December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah no kidding.  The wind is going to be crazy. Also they are calling for liws around 16 so I could only imagine the windchill. 

MRX mentioned blizzard conditions and very low visibility for higher elevations.  @fountainguy97 was feeling bad for starting a thread, but that deserves a thread for sure.  I just posted the MRX disco in the event thread for it.  Crazy.

[Carvers Gap]

All of that said, the EPS needs full support from the GEFS before I am on board.  Again, it is just a share.  The EPS has flipped on a dime more that once this winter.  I still have whiplash from the last one.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS is one possibility of where this pattern may go.  

[PowellVolz]

The 6z GFS is one possibility of where this pattern may go.  

I just want a stress free snow, just once. No warm nose, no boundary layer issues, no 500 mile track swings, etc… give me mid to upper 20’s surface temps and a phasing GOM low pressure. I’m not asking for too much am I?


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[Carvers Gap]

24 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I just want a stress free snow, just once. No warm nose, no boundary layer issues, no 500 mile track swings, etc… give me mid to upper 20’s surface temps and a phasing GOM low pressure. I’m not asking for too much am I?


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I know, right!   

[Carvers Gap]

PNA for the win?  We really don't need all of Canada to be cold with the set-up being modeled which is about ten days out(not months or weeks).  We need Quebec to be cold, and it is likely going to be.  While the rest of Canada is warm, Quebec is the fridge so far this winter.  Ensembles are cooling off quite a bit right around the 28th or even earlier.  I don't know if the BN heights in the SE are transient or semi-stationary around that time - proceed with caution.   MJO plots are hinting at a stall in cold phases, but that is likely the same error from a couple of weeks ago where modeling tried to end the MJO before reaching the cold phases - that looks to be a really bad error/bias in modeling(underestimating the MJO pulse's ability to keep going).  Honestly, I would be really surprised if we don't snow snow IF, IF, IF that verifies.  And you haven't heard me say that for E TN in quite a while.   That is a really wintry pattern on ensembles, and the 12z GEFS looks as bullish as the EPS yesterday.

[Carvers Gap]

Modeling during the past 3-4 days regarding the MJO and warmth.............

[Carvers Gap]

Most of this in our sub forum falls later in the run...special zoom-in of the GEPS for TRI peeps.  Decent numbers this far out.

 

[tnweathernut]

Interesting to note the big system that just missed to our east was projected to be a southern apps mauler (albeit mostly rain).  I thought this might make the system we have now further north and east.  I don't really bring this up for that reason though.  Just something to watch as the winter progresses.

[PowellVolz]

Interesting to note the big system that just missed to our east was projected to be a southern apps mauler (albeit mostly rain).  I thought this might make the system we have now further north and east.  I don't really bring this up for that reason though.  Just something to watch as the winter progresses.

I was surprised it trended SE, not something you see much.


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[PowellVolz]

Question… is there any hints of a SE ridge in the LR? I’m not really seeing but I’m not good at some of the LR maps. My point is.. that kinda bothers me a little. We need a little SER to keep systems from tracking over Cuba.


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[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Question… is there any hints of a SE ridge in the LR? I’m not really seeing but I’m not good at some of the LR maps. My point is.. that kinda bothers me a little. We need a little SER to keep systems from tracking over Cuba.


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Not really, but it would be rare not to have it at some point.   Mid January would be my best guess.  

Modeling diverges a bit after the first week of January with some runs trying to pull the trough into the West for a couple of weeks while others counter that with a -NAO(more of a nationwide cold-ish outbreak).  Overnight extended modeling(weeklies) were the warmer version, but really with it still being almost three weeks away...anything is on the table with recent model flips.  The MJO is forecast to hit the warm phases during the middle weeks of January(and crawl through them), but who knows.  Now, the BOMM stalls the MJO in cold phases.  If the MJO stalls there, that would be more than stellar.   MJO forecasts this winter have been turrriiiiblllle.   Cosgrove thinks a mid Jan thaw, and I would have a hard time disagreeing with that.  But to get a thaw, we have to see some cold first which we should.  Now, the Holy Grail, is to get cold while the MJO is in the warm phases...and the Euro Weeklies do indeed try that mid-court bank shot.  Like LC, I do like late Jan into Feb.  Days are getting longer which is not great, but with so many coastals of late...have to think somebody in our forum makes bank if so.    If the MJO plot is correct, we rotate into colder phases during our stormiest time of winter (late Jan/early Feb).

