. Lol. 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

It's about to the point to where I feel I'll be lucky to see an even Average Winter again considering my antiquity and agw along with SST'S continually working against us overall. Lol. 

Remember this is only December 11th. Try to remain optimistic. Hopefully mother nature will give us our opportunity at cold and snow this winter but it definitely will be a while. 

[Carvers Gap]

Tagging onto Holston's great post(post of the year worthy) about the jet extension...the MA has a great discussion this afternoon about the same post.  I encourage everyone who isn't a met to read them(Holston's and the MA).  That extension originally would have led to a nice -EPO and +PNA.  What modeling missed was that it was going to almost hit an extreme level which caused the Aleutian low to become stronger, and it formed a massive GoA low which will cause the chinook.  Long story short, modeling is showing a retraction of that jet, and that should allow for a more typical Aleutian low placement/intensity, and consequently by early January, allow for BN heights in the SE(reference Brooklyn's post there...and paraphrased).   Some strong posters basically noted it was less of the normal can-kicking and mentioned that there were good reasons for this delay, but that it was only a delay of about a week.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Remember this is only December 11th. Try to remain optimistic. Hopefully mother nature will give us our opportunity at cold and snow this winter but it definitely will be a while. 

Yeah, I know. Just a bit irritated over the stretch we've gone through I suppose. In my long life I've lived through good streaks and bad one's. Forecasted back before a host of Model's were available as well new research information. We've came a long way but, there's times not much better. So many variables, minute factors that morph and become major player's in a relatively short time. Monkey Wrenches is a good term for them. 

     Regardless of knowing these things, I always hated to fail in forecasting. I'm sure we all are pretty much that way. 

      

       

     

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Tagging onto Holston's great post(post of the year worthy) about the jet extension...the MA has a great discussion this afternoon about the same post.  I encourage everyone who isn't a met to read them(Holston's and the MA).  That extension originally would have led to a nice -EPO and +PNA.  What modeling missed was that it was going to almost hit an extreme level which caused the Aleutian low to become stronger, and it formed a massive GoA low which will cause the chinook.  Long story short, modeling is showing a retraction of that jet, and that should allow for a more typical Aleutian low placement/intensity, and consequently by early January, allow for BN heights in the SE(reference Brooklyn's post there...and paraphrased).   Some strong posters basically noted it was less of the normal can-kicking and mentioned that there were good reasons for this delay, but that it was only a delay of about a week.

Agree on Holstons Post. That's a Pin worthy if there ever was.