Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 First full SPV split I've seen in the long range this season on the 0z GFS Sadly the 6z wasn't as enthusiastic, but it is still way out there. GFS was trying to get to the above a couple times yesterday, but didn't quite make it. Here is the same evolution at 50 mb: Should be a fun 3D vortex tomorrow AM. It only runs the previous days 0z data to make that visual, so we won't have tonight's 0z for the 3D images until tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Blizzard warnings have been raised over the Plains. That, in turn, sets the stage for a colder pattern over our area to be ushered in later this week.. I had a similar thought yesterday. Seasoned weather weenies know to root for snow in other locations. I can't recall the last time I was so stoked to see Nebraska getting a foot of snow. It's like we're watching Mother Nature line up the dominoes... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Ski resorts, particularly Snowshoe, have one of the best looking early January forecasts I can remember. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Shout out to @stadiumwave who posted this in the main forum El Nino thread. I hadn't even thought to check the mean yet. 6z GEFS mean has a split too: Also question for stadiumwave if you read this, which gif host do you sue to get the higher resolution gifs? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 The 6z GFS full-run snow map.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 General ob in passing as I read today's updates: It sure seems whatever transpires in the short to mid-term pattern-wise will be fluid with a decent ceiling for amplification. I will not speak to any specific system timing; however, it sure seems like there's a better chance of local winter weather mischief as opposed to a grinch-like torchy pattern locking in. The latest weather vids I've watched from DT and BamWx have been encouraging. Even when you talk about MJO progression into mild phases, it seems we have half the primary NA teleconnections cooperating at any given time. Not seeing much evidence to unfavorable stalls anywhere. I'll take it two days into calendar winter. Could you link those videos please so I can follow their pages? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Whew. The 12z GFS just put it on TRI for Fri/Sat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Whew. The 12z GFS just put it on TRI for Fri/Sat. That upper low will be another good NAMing for someone over the next few days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 The system that follows around day 9-10 missing the TN Valley to the south interests me…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The system that follows around day 9-10 missing the TN Valley to the south interests me…. Yeah, lots of energy flying around on modeling the next ten days. It Will be interesting to see if we can get some cold air to cooperate with us on one of these upcoming storm systems. Gotta love the recent trends on storm tracks though! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Should be possibly a cold front around New Years day as a trough is going through East Asia today but the NAO looks +ive generally cold chasing rain right now look.Still looks like a -ve NAO/AO as we head towards wk 2 of Jan but the PNA is more neutral right now by the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18z GFS giving us a dose of nostalgia for Christmas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18z gefs with the best mean yet. Looks like this one is legit. The start is almost on high res models believe it or not. looks like a 36hr event in the mountains. Pretty typical in the higher end NW events. The high res are going to be pretty for sure haha 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18z GFS giving us a dose of nostalgia for Christmas Glad to see you back. You still on VQ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Glad to see you back. You still on VQ? . Oh yeah, mostly lurking but I’m always around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Oh yeah, mostly lurking but I’m always around. I got off for a while, just couldn’t take some of the stuff going on the site. I’m back on as GSM_Vol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1739256578346299588/photo/2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas Mr.Bob,i see you lurking 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Mr,Bob dont speak much these days huh...lol...Merry Christmas to everyone !! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 'Twas a night before the solstice, when all through the land, Not a snowflake was found to help us in hand. The elves had worked hard with no reprieve, And while Santa made plans there was too much to grieve. To have true Christmas bliss we'd need some white fluff, But like every year our sees of powder were rough. No sleigh rides across town and no skiing nearby, Not even from far away could snow be spied! But we held firm hope and wished real loud: Please let this change for our holiday crowd! We sure really knew that it wouldn't work out- We never get rewarded with frozen clout! In other places kids put on their boots; Ours just sit by sadly who use many reproofs ! Will the reindeer ever soar 'cross the sky? Will there ever come transformation or is it goodbye? For all those whose joy will likely prove fleeting- To you I give lots of comfort greetings! Merry Christmas to all! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas (Eve....24th run) from your favorite ext global ensembles....2x 46day and 1x35day snow maps. Euro control is picking up on two storms - Jan 12th and Jan 22nd. When snow gets to the Panhandle....usually a good thing on modeling. Modeling definitely is keying on an inland runner Miller A primary track with likely some Miller B thrown in as well. Snow pack to our north means cold air could return in a hurry if the MJO will allow it or the NAO locks. No idea if correct, but enjoy! 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas to everyone & your families! It’s a wet Christmas but I will take it. We need the rain. Thanks to all who makes this the best wx board forum on social media. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas (Eve....24th run) from your favorite ext global ensembles....2x 46day and 1x35day snow maps. Euro control is picking up on two storms - Jan 12th and Jan 22nd. When snow gets to the Panhandle....usually a good thing on modeling. Modeling definitely is keying on an inland runner Miller A primary track with likely some Miller B thrown in as well. Snow pack to our north means cold air could return in a hurry if the MJO will allow it or the NAO locks. No idea if correct, but enjoy! Miller B’s are not friendly to us west of 40/81. Seems like we always end up getting dry slotted during the handoff but NE Tennessee and the plateau seems to do well. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 51 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Miller B’s are not friendly to us west of 40/81. Seems like we always end up getting dry slotted during the handoff but NE Tennessee and the plateau seems to do well. . I don't think Miller Bs help any of us....I was just explaining the snowpack over the Midwest. Hybrids work up here though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I don't think Miller Bs help any of us....I was just explaining the snowpack over the Midwest. Hybrids work up here though.My bad. I read you wrong. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Last winter, we didn't even see many winter storms on modeling, even d+10. Well, the 12z GFS pretty much builds a glacier in some areas. Is it right? Probably not at that level, but storms are showing up around the 10th. @tnweathernutmentioned that in a recent post. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 12z ensembles(CMC and GFS) are rolling currently, and many members do show chances for light accumulations later this week. There are a wide range of solutions ranging from west to middle to eastern forum areas or some combo thereof. Good luck to modeling as it tries to figure that one out. I do think the pattern after next weekend looks really good FWIW. edit: To clarify, modeling looks good through maybe the 12th before taking a 10-20 day break. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone ! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1739373353310265673/photo/1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 hopefully we see our first snow of the year here .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 A slow-moving closed upper-level low will be the main feature to watch through the extended. On Wednesday, this low slowly tracks southeastward through Missouri, and by late Wednesday night, shower activity may begin to develop across far northwest portions of our area. Showers spread eastward through Middle TN through the day on Thursday, and then likely become focused across the east by early Friday. This is a cold system so temperatures will fall with its arrival which of course has an impact on our precipitation type. With temperatures in the low to mid-30`s to start the day Thursday, precipitation will likely begin as a rain- snow mix before changing to primarily rain as temperatures warm into the 40`s. A changeover back to snow or a rain-snow mix would then be favored Thursday night and into Friday morning as temperatures fall again. As far as accumulations go, at this time it`s still not looking like anything to get too excited about. Model guidance is in disagreement about how far south the upper-level low will manage to track. The GFS and its ensembles in particular track a stronger, colder closed low directly overhead, and as such, have greater probabilities of accumulating snow. It`s definitely something to watch to see if that trend persists, but for now, am leaning towards the majority of guidance which doesn`t dig the low quite as far south. Rain and snow showers come to an end Friday as the closed low finally exits. By the end, best probabilities of accumulating snow will be along the Cumberland Plateau. Some locations in Fentress/Cumberland counties may receive accumulations near a half inch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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