So, with a thaw showing up in Jan....maybe some SER will accompany that.  Maybe the bigger story is the NAO showing up in the longer range.  That block would produces sliders and prevent cutters, and could mute the MJO.  So, if we don't get a mini-SER, the NAO would maybe be the next best thing.  

[nrgjeff]

Basketball metaphors are how to wake me from a coma. 

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Now, the Holy Grail, is to get cold while the MJO is in the warm phases...and the Euro Weeklies do indeed try that mid-court bank shot. 

Asia cold is in full swing right now. China and both Koreas snow cover is much above normal. Nasty Siberian airmass is over China. High press is very robust. 

Nothing of note over North Ameria at this time. However some models at least jostle the Strato PV. This would be a case of working bottom up.

We would look for the Urals / Scandanavia high press (esp 500 mb ridge not shown) to retrograde toward Greenland. We'll see. 

[dwagner88]

On 12/18/2023 at 10:16 AM, PowellVolz said:

I just want a stress free snow, just once. No warm nose, no boundary layer issues, no 500 mile track swings, etc… give me mid to upper 20’s surface temps and a phasing GOM low pressure. I’m not asking for too much am I?


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Early January 2011 overrunning event. Only time in my life there was a stress free snow. Zero modeling had us getting missed, and temps were in the low 20's when it started. The models had that one keyed in from 7 days out. Even the superstorm was in doubt by many. February 2015 was close to stress free, but not as certain via modeling.

[Carvers Gap]

Whew, ensembles are cold this afternoon.  The GEPS is an icebox.

[PowellVolz]

Early January 2011 overrunning event. Only time in my life there was a stress free snow. Zero modeling had us getting missed, and temps were in the low 20's when it started. The models had that one keyed in from 7 days out. Even the superstorm was in doubt by many. February 2015 was close to stress free, but not as certain via modeling.

I remember that. Didn’t we have another overrunning event at the first of February? Both had really cold temperatures


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[fountainguy97]

I don't post a lot about my thoughts for seasonal guidance but I'll let it fly. 
 

I feel pretty good about the transition into the new year. Almost every major snow I can remember from my days in Eastern NC came during a pattern transition. Whether into a good one or into a poor one. It seems a lot of those transitions have big exclamation points (storms) on them to start and end. 
 

We are in a 2 week transitory pattern before the new regime takes hold last few days of this year into January. This may be a semi-brief wintry spell as we may have a brief warmup after the first week of January before the real cold arrives later in the month. But regardless we should have a window of real opportunity. 

look at the absolute chaos on the Gfs starting next week.

 

I think this sorts out for a blockbuster storm toward new year. This doesn't mean blockbuster in the way of snow for our specific backyards but for someone I'd be surprised if we make it out without an event. 

Look at the GEFS. Some downright crazy solutions on it around the new year. 

 

I don't think this is a head fake because the ULL that kicks this transition off is actually nearly onshore already before it spins around in the Central US for a week. So this isn't fantasy land. This transition begins happening over the next couple days. As the ULL exits I'd look for a piece to rotate around and bring the storm chance around New Year. 

 

again this feels different to me (a real change and not a head fake) because our pattern flipper ULL is already on stage. 
 

we probably do warm up after this into mid-January. Hopefully we can score over new years!
 

carry on 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Look at the GEFS. Some downright crazy solutions on it around the new year

I like it when the GEFS from College of Dupage has creamsicle on some of the members for our area.
 

Some people calls it orange, I calls it creamsicle. 

[John1122]

The CFS from this morning was quite incredible. If this comes to pass, barring a drought of epic proportions of some very unusual cutters that open the dry ice box, we'd likely pile up winter events forum wide. To put this in perspective these aren't far off January into Early February 1985 numbers and are spot on Jan/Early Feb 1996 numbers.

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies reflect many of the MJO indices which take the MJO and absolutely crawl through the warm phases - like a 20-25 day crawl or more.  Hoping that isn't real.  If it is, we get about ten days to start January which are good, and then burn about 3 weeks of prime winter w/ a trough out West.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro Weeklies reflect many of the MJO indices which take the MJO and absolutely crawl through the warm phases - like a 20-25 day crawl or more.  Hoping that isn't real.  If it is, we get about ten days to start January which are good, and then burn about 3 weeks of prime winter w/ a trough out West.

I know,where does the MJO go when we get near the mid month of Jan?If the CFS is anywhere right,much of Jan shouldnt be that horrid

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I know,where does the MJO go when we get near the mid month of Jan?If the CFS is anywhere right,much of Jan shouldnt be that horrid

If we are not to lose a large chunk of our best climatology(and assuming the MJO plots are right about 20-25 day rotation through the warm phases), there will have to be a counter balance.   There are times when we have stayed cold during warm phases of the MJO(maybe 95-96?).  It is rare, but it can happen.  This winter kind of has that feel that we could buck the MJO. JB mentioned the -AO could counter the MJO.  I have no idea it that happens, but the Weeklies do hint at that.  

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If we are not to lose a large chunk of our best climatology(and assuming the MJO plots are right about 20-25 day rotation through the warm phases), there will have to be a counter balance.   There are times when we have stayed cold during warm phases of the MJO(maybe 95-96?).  It is rare, but it can happen.  This winter kind of has that feel that we could buck the MJO. JB mentioned the -AO could counter the MJO.  I have no idea it that happens, but the Weeklies do hint at that.  

Yeah, right with you there man. Remarked in SE Forum regarding that. That's really the only fly in the ointment from what would be a great Jan thru February imo. The MJO zooming through cold phases but crawling through the warm. Why couldn't it be the other way around, lol. Hopefully, goes liw amp warm and blocking will counter. The ace for us as far as a memorable old fashioned Winter Pattern is the Strat. If it occurs, could be an epic February as at least part of that period the MJO should be in cold phases. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, right with you there man. Remarked in SE Forum regarding that. That's really the only fly in the ointment from what would be a great Jan thru February imo. The MJO zooming through cold phases but crawling through the warm. Why couldn't it be the other way around, lol. Hopefully, goes liw amp warm and blocking will counter. The ace for us as far as a memorable old fashioned Winter Pattern is the Strat. If it occurs, could be an epic February as at least part of that period the MJO should be in cold phases. 

Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb.  That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter).  And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases.  But HLB could counter balance that.  The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb.  I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx .  Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan.  But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb.  That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter).  And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases.  But HLB could counter balance that.  The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb.  I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx .  Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan.  But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.

Yeah. I think we have a decent shot at a couple respectable Snowfalls the first week of January before the possibility of the MJO screwing things up. We still may get a surprise by the end of this Month. May be something similar to what we just had or a little better, imo.

   I'm with you on the idea that even if the MJO does do as projected, we still won't torch and may even score a time or two. Feb. Does look good overall as of now. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Whew, I hate to can-kick to Feb.  That rarely works out, but can-kicking did during 09-10 - but we had an early start there that moderated(no such thing this winter).  And when I say crawling, I am talking 15 days just to get through the first half of the warm MJO phases.  But HLB could counter balance that.  The set-up would be the dam breaking by the first or second week of Feb.  I do think I remember also that phase 3 of the MJO isn't bad for North Carolina @GaWx .  Main concern with a strat split is that really only helps later in Jan.  But we will see....this seems like a winter that when it gets cold, it may find a way to stay that way or at least seasonal.

Indeed, phase 3 on average is near normal for temperatures in NC in winter:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Euro Weeklies reflect many of the MJO indices which take the MJO and absolutely crawl through the warm phases - like a 20-25 day crawl or more.  Hoping that isn't real.  If it is, we get about ten days to start January which are good, and then burn about 3 weeks of prime winter w/ a trough out West.

Don’t forget that the great cold snap of 12/23-26/22 was actually during a high amplitude phase 5:

 

[John1122]

The GFS and Canadian both have a snow event and it's a week out instead of 300+ for a change. 

[Windspeed]

I'm really digging the setup for next weekend through New Year's week. Cold will be in place. Just need the storm tracks to cooperate.