December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[tnweathernut]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some great model runs for the timeframe before the 10th, and we had better hit.  

The new GEFSext MJO plot doesn't even get the MJO out of phase 5 until Jan 28th. It is conceivable that the entire month of January could be spent in warm phases of the MJO - and still not even rotate into 6 which is the warmest.  Now, I am not convinced this is what occurs, but that plot is the worst case scenario - and that is the eastern ridge hooking into the NAO scenario likely.  That said, notice the MJO is not out of phase 8 yet, and most modeling didn't have the current stall in 8.  However, seeing the MJO stall out in 5 would be a surprise to me......but the plot below would basically wipe out out best climatology from Jan 15th to roughly Feb 7th.   Again, it is possible this is completely wrong, and I will probably look at that scenario later.  Think last year where the MJO wouldn't leave the warm phases....this winter, it should really not want to go there.  The CFSv2 seasonal this morning has flipped January to warm.  Basically, the CFS is banking on the second half of January being very warm.  Most LR modeling is flirting with a western Atlantic ridge which is hooked into the NAO for an undetermined duration after Jan 10th.  That is a huge problem.  Let's hope that is in error.

 

 

 

That connection has been more common than a disconnected AR/NAO the last decade.  Definitely going to have to be watched.  Except from mid March through April.  Then the -NAO tends to be solid with the ability to swamp us with 38-42 degree rainstorms.  lol

[PowellVolz]

Nice burst of snow/sleet in NKnox Co


.

[Jed33]

This has been a pretty steady light snow shower for awhile now. I don’t remember any models except maybe the 3k showing this for this morning. Hopefully it will over perform overall and tonight when cooler temps move in we can get at least some light accums.

[bearman]

16 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

This has been a pretty steady light snow shower for awhile now. I don’t remember any models except maybe the 3k showing this for this morning. Hopefully it will over perform overall and tonight when cooler temps move in we can get at least some light accums.

It is pretty rare that we get suprises.  When I was a kid there was nothing more exciting to me than waking up in the morning with that insulated feeling that you get on the house from an unexpected snowfall covering the roof and running to look out the window to see if I was interpreting the feelings correctly.  I think the surprise was always the best part of the experience.  Sorry should be puting this in banner.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Winter Wx Advisories now posted for the spine of the Apps...

[Carvers Gap]

SWS posted or TRI, portions of the Plateau, SW VA:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
834 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>017-035-042-044-046-081-082-102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-292100-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Morgan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN-Northwest Carter-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-
Washington VA-
Including the cities of Andrews, Marble, Topton, Hiawasse Dam,
Murphy, Unaka, Violet, Shooting Creek, Brasstown, Hayesville,
Tusquitee, Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction,
Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette,
Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue,
Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee,
Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway,
Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam,
Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Greeneville, Johnson City,
Elizabethton, Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak,
Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton,
Big Frog Mountain, Ducktown, Turtletown, Rose Hill,
Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee,
Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker,
Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon
834 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2023 /734 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023/

...Light Snow Showers Today Through Saturday...

A slow moving winter weather system will bring light snow showers
to the Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, southwest North
Carolina, and northeast Tennessee today through Saturday. The
snow may mix with rain at lower elevations during the warmer hours
of the afternoon.

Snow accumulations for most areas are expected to be only around
a dusting and limited to grassy or elevated surfaces, mainly for
locations above 1500 feet elevation. Mountains and ridge tops
above 2500 feet elevation may receive up to one inch of snow
accumulation. Relatively warm road temperatures will melt any snow
for all but the highest elevation roads. Anyone driving on these
mountain roads, especially those with a northward facing slope
that receive limited sunlight, should be prepared for possible
slick spots.

 

[Daniel Boone]

Light snow began here around 10:30. Temps running just above freezing here. 34 now 33 at onset. Looks kike a dusting on mountain from 2000 ft on up so far. 

[Dsty2001]

Been steady light snow for several hours, no transition to rain happened and the temps have barely climbed here.  This constant light snow all day is gonna help cool the ground somewhat, also this doesn't seem as moisture starved as they've been saying?  Idk probably wishful thinking lol

[*Flash*]

Here's OHX's chart recapping December 2023. Pretty much went as expected. Funny how +3 in a winter weather month can seem so seasonal these days, though part of that is due to recency bias (in December's case, 2015 and 2021 were blowtorchy, 2019 wasn't far behind). Given the ENSO state in light of the climate era we’re in, I'll take a December that failed to crack the Top 20 warmest of all-time and run with it. 'Twas also a minor miracle we cracked 3" of rain for the month. Still have a long way to go to cure the drought conditions around here